NYTimes/Siena - Biden+9 in MN, +3 in NH, +4 in NV, +5 in WI

[n1240]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/09/12/us/politics/biden-trump-poll-wisconsin-minnesota.html

https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/crosstabs-MN-NH-NV-WI.pdf/80f8e4634fe6f880/full.pdf

MN

Biden 50
Trump 41

9/8-10 814 LV

NH

Biden 45
Trump 42

9/8-11 445 LV

NV

Biden 46
Trump 42

9/8-10 462 LV

WI

Biden 48
Trump 43

9/8-10 760 LV

[Hindsight was 2020]

Again the most telling thing is how Trump is stuck in the 41-43 range and the margins come down to how many undecideds have committed to Biden

[swf541]

Given how trump friendly the sample was horrible poll for Trump.

[Lief 🗽]

Wow, this is the best Nate could come up with while only calling Trump supporters and refusing to push undecideds? RIP Trump.

[wbrocks67]

It's incomprehendable to me that they STILL AREN'T PUSHING PEOPLE. 12% undecided/other in NV? 13% in NH? Why?

Either way, MN seems right on the nose, Wisconsin is a little lower than what we've seen (Trump +6 sample though...), for all the terrible polling history of NV, that actually looks pretty great for Biden. NH seems off, but there's 13% undecided, so

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1304755359777783808

[Niemeyerite]

+ 9 in MN and +5 in WI is great news. +4 in NV considering we have the Reid machine on our side is also not bad. Only NH is a bit concerning but as long as Trump is stuck in the low 40s... Not bad!!

[Ferguson97]

Good numbers for Wisconsin in Minnesota.

Not that great for Nevada and New Hampshire.

[wbrocks67]

In Wisconsin, Mr. Biden received 48 percent support compared with 43 percent for Mr. Trump. That’s a significant drop-off from June, when a Times/Siena poll showed Mr. Biden ahead by 11 points.

LOL maybe its because last time there was a Trump +1 sample and now it's a Trump+6 sample??

[roxas11]

Again the most telling thing is how Trump is stuck in the 41-43 range and the margins come down to how many undecideds have committed to Biden

I agree

If trump is still in the low or mid 40s on election day it is game over for him and Biden is going to be our next president

[wbrocks67]

Good numbers for Wisconsin in Minnesota.

Not that great for Nevada and New Hampshire.

you do realize that NV polling historically underestimates Dems, right? Biden +4 here is actually great given the past circumstances in this states polling

[SnowLabrador]

In Wisconsin, Mr. Biden received 48 percent support compared with 43 percent for Mr. Trump. That’s a significant drop-off from June, when a Times/Siena poll showed Mr. Biden ahead by 11 points.

LOL maybe its because last time there was a Trump +1 sample and now it's a Trump+6 sample??

Wait, it's really a Trump +6 sample? That's hilarious.

[JRP1994]

In Wisconsin, Mr. Biden received 48 percent support compared with 43 percent for Mr. Trump. That’s a significant drop-off from June, when a Times/Siena poll showed Mr. Biden ahead by 11 points.

LOL maybe its because last time there was a Trump +1 sample and now it's a Trump+6 sample??

No. That's the self-reported sample, but NYT doesn't weight by self-reported vote

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1304740486062759937

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1304746758082265088

[Skye]

Biden winning voters >65 years 52-40 😬

[wbrocks67]

NYT with some serious hackery in this post. Trump is literally losing all 4 states, and yet all of the quotes and interviewer interactions are in a negative way to Biden.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1304755359777783808

Well, duh! When you get a Trump-friendly sample of course voters will be saying all those things.
It's not like you discovered America Nate.

[neostassenite31]

Their MN number favors Biden too much in the sense that they only have him at +5 in Wisconsin. 

[wbrocks67]

In Wisconsin, Mr. Biden received 48 percent support compared with 43 percent for Mr. Trump. That’s a significant drop-off from June, when a Times/Siena poll showed Mr. Biden ahead by 11 points.

LOL maybe its because last time there was a Trump +1 sample and now it's a Trump+6 sample??

No. That's the self-reported sample, but NYT doesn't weight by self-reported vote

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1304740486062759937

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1304746758082265088

Right, that's what I'm saying. There is no weighting, so this is a straight Trump +6 self reported sample. Their June poll was a self-reported Trump +1 sample. So them acting surprised that Biden dropped from the previous poll is rich considering the sample is obviously more predisposed to Trump.

The only self-reported vote ID of any of these states that was accurate was the NH poll.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Again the most telling thing is how Trump is stuck in the 41-43 range and the margins come down to how many undecideds have committed to Biden

I know we still got a month & a half and to "avoid complacency", but I'd be very surprised if Trump's national support gets above 46%. At this point, I'm expecting a 53-46 national PV ala 2008.

And that's without taking into account my belief that Biden overperforms his numbers due to undecideds breaking strong for him

[GeorgiaModerate]

On New Hampshire:

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1304756113548537860
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1304756916313354242

[wbrocks67]

Biden winning voters >65 years 52-40 😬

This is major. If Biden is winning young people by 40% and older people by 12%, that's total game over for Trump

[wbrocks67]

Yeah, the NH poll has nearly a 6% MoE, so I wouldn't take it too literallly

[DaleCooper]

Sounds like Cohn himself has some doubts about NH polling, but this is about what I expected, though I'll admit that that Wisconsin number gives me PTSD. Hopefully we're done with the tossup Minnesota meme, at least.

[wbrocks67]

Again the most telling thing is how Trump is stuck in the 41-43 range and the margins come down to how many undecideds have committed to Biden

I know we still got a month & a half and to "avoid complacency", but I'd be very surprised if Trump's national support gets above 46%.

At this point, I'm expecting, at least, a 53-46 national PV ala 2008

I've maintained for a while that 2020 is most likely to be a total repeat of 2018, too. 53-45, 2% 3rd party. Especially since the GCB has been steady since 2018 with a D+7/8 win

[ON Progressive]

Their MN number favors Biden too much in the sense that they only have him at +5 in Wisconsin. 

Minnesota is substantially more urban/suburban than Wisconsin, and those urban/suburban areas are more Dem friendly (there is no equivalent to WOW, for instance).