NYT/Siena: Biden +7% in PA, +5% in FL

[JRP1994]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1312412737490890754

[SaneDemocrat]

Great for Biden,especially Florida but I don’t like the number of undecideds.This isn’t May.

[Dr. Arch]

Very nice post-debate polling. More indications that Biden overwhelmingly won it.

[Stuart98]

The surveys began Wednesday, before the early Friday announcement that President Trump had contracted the coronavirus. There was modest evidence of a shift in favor of Mr. Biden in interviews on Friday, including in Arizona where a Times/Siena survey is in progress, after controlling for the demographic and political characteristics of the respondents.

One day of interviews is not enough to evaluate the consequences of a major political development, and it may be several days or longer before even the initial effects of Mr. Trump’s diagnosis can be ascertained by pollsters.

Very good polls for the former VP. Tentatively moving Florida back to Lean D in my ratings.

[Rand]

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

[Sir Mohamed]

Does October 2020 mean these polls were, at least partially, done after Trump catched the virus? I hope we see polls coming in soon to reassure me Biden is still ahead by healthy margins.

If accurate, Biden should carry FL even if undecideds break for Trump by more than half.

[Holmes]

Does October 2020 mean these polls were, at least partially, done after Trump catched the virus? I hope we see polls coming in soon to reassure me Biden is still ahead by healthy margins.

If accurate, Biden should carry FL even if undecideds break for Trump by more than half.

September 30 - October 1

[Thomas D]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1312413340799586305

[BlueSwan]

Very very nice indeed.

[kph14]

The FL Poll has Biden winning Hispanics 58-34 and winning Miami-Dade 61-30. I still remember this Dave Wasserman tweet about Trump winning Hispanics by 2 points.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1301754070349340678

[VAR]

I never bought Florida voting to the right of GA/IA/NC/OH, so I’m not surprised at all. Fundamentals matter more than polling.

FL
Trump approval: 45/52 (-7)

Favorabilities:
Trump: 44/53 (-9)
Biden: 52/44 (+8)
Harris: 46/41 (+5)
Pence: 46/44 (-2)

Hispanics (n=156): Biden 58-34 (+24)
65+ (n=213): Biden 47-45 (+2)

I-4 (n=149): Biden 51-38 (+13)
Miami-Dade (n=78): Biden 61-30 (+31)
North/Rural (n=121): Trump 49-40 (+9)
Peninsula (n=249): Trump 50-40 (+10)
Southeast (n=114): Biden 56-27 (+29)

PA
Trump approval: 42/55 (-13)

Favorabilities:
Trump: 44/54 (-10)
Biden: 53/46 (+7)
Harris: 48/44 (+4)
Pence: 47/46 (+1)

Allegheny (n=71): Biden 61-31 (+30)
Central (n=99): Trump 58-35 (+23)
East (n=148): Trump 46-41 (+5)
Northeast (n=64): Biden 48-40 (+8)
Philadelphia (n=78): Biden 70-24 (+46)
Philly suburbs (n=155): Biden 60-32 (+28)
West (n=92): Trump 61-34 (+27)

[Skye]

Crosstabs: https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/flpa-0930-crosstabs/16c21b7ab34ed4d1/full.pdf

[Buzz]

Lots of undecided in FL, borderline worthless.

[JRP1994]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1312415506809401346

Inject it (the poll; not bleach)

[Yank2133]

The FL Poll has Biden winning Hispanics 58-34 and winning Miami-Dade 61-30. I still remember this Dave Wasserman tweet about Trump winning Hispanics by 2 points.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1301754070349340678

Wasserman sucks so much as a pundit.

[Buzz]

I guarantee Trump wins Florida.  I will not post until March 2022 if Trump loses the state.  11/7/2020-3/1/2022

[redjohn]

Trump continuously hitting this ~43% ceiling in crucial battleground states (and nationally) is such horrible news for the incumbent, no serious person can say he's favored to win re-election.

[republican1993]

ya'll really think trump will only get 43% in florida based on this sh**tty poll? LMFAO john mccain lost it by like 2 points in the 2008 landslide some of ya'll need a reality check - it's going to be a 1-2 point race regardless who wins.

[Yank2133]

ya'll really think trump will only get 43% in florida based on this sh**tty poll? LMFAO john mccain lost it by like 2 points in the 2008 landslide some of ya'll need a reality check - it's going to be a 1-2 point race regardless who wins.

Of course not. NYT never pushes leaners.

[Holmes]

ya'll really think trump will only get 43% in florida based on this sh**tty poll? LMFAO john mccain lost it by like 2 points in the 2008 landslide some of ya'll need a reality check - it's going to be a 1-2 point race regardless who wins.

No one thinks Trump will only get 43% in Florida. But constantly hovering around that number in multiple polls is not a good sign.

[redjohn]

ya'll really think trump will only get 43% in florida based on this sh**tty poll? LMFAO john mccain lost it by like 2 points in the 2008 landslide some of ya'll need a reality check - it's going to be a 1-2 point race regardless who wins.

Nope, just that Trump having a lot of trouble getting over 43% while he's in the hospital after a horrific debate performance and a horrific year is bad news for him.

[It’s so Joever]

Too many undecideds.

[republican1993]

the 2016 vote for clinton vs trump is very wonky over 10% didnt vote and they have clinton head by one point in florida 2016 vote (weird) and trump clinton at 39-39 lol k

[republican1993]

ya'll really think trump will only get 43% in florida based on this sh**tty poll? LMFAO john mccain lost it by like 2 points in the 2008 landslide some of ya'll need a reality check - it's going to be a 1-2 point race regardless who wins.

Nope, just that Trump having a lot of trouble getting over 43% while he's in the hospital after a horrific debate performance and a horrific year is bad news for him.

i mean are you going to post the same crap everyday? we all know the polls are sh**t nothing is going to change in 30 days either ur wasting ur time.

[Alben Barkley]

There still may be justice for the way the Democrats treated Trump. This will be their reward for their bogus Russian collusion charge and investigation and a bogus impeachment.  They will reap what they sowed.