NYT/Siena: Biden +7% in PA, +5% in FL

[ultraviolet]

ya'll really think trump will only get 43% in florida based on this sh**tty poll? LMFAO john mccain lost it by like 2 points in the 2008 landslide some of ya'll need a reality check - it's going to be a 1-2 point race regardless who wins.

Nope, just that Trump having a lot of trouble getting over 43% while he's in the hospital after a horrific debate performance and a horrific year is bad news for him.

i mean are you going to post the same crap everyday? we all know the polls are sh**t nothing is going to change in 30 days either ur wasting ur time.

Only you think the polls are sh**t because they don’t show what you want them to show

[kireev]

Previous poll in PA had Biden +9, this one +7, so it seems like a 2-point drop, but it's not. They just had a good sample for Biden last time and just OK this time. It used to be Clinton +2 in 2016 and now it's Clinton and Trump at 39, so exactly a 2 point difference. Party ID was Dem +4 and now it's REP +1. Of course none of these could change in several days, it's just all about the samples.

[Devils30]

Biden led in Hillsborough county by 14 in a poll this week. Even if South Florida has no improvement from 2016, his I-4 improvement should be enough. I also suspect he is doing better along I-75 on the west coast.

[kireev]

I also want to note that it's not surprising to have a Clinton +1 sample in FL. Trump won seniors by 17 points in FL in 2016 and they were 21% of the electorate. I probably won't surprise anyone but in 4 years older voters die proportionally more often than younger voters.

[Lief 🗽]

Reading Nate Cohn’s tweets summarizing the results is hilarious. You can almost imagine him holding back tears, forced to report on how poorly his beloved Mr. Trump is doing in these new polls, desperately clinging to whatever scraps of bad news for Biden he can find.

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Siena Research Institute on 2020-10-02

Summary: D: 49%, R: 42%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Florida President by Siena Research Institute on 2020-10-01

Summary: D: 47%, R: 42%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[xavier110]

The 55 disapproval in PA four weeks before the election is wooooof.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

FL
September 30 - October 1
710 likely voters
MoE: 4.2%
Changes with October 13-16, 2019 poll

Biden 47% (+1)
Trump 42% (-2)
Jorgensen 2%
Hawkins 1%
Someone else 0% (but some voters)
Not voting for President 0% (but some voters)
Don't know/refused 8%

PA
September 30 - October 2
706 likely voters
MoE: 4.1%
Changes with September 25-27 poll

Biden 49% (n/c)
Trump 42% (+2)
Jorgensen 3% (+1)
Someone else 0% (but some voters) (n/c from "Someone else" at 0% but with some voters)
Not voting for President 0% (n/c)
Don't know/refused 5% (-3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

ya'll really think trump will only get 43% in florida based on this sh**tty poll? LMFAO john mccain lost it by like 2 points in the 2008 landslide some of ya'll need a reality check - it's going to be a 1-2 point race regardless who wins.

Nope, just that Trump having a lot of trouble getting over 43% while he's in the hospital after a horrific debate performance and a horrific year is bad news for him.

i mean are you going to post the same crap everyday? we all know the polls are sh**t nothing is going to change in 30 days either ur wasting ur time.

His observation is valid.  If you don't like it, you're probably not going to enjoy this forum in the next month.

[Sbane]

The 55 disapproval in PA four weeks before the election is wooooof.

This is important. I highly doubt anyone who disapproves of him will vote for him. How can he win PA if he only gets 45% of the vote? Even if 3-4% vote for a third party candidate.

[ExSky]

The FL Poll has Biden winning Hispanics 58-34 and winning Miami-Dade 61-30. I still remember this Dave Wasserman tweet about Trump winning Hispanics by 2 points.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1301754070349340678

Lot of these polling pundits have been overpredicting the crap out of republicans because they are cowards and want to hedge their bets against twitter insults

[Bootes Void]

Biden led in Hillsborough county by 14 in a poll this week. Even if South Florida has no improvement from 2016, his I-4 improvement should be enough. I also suspect he is doing better along I-75 on the west coast.

I can see Biden making big gains on the space coast. They tend to be more college educated but have trended away from Dems for some reason

[Person Man]

The recent COVID scare pretty much ends Trump’s campaign in Florida.

[Lief 🗽]

Today's polls are so good for Biden that we've broken the graph in the website's polling average:

[ProudModerate2]

Two huge, crucial states.
If these are the final numbers, I would be very happy.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

The FL Poll has Biden winning Hispanics 58-34 and winning Miami-Dade 61-30. I still remember this Dave Wasserman tweet about Trump winning Hispanics by 2 points.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1301754070349340678

Wasserman has had a lot of weird takes lately. He was mocking newspapers for endorsing Clinton in 2016 just the other day.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Note for anyone who posts these polls: Siena College (the entity here) is spelled with only one "n".  Sienna with two "n"s is the name of a pigment or a minivan.

Yes, I'm a pedant.  Can't help it.

[Hammy]

Florida still tells us nothing. Neither are getting less than 48-49% in the state.

[DaleCooper]

Florida still tells us nothing. Neither are getting less than 48-49% in the state.

I wouldn't say it tells us nothing. A Republican incumbent polling at 42% in Florida a month away from election day is pretty telling in and of itself, even if Biden isn't at 50.

[Jay 🏳️‍⚧️]

The FL Poll has Biden winning Hispanics 58-34 and winning Miami-Dade 61-30. I still remember this Dave Wasserman tweet about Trump winning Hispanics by 2 points.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1301754070349340678

Wasserman has had a lot of weird takes lately. He was mocking newspapers for endorsing Clinton in 2016 just the other day.

He also talks about dumb crap like Whole Foods communities and Cracker Barrel communities instead of affluent suburbs and rural areas like normal people.

[forza nocta]

Uhh these NYT polls are becoming basically useless with the # of undecideds they have

[Lief 🗽]

Would be nice if NYT broke down the "Don't Know/Refused" numbers. Voters who refuse to answer are different from undecided ones.

[BlueSwan]

Reading Nate Cohn’s tweets summarizing the results is hilarious. You can almost imagine him holding back tears, forced to report on how poorly his beloved Mr. Trump is doing in these new polls, desperately clinging to whatever scraps of bad news for Biden he can find.

What? Where do you get the idea that Cohn is a trumpist??

[Lief 🗽]

Reading Nate Cohn’s tweets summarizing the results is hilarious. You can almost imagine him holding back tears, forced to report on how poorly his beloved Mr. Trump is doing in these new polls, desperately clinging to whatever scraps of bad news for Biden he can find.

What? Where do you get the idea that Cohn is a trumpist??

He’s probably not literally a Trump supporter but he definitely acts much more excited for pro Trump polls than pro Biden polls.