NYTimes/Siena - Biden+9 in MN, +3 in NH, +4 in NV, +5 in WI
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  NYTimes/Siena - Biden+9 in MN, +3 in NH, +4 in NV, +5 in WI
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Author Topic: NYTimes/Siena - Biden+9 in MN, +3 in NH, +4 in NV, +5 in WI  (Read 4470 times)
n1240
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« on: September 12, 2020, 07:09:55 AM »
« edited: September 12, 2020, 07:17:45 AM by n1240 »

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/us/politics/biden-trump-poll-wisconsin-minnesota.html

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/crosstabs-MN-NH-NV-WI.pdf/80f8e4634fe6f880/full.pdf

MN

Biden 50
Trump 41

9/8-10 814 LV

NH

Biden 45
Trump 42

9/8-11 445 LV

NV

Biden 46
Trump 42

9/8-10 462 LV

WI

Biden 48
Trump 43

9/8-10 760 LV
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Hindsight was 2020
Hindsight is 2020
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« Reply #1 on: September 12, 2020, 07:11:23 AM »

Again the most telling thing is how Trump is stuck in the 41-43 range and the margins come down to how many undecideds have committed to Biden
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swf541
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« Reply #2 on: September 12, 2020, 07:12:01 AM »

Given how trump friendly the sample was horrible poll for Trump.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #3 on: September 12, 2020, 07:13:20 AM »

Wow, this is the best Nate could come up with while only calling Trump supporters and refusing to push undecideds? RIP Trump.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #4 on: September 12, 2020, 07:14:08 AM »

It's incomprehendable to me that they STILL AREN'T PUSHING PEOPLE. 12% undecided/other in NV? 13% in NH? Why?Huh

Either way, MN seems right on the nose, Wisconsin is a little lower than what we've seen (Trump +6 sample though...), for all the terrible polling history of NV, that actually looks pretty great for Biden. NH seems off, but there's 13% undecided, so
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #5 on: September 12, 2020, 07:16:07 AM »

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Niemeyerite
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« Reply #6 on: September 12, 2020, 07:16:34 AM »

+ 9 in MN and +5 in WI is great news. +4 in NV considering we have the Reid machine on our side is also not bad. Only NH is a bit concerning but as long as Trump is stuck in the low 40s... Not bad!!
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #7 on: September 12, 2020, 07:16:46 AM »

Good numbers for Wisconsin in Minnesota.

Not that great for Nevada and New Hampshire.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #8 on: September 12, 2020, 07:18:10 AM »

Quote
In Wisconsin, Mr. Biden received 48 percent support compared with 43 percent for Mr. Trump. Thatís a significant drop-off from June, when a Times/Siena poll showed Mr. Biden ahead by 11 points.

LOL maybe its because last time there was a Trump +1 sample and now it's a Trump+6 sample??
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roxas11
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« Reply #9 on: September 12, 2020, 07:18:29 AM »

Again the most telling thing is how Trump is stuck in the 41-43 range and the margins come down to how many undecideds have committed to Biden


I agree

If trump is still in the low or mid 40s on election day it is game over for him and Biden is going to be our next president
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #10 on: September 12, 2020, 07:18:45 AM »

Good numbers for Wisconsin in Minnesota.

Not that great for Nevada and New Hampshire.

you do realize that NV polling historically underestimates Dems, right? Biden +4 here is actually great given the past circumstances in this states polling
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #11 on: September 12, 2020, 07:20:49 AM »

Quote
In Wisconsin, Mr. Biden received 48 percent support compared with 43 percent for Mr. Trump. Thatís a significant drop-off from June, when a Times/Siena poll showed Mr. Biden ahead by 11 points.

LOL maybe its because last time there was a Trump +1 sample and now it's a Trump+6 sample??

Wait, it's really a Trump +6 sample? That's hilarious.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #12 on: September 12, 2020, 07:21:29 AM »

Quote
In Wisconsin, Mr. Biden received 48 percent support compared with 43 percent for Mr. Trump. Thatís a significant drop-off from June, when a Times/Siena poll showed Mr. Biden ahead by 11 points.

LOL maybe its because last time there was a Trump +1 sample and now it's a Trump+6 sample??

No. That's the self-reported sample, but NYT doesn't weight by self-reported vote



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Skye
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« Reply #13 on: September 12, 2020, 07:22:59 AM »

Biden winning voters >65 years 52-40 😬
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #14 on: September 12, 2020, 07:24:02 AM »

NYT with some serious hackery in this post. Trump is literally losing all 4 states, and yet all of the quotes and interviewer interactions are in a negative way to Biden.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #15 on: September 12, 2020, 07:24:26 AM »



Well, duh! When you get a Trump-friendly sample of course voters will be saying all those things.
It's not like you discovered America Nate.
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neostassenite31
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« Reply #16 on: September 12, 2020, 07:25:59 AM »

Their MN number favors Biden too much in the sense that they only have him at +5 in Wisconsin. 
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #17 on: September 12, 2020, 07:26:20 AM »

Quote
In Wisconsin, Mr. Biden received 48 percent support compared with 43 percent for Mr. Trump. Thatís a significant drop-off from June, when a Times/Siena poll showed Mr. Biden ahead by 11 points.

LOL maybe its because last time there was a Trump +1 sample and now it's a Trump+6 sample??

No. That's the self-reported sample, but NYT doesn't weight by self-reported vote





Right, that's what I'm saying. There is no weighting, so this is a straight Trump +6 self reported sample. Their June poll was a self-reported Trump +1 sample. So them acting surprised that Biden dropped from the previous poll is rich considering the sample is obviously more predisposed to Trump.

The only self-reported vote ID of any of these states that was accurate was the NH poll.
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #18 on: September 12, 2020, 07:26:43 AM »
« Edited: September 12, 2020, 07:34:17 AM by Monstro »

Again the most telling thing is how Trump is stuck in the 41-43 range and the margins come down to how many undecideds have committed to Biden

I know we still got a month & a half and to "avoid complacency", but I'd be very surprised if Trump's national support gets above 46%. At this point, I'm expecting a 53-46 national PV ala 2008.

And that's without taking into account my belief that Biden overperforms his numbers due to undecideds breaking strong for him
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #19 on: September 12, 2020, 07:27:00 AM »

On New Hampshire:


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wbrocks67
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« Reply #20 on: September 12, 2020, 07:28:33 AM »

Biden winning voters >65 years 52-40 😬

This is major. If Biden is winning young people by 40% and older people by 12%, that's total game over for Trump
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #21 on: September 12, 2020, 07:29:36 AM »

Yeah, the NH poll has nearly a 6% MoE, so I wouldn't take it too literallly
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DaleCooper
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« Reply #22 on: September 12, 2020, 07:30:35 AM »

Sounds like Cohn himself has some doubts about NH polling, but this is about what I expected, though I'll admit that that Wisconsin number gives me PTSD. Hopefully we're done with the tossup Minnesota meme, at least.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #23 on: September 12, 2020, 07:30:42 AM »

Again the most telling thing is how Trump is stuck in the 41-43 range and the margins come down to how many undecideds have committed to Biden

I know we still got a month & a half and to "avoid complacency", but I'd be very surprised if Trump's national support gets above 46%.

At this point, I'm expecting, at least, a 53-46 national PV ala 2008

I've maintained for a while that 2020 is most likely to be a total repeat of 2018, too. 53-45, 2% 3rd party. Especially since the GCB has been steady since 2018 with a D+7/8 win
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #24 on: September 12, 2020, 07:30:49 AM »

Their MN number favors Biden too much in the sense that they only have him at +5 in Wisconsin. 

Minnesota is substantially more urban/suburban than Wisconsin, and those urban/suburban areas are more Dem friendly (there is no equivalent to WOW, for instance).
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