Cook moves Iowa and Ohio to Tossups

[Non Swing Voter]

If these really are tossups at this point then the race seems over and Biden is winning PA/MI/WI/AZ.  But maybe wishful thinking on my part.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Iowa is more surprising as its very white and very rural so its demographics are not Democrat friendly at all.  Yes Maine and Vermont are even more rural and whiter but New England rural whites have a long history of bucking national trend on voting never mind in New England most are mainline Protestants or Catholics, few White Evangelicals unlike Iowa.

Iowa has a certain kinship with Maine and Vermont, due to demographics and the fact that they both swung Democrat at the same time. Of course it is now nowhere near as Democratic as those two, but it is certainly winnable for a Democrat in an election like this: it is rather elastic (in large part owing to its homogeneity), and has a larger culturally liberal base than Ohio.

IA was settled by yankees from New England. The whole Upper Midwest was also settled the same way.

[MATTROSE94]

I expect Trump to open up small yet consistent leads in polling over Biden here in a few weeks, and the state is lean R going into election day. That being said, Biden's numbers have been very impressive given most of us didn't expect IA to be competitive in this election. Biden could win it if he made some visits and put more resources into it, but it's obviously not really worth much investment because the real race will be decided in PA+WI+MI+FL+AZ.

Iowa does have a competitive Senate race, which could go in the Democrats favor if Joe Biden puts some attention into the state.