Cook moves Iowa and Ohio to Tossups

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/electoral-college-rating-changes-ohio-and-iowa-move-toss

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Ohio's late shift to a toss-up is rather surprising to me.  I just assumed it would be a "perpetually lean-to-tilt Trump" state.  

And perhaps it still is, but this definitely isn't the sort of movement on these states that Trump needs right now.  He needs to be pulling swing states over to his side of the mud-pit.  

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ohio I can see, but the Iowa move is surprising to me.  Although it's close, Trump seems to have a consistent (small) lead there.

[redjohn]

I expect Trump to open up small yet consistent leads in polling over Biden here in a few weeks, and the state is lean R going into election day. That being said, Biden's numbers have been very impressive given most of us didn't expect IA to be competitive in this election. Biden could win it if he made some visits and put more resources into it, but it's obviously not really worth much investment because the real race will be decided in PA+WI+MI+FL+AZ.

[SnowLabrador]

Ohio is justified, but this is probably the last time it's competitive at the Presidential level until the next realignment. As for Iowa, I don't buy it, given recent polling history in the state.

[Adam Griffin]

I stand by my "convergence theory" regarding OH, as well as IA being the superior option:

Triage Ohio.

The rest are still winnable by Democrats.

The southern half of the state is increasingly being influenced by an expansion of Southern cultural hegemony, yet possesses none of the black population necessary to counter the intensity of that effect. The western portion of the state is influenced by the Midwest, but is also the most GOP-friendly portion of the state [and arguably the entire region] and therefore doesn't enjoy the elasticity of the broader region. The eastern portion of the state is influenced by the Northeast (albeit its more Rust Belt variety), but is the least educated and poorest segment of the state: exactly the types who are flocking to the GOP and who have no regrets about it.

Best for Democrats to triage any races not involving Brown right now and not waste millions (tens of millions?) more once again on a state that's gone!

Fundamentally, it comes down to my belief that OH is long gone for Democrats in presidential elections and essentially straddles three regions where none of the advantages but all of the disadvantages for Democrats exist (it takes in the most GOP-friendly and inelastic part of the Midwest, some of the least educated segments of the Northeast & the expanded cultural influence of the South without black voters); I think IA still has the propensity to be elastic enough to vote Democratic if the nominee is winning by 5 points or more in the PV, and I believe Bernie would be well-suited for the state in particular.

IA should have been moved before OH. A few OK public polls for Ohio do not a victory make. We've been through this multiple cycles now. IA at least has a large base of white self-identified liberals that ameliorate the trends we've been seeing in OH for years now.

[wbrocks67]

Ohio I can see, but the Iowa move is surprising to me.  Although it's close, Trump seems to have a consistent (small) lead there.

The last 3 top quality polls were Biden +3, tied, and Trump +3, so average them out and its a straight tossup.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ernst is gonna lose

[Xing]

Given how polling has been in both states, I'd keep them as Lean R for now, though of course it's possible that the polls will be closer to accurate this time. If either state flips, though, the 400 EV Bidenslide is real.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

My most recent prediction has Ohio as a Biden tossup and Iowa as a Trump tossup. There's been nothing in the last few polls or in the news to make me change that.

[TDAS04]

Trump will probably end up winning both in the end, but not by much.

[ProudModerate2]

OOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH  YEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!!!!!!

[Pro-Israel, anti-Bibi]

I give the Trump the edge but it will be close.

I never bought the conventional wisdom that Iowa had suddenly become an impenetrable solid red state. Any state that voted for Obama (except maybe Indiana) is within reach in the right environment. And going by the Morning Consult approval tracker, Trump's approval in Iowa tanked hard within a year of being in office.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

[mileslunn]

Ohio makes sense if you look strictly at demographics.  While percentage with a college degree is below national average thus helps GOP, its urban vs. rural split is very similar to national average while its only slightly whiter than country as whole due to small Hispanic community.  Percentage African-American is pretty much bang on the national average.  So when you look at purely demographics, Ohio should maybe be slightly right of the nation as a whole, but not by too much.  I think Trump's strong showing in 2016 was more over trade since with a strong manufacturing sector, Ohio has always been considerably more protectionist than most of the country.  This time around less of an issue.

Iowa is more surprising as its very white and very rural so its demographics are not Democrat friendly at all.  Yes Maine and Vermont are even more rural and whiter but New England rural whites have a long history of bucking national trend on voting never mind in New England most are mainline Protestants or Catholics, few White Evangelicals unlike Iowa.

[SevenEleven]

Flipping IA and OH before TX 😂

Never change, Cook.

[Alcibiades]

Iowa is more surprising as its very white and very rural so its demographics are not Democrat friendly at all.  Yes Maine and Vermont are even more rural and whiter but New England rural whites have a long history of bucking national trend on voting never mind in New England most are mainline Protestants or Catholics, few White Evangelicals unlike Iowa.

Iowa has a certain kinship with Maine and Vermont, due to demographics and the fact that they both swung Democrat at the same time. Of course it is now nowhere near as Democratic as those two, but it is certainly winnable for a Democrat in an election like this: it is rather elastic (in large part owing to its homogeneity), and has a larger culturally liberal base than Ohio.

[MT Treasurer]

Can’t wait until "elastic" IA votes 10+ to the right of the NPV result and once again ends up being more Republican than TX, GA, NC, FL, and OH and everyone pretends that they saw it coming all along.

[Alcibiades]

Can’t wait until "elastic" IA votes 10+ to the right of the NPV result and once again ends up being more Republican than TX, GA, NC, FL, and OH and everyone pretends that they saw it coming all along.

Don’t get me wrong, I think there’s a pretty good chance Iowa votes to the right of all those states (although I think it won’t be 10+ to the right of the NPV this time). It’s just that if Biden does as well as the polls say, he may well eke out a victory in IA. Hillary was a uniquely bad fit for rural America, and 2018 shows that Iowa has by no means rejected the Democratic Party.

[JerryArkansas]

Can’t wait until "elastic" IA votes 10+ to the right of the NPV result and once again ends up being more Republican than TX, GA, NC, FL, and OH and everyone pretends that they saw it coming all along.

Be even more amazing that this happens while Biden is winning.  I do buy though that Iowa and Wisconson will be more republican than polls say though. 

But I will be happy if I happen to be proved wrong

[MT Treasurer]

Can’t wait until "elastic" IA votes 10+ to the right of the NPV result and once again ends up being more Republican than TX, GA, NC, FL, and OH and everyone pretends that they saw it coming all along.

Don’t get me wrong, I think there’s a pretty good chance Iowa votes to the right of all those states (although I think it won’t be 10+ to the right of the NPV this time). It’s just that if Biden does as well as the polls say, he may well eke out a victory in IA. Hillary was a uniquely bad fit for rural America, and 2018 shows that Iowa has by no means rejected the Democratic Party.

I don’t think it’s impossible for Biden to eke out a very narrow win in IA (although it’s highly unlikely), but I’m pretty confident that Biden will already have flipped OH/TX/GA/NC/FL and be fairly competitive in states like KS/AK/MT if it gets to that point.

[Alcibiades]

Can’t wait until "elastic" IA votes 10+ to the right of the NPV result and once again ends up being more Republican than TX, GA, NC, FL, and OH and everyone pretends that they saw it coming all along.

Don’t get me wrong, I think there’s a pretty good chance Iowa votes to the right of all those states (although I think it won’t be 10+ to the right of the NPV this time). It’s just that if Biden does as well as the polls say, he may well eke out a victory in IA. Hillary was a uniquely bad fit for rural America, and 2018 shows that Iowa has by no means rejected the Democratic Party.

I don’t think it’s impossible for Biden to eke out a very narrow win in IA (although it’s highly unlikely), but I’m pretty confident that Biden will already have flipped OH/TX/GA/NC/FL and be fairly competitive in states like KS/AK/MT if it gets to that point.

If Biden is winning by the narrowest of margins in IA, I don’t think he’ll be especially competitive in those states. Sure, he’ll have made a very good showing for a Democrat, but he’ll be behind by 5-10 points.

[SevenEleven]

Can’t wait until "elastic" IA votes 10+ to the right of the NPV result and once again ends up being more Republican than TX, GA, NC, FL, and OH and everyone pretends that they saw it coming all along.

Don’t get me wrong, I think there’s a pretty good chance Iowa votes to the right of all those states (although I think it won’t be 10+ to the right of the NPV this time). It’s just that if Biden does as well as the polls say, he may well eke out a victory in IA. Hillary was a uniquely bad fit for rural America, and 2018 shows that Iowa has by no means rejected the Democratic Party.

I don’t think it’s impossible for Biden to eke out a very narrow win in IA (although it’s highly unlikely), but I’m pretty confident that Biden will already have flipped OH/TX/GA/NC/FL and be fairly competitive in states like KS/AK/MT if it gets to that point.

If Biden is winning by the narrowest of margins in IA, I don’t think he’ll be especially competitive in those states. Sure, he’ll have made a very good showing for a Democrat, but he’ll be behind by 5-10 points.

5-7 is definitely in the "fairly competitive" category.

[Alcibiades]

Can’t wait until "elastic" IA votes 10+ to the right of the NPV result and once again ends up being more Republican than TX, GA, NC, FL, and OH and everyone pretends that they saw it coming all along.

Don’t get me wrong, I think there’s a pretty good chance Iowa votes to the right of all those states (although I think it won’t be 10+ to the right of the NPV this time). It’s just that if Biden does as well as the polls say, he may well eke out a victory in IA. Hillary was a uniquely bad fit for rural America, and 2018 shows that Iowa has by no means rejected the Democratic Party.

I don’t think it’s impossible for Biden to eke out a very narrow win in IA (although it’s highly unlikely), but I’m pretty confident that Biden will already have flipped OH/TX/GA/NC/FL and be fairly competitive in states like KS/AK/MT if it gets to that point.

If Biden is winning by the narrowest of margins in IA, I don’t think he’ll be especially competitive in those states. Sure, he’ll have made a very good showing for a Democrat, but he’ll be behind by 5-10 points.

5-7 is definitely in the "fairly competitive" category.

I suppose you could say so, depending on how you define “fairly”, but 5-7 isn’t really the feeling of, “Ooh, he could have so easily won it if he’d just been a bit luckier.”

[Figueira]

I really don't understand why anyone has a problem with this. Especially Ohio.