NYT/Sienna: AZ - Biden+8
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
May 23, 2024, 07:51:48 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  NYT/Sienna: AZ - Biden+8		 « previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3
Author Topic: NYT/Sienna: AZ - Biden+8  (Read 3446 times)
Ferguson97
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,269
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: October 05, 2020, 11:53:46 AM »
Logged
Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,421
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: October 05, 2020, 11:54:14 AM »
Wow!
Logged
xavier110
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,578
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: October 05, 2020, 11:54:37 AM »
Acorn macadamia cashew pistachio NUTTTTT
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,025
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: October 05, 2020, 11:55:37 AM »
COVID parade bump.
Logged
WD
Western Democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,585
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -0.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: October 05, 2020, 11:56:24 AM »
Quote from: SirWoodbury on August 29, 2020, 11:21:06 AM
OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!
Logged
Panda Express
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,578


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: October 05, 2020, 11:58:49 AM »
I like how Arizona just skipped being a swing state and went from Lean R to Lean D
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,587
Venezuela


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: October 05, 2020, 11:59:12 AM »
Crosstabs: https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/az100120-crosstabs/a77605c32cd8f31e/full.pdf

Quote
In a sign of a brewing suburban backlash against the president, Mr. Biden’s lead in Maricopa County, the Phoenix-anchored population hub of the state, matches his statewide advantage. He’s leading by nine points in the county, which accounts for over 60 percent of the state’s population.
Logged
redjohn
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,698


Political Matrix
E: -3.35, S: -4.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: October 05, 2020, 11:59:26 AM »
Biden's the clear favorite here. Is AZ going to vote with the nation, despite voting 5.5% to the right of the NPV in 2016? Looks very possible.
Logged
Dr. Arch
Arch
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,453
Puerto Rico


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: October 05, 2020, 12:00:05 PM »
Holy almond nut macademia moly Surprise
Logged
tagimaucia
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 570


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: October 05, 2020, 12:00:38 PM »
Eh, it's not Lean D relative to the country based on all available evidence though.  If Biden does wins AZ by 8, he's still gonna be winning nationally by even more.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,542
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: October 05, 2020, 12:01:02 PM »
Quote from: Panda Express on October 05, 2020, 11:58:49 AM
I like how Arizona just skipped being a swing state and went from Lean R to Lean D

It Virginia-ed.
Logged
Hydera
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,545


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 05, 2020, 12:01:07 PM »
Atlas: Just you wait!! that sympathy bump will pop up one day!! trumps gonna ride that sympathy bump to the sunset victory!!
Logged
kireev
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 294


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 05, 2020, 12:02:42 PM »
« Edited: October 05, 2020, 12:07:40 PM by kireev »
Trump +6 in 2016 sample. Last time it was Hillary +1 sample and Biden lead by 9.
Logged
VAR
VARepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,753
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 05, 2020, 12:03:12 PM »
Trump approval: 45/52 (-7)

Favorabilities:
Trump: 45/52 (-7)
Biden: 52/45 (+7)
Harris: 43/44 (-1)
Pence: 44/45 (-1)
Logged
ajc0918
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,918
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 05, 2020, 12:03:15 PM »
Thank You Kelli Ward!
Logged
Indy Texas
independentTX
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,280
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: -3.48

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 05, 2020, 12:03:39 PM »
The typical Republican strategy is to offset tanking in the suburbs with ramping up margins with rural whites.

The problem with Arizona is that there are hardly any people living in the rural areas to begin with. Other than the Native American tribes, nobody there has very deep roots.
Logged
redjohn
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,698


Political Matrix
E: -3.35, S: -4.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 05, 2020, 12:03:49 PM »
Biden's strongly favored here in a way HRC never was. Excellent news for the Biden campaign. Polling indicates he's strongly favored in *at least* AZ+WI+MI+PA, which is all he needs to win. Anything else is icing on the cake.
Logged
Hope For A New Era
EastOfEden
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,719


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 05, 2020, 12:04:01 PM »
Wow. Arizona's doing a Virginia.
Logged
Rep Jessica
Jessica
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 831
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 05, 2020, 12:04:51 PM »
I'll believe it when I see it.
Logged
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,982


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 05, 2020, 12:05:25 PM »

Logged
Penn_Quaker_Girl
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,421
India


Political Matrix
E: 0.10, S: 0.06

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: October 05, 2020, 12:06:10 PM »
Quote from: redjohn on October 05, 2020, 12:03:49 PM
Biden's strongly favored here in a way HRC never was. Excellent news for the Biden campaign. Polling indicates he's strongly favored in *at least* AZ+WI+MI+PA, which is all he needs to win. Anything else is icing on the cake.

If we factor in a NE-02 win for Biden, he wouldn't need PA (or FL, for that matter). 
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,774


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: October 05, 2020, 12:12:30 PM »
« Edited: October 05, 2020, 12:17:14 PM by TiltsAreUnderrated »
October 1-3
655 likely voters
MoE: 4.2%
Changes with September 10-15, 2020 poll

Biden 49% (n/c)
Trump 41% (+1)
Jorgensen 3% (-1)
Someone else 1% (n/c)
Not voting for the president 0% (n/c)
Don't know/refused 6% (n/c)
Logged
Bootes Void
iamaganster123
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,677
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: October 05, 2020, 12:14:54 PM »
Will 2020 be a rejection of reaganism? It's looking like it
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,647


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: October 05, 2020, 12:15:03 PM »
Quote from: kireev on October 05, 2020, 12:02:42 PM
Trump +6 in 2016 sample. Last time it was Hillary +1 sample and Biden lead by 9.

Oof. That means it's even worse for Trump than it appears.
Logged
Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
darthpi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,707
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.13, S: -6.87

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: October 05, 2020, 12:15:17 PM »
This is one of the best polls I have seen all year. Biden is absolutely crushing it.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.044 seconds with 12 queries.