Will there be a sympathy/rally around flag bump for Trump or hurt him - megathread

[Non Swing Voter]

Amazing to me that some people believe COVID being the #1 story in the news benefits Trump in any way.

True.  RBG's death now feels like a distant memory.

[Illini Moderate]

“Well, I wasn’t going to vote for him because he’s mishandled this whole pandemic thing from the start by not taking it seriously, but now that he personally has contracted the virus, and may become even less able to lead the country, I just feel bad for him, y’know? So I’m going to vote for Trump.”

I don’t want to put too much faith in the logic of the average American swing voter, but do you really think that enough people are going to think like this to change the dynamics of the race?

They're going to sympatize more with Trump, because he went out to face the virus, meanwhile Biden sits in his basement all day.

Biden is quite literally on a train tour right now visiting several different states? Are you lying or just willfully blind to reality?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I'm a little surprised we haven't gotten a right-wing take yet of "Brave Trump risked the virus while Cowardly Biden hid from it". (I'm confident it's coming in some form within the next 24 hours.)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

200K people died due to Trump, why should we feel sorry for him, it's just the flu that will go away, no need to wear a mask. He already has white male support, females and AA whom are traumatized by Covid aren't gonna feel sorry for him

[Non Swing Voter]

I think this forum has the right take.  People will be sympathetic to him but this just reminds people of his recklessness and when people step into the voting booth, if anything, they will think he's not fit to lead (in terms of seriousness and health).  He was the one bringing up Biden's health throughout the campaign btw.  

Also, this isn't something that just impacts him.  He's just one of the 7+ million who has now gotten it because of his own failed response.

[Gracile]

Probably not, no. If anything, this reinforces negative perceptions in the public of Trump's consistent downplaying of the virus for months.

[Sir Mohamed]

My first instinct after learning Trump was tested positive yesterday night was Yes. But I'm actually not sure want kind of voter would actually change their vote because of this? Most Dems may not wish him health-related harm, but voting for him because of that? But I'm not sure. Depends on how his infection is going. If his condition worsens, he may get a few extra votes. I'm more worried about Trump dying and Pence getting a mandate for appearing like a stable and sane leader, despite his positions on tons of issues out of step with the American public. Then, after some weeks, people wake up and realize they elected a religious fundamentalist.

Him not being on stage could have two contradicting effects: He won't energize his supporters as much, but Trump being silent is better for him. That said, I doubt he'll stop tweeting unless he's in very bad shape. So as long as he's using his Tweetie gun, he should be fine. Would actually be the best thing than can happen: Trump tweeting continues to create controversies that hurt his numbers, but it means he's not suffering too much (which, again, I don't wish him despite by strong dislike for him).

Anyway, I wish this never happened. Neither for Trump personally, nor for the campaign as whole.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

No.

It’s more likely to dent support and finish his campaign. It will lower Trump enthusiasm. Biden is on route to being one of the luckiest persons to win a presidential election - he’s done nothing to earn it, and had just benefited from external circumstances.

[Galeel]

I'm gonna say there will be no bump for now for the simple fact that nothing ever bumps anything in any direction. The polls now are basically the same as they were 3 years ago.

[roxas11]

No.

It’s more likely to dent support and finish his campaign. It will lower Trump enthusiasm. Biden is on route to being one of the luckiest persons to win a presidential election - he’s done nothing to earn it, and had just benefited from external circumstances.[/b]

Biden was beating Trump by 11 points in a poll taken by Morning Consult in 2017....
so Im wondering what external circumstances are you even talking about

[solidcoalition]

Possibly, yes. Too soon to tell.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Possibly, yes. Too soon to tell.

Why should there be a sympathy bump and there is 200K people killed from Covid and he issued no natl mask mandate, this is right wing talk to get Trump back in

[Non Swing Voter]

No.

It’s more likely to dent support and finish his campaign. It will lower Trump enthusiasm. Biden is on route to being one of the luckiest persons to win a presidential election - he’s done nothing to earn it, and had just benefited from external circumstances.

Done nothing to earn it?  He has worked in public service his entire adult life and was VP for 8 years.  The reality star did nothing to earn it.  And he's not "lucky" - he's consistently led Trump in the polls even before the was the nominee, which is why Trump got himself impeached to try to get Biden out of the race.

[ProudModerate2]

He'll probably gain 3-4 points

LOL.
What the hell is this?

[ProudModerate2]

I'm a little surprised we haven't gotten a right-wing take yet of "Brave Trump risked the virus while Cowardly Biden hid from it". (I'm confident it's coming in some form within the next 24 hours.)

Not sure if you are being comedic, or you didn't read all the posts before yours.
But SirWoodbury pretty-much did exactly that. (See his post on prior page. I also posted his comment below.) ...

"They're going to sympatize more with Trump, because he went out to face the virus, meanwhile Biden sits in his basement all day."

[redjohn]

Uh, no, he will not. This sinks his campaign. He's not going to be campaigning for two weeks, and COVID is going to be the frontline story with just a month until election day. He's over.

[Calthrina950]

I'm a little surprised we haven't gotten a right-wing take yet of "Brave Trump risked the virus while Cowardly Biden hid from it". (I'm confident it's coming in some form within the next 24 hours.)

Not sure if you are being comedic, or you didn't read all the posts before yours.
But SirWoodbury pretty-much did exactly that. (See his post on prior page. I also posted his comment below.) ...

"They're going to sympatize more with Trump, because he went out to face the virus, meanwhile Biden sits in his basement all day."

I noticed this, and elsewhere, it seems like Trump's supporters are already trying to "explain away" his contracting the virus, by declaring that he will be "just fine" and again insisting that he hasn't downplayed the pandemic-or that it still isn't as serious as it actually is (yes, these two strands of argument defy logic and contradict each other, but so much does at this point).

[Rand]

I love my COVID-free candidate

[Calthrina950]

I love my COVID-free candidate

I don't think you should be too confident. Let's wait until the results for Biden's test come back to make that declaration.

[Alben Barkley]

“Well, I wasn’t going to vote for him because he’s mishandled this whole pandemic thing from the start by not taking it seriously, but now that he personally has contracted the virus, and may become even less able to lead the country, I just feel bad for him, y’know? So I’m going to vote for Trump.”

I don’t want to put too much faith in the logic of the average American swing voter, but do you really think that enough people are going to think like this to change the dynamics of the race?

Yes.

It’s a bold man who stares down logic and reality in the face and says: “No. I reject you! I will replace you with my own, alternative facts!”

Well, “bold” is one word for it anyway...

[Alben Barkley]

I'm gonna say there will be no bump for now for the simple fact that nothing ever bumps anything in any direction. The polls now are basically the same as they were 3 years ago.

This. For the love of god, the race has been so extremely consistent it’s insane. NOTHING is going to make people suddenly change their minds on Trump. NOTHING.

[AGA]

There is a difference between approval going up and Trump actually improving in H2H polls.

[Gren]

I'm sorry to say this because most people in this forum are sensible individuals, but having seen what we've seen, I now expect literally anything to happen. Too many supposedly "undecided" Americans seem to need very little excuse to vote for Trump. I'm not saying it will happen, hope it doesn't, but it can.

[TC 25]

I think it will be a net gain for Trump.  He emerges from quarantine saying "I had it, I quarantined and now I'm fine.  Let's get to work!"

The base will be bolstered, and a few on the fence will be be impressed.   A 3-4 point race by Election Day.

[Horus]

I think it will be a net gain for Trump.  He emerges from quarantine saying "I had it, I quarantined and now I'm fine.  Let's get to work!"

The base will be bolstered, and a few on the fence will be be impressed.   A 3-4 point race by Election Day.

This sounds right. If Trump thought this would hurt him we wouldn't have heard about it. It's just too convenient for him.