NYTimes/Siena - Biden+9 in MN, +3 in NH, +4 in NV, +5 in WI

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

There are many reasons to be skeptical about pollsters' use of education weights. I don't think there's any reason to suspect that someone lies and says they have a college degree in an exit poll but then says they are a high school graduate in a typical poll, which is the basis hypothesis of education weights. I suspect that voters lie to pollsters about their educational attainment but are truthful when confronted with the Current Population Survey.

[Kuumo]

Biden at 50% and +9 in Minnesota. Maybe Atlas will finally realize there won’t be hordes of Hillary-Smith-Walz Democrats for Trump in 2020.

The only part of this poll that is concerning is New Hampshire, since Nevada polls almost always underestimate Democrats.

[GeneralMacArthur]

The only map where NH flips the race is the one where Biden loses PA and wins AZ.  That map is 269-267 with ME-02 and NE-02 remaining if Biden wins NH; if he loses NH, it's 265-271 and Trump wins no matter what.

It also matters for the 2016 blue wall map if Biden loses both NH and NV.  Then it's 268-268 with ME-02 and NE-02 remaining.

[Alben Barkley]

Biden doesn’t actually need NH to win anyway, but given the sample weirdness, MOE, Trump's low numbers, and high undecideds (who are leaning towards Biden mostly), and he’s still up there? Not worried about it. Probably just an outlier, even Cohn seems to think so.

NV polls always seem to underestimate Democrats. Probably in part due to the difficulty of polling Hispanics.

[Pollster]

He publishes a series of polls pointing to a decisive Trump defeat and Nate Cohn's analysis is "Trump's pivot to law and order is working."

[Alben Barkley]

He publishes a series of polls pointing to a decisive Trump defeat and Nate Cohn's analysis is "Trump's pivot to law and order is working."

Especially dumb because he’s pushing that hardest in states like MN, where it doesn’t seem to be working at all.

[ON Progressive]

He publishes a series of polls pointing to a decisive Trump defeat and Nate Cohn's analysis is "Trump's pivot to law and order is working."

Gotta have the Horse Race (TM).

[kph14]

I have mapped the "Milwaukee suburbs" in DRA: https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::5a3e3a1f-cda3-4aea-b49a-833fbd91fb41

These are the results there in recent years:

2018
Vukmir 55-45
Walker 60-39
2016
Trump 54-39
Johnson 62-36

[kph14]

I have mapped the "Milwaukee suburbs" in DRA: https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::5a3e3a1f-cda3-4aea-b49a-833fbd91fb41

These are the results there in recent years:

2018
Vukmir 55-45
Walker 60-39
2016
Trump 54-39
Johnson 62-36

Biden at 43% there is definitely a good sign for him

[kireev]

I think we can all agree: the electorate will not be better than this sample for Trump. And Trump is still losing: not by much and he is even tied in NH, but it's still a bad sign for him.

[Gracile]

Important to note that Biden also has a positive favorability rating in all four states (compared to Trump who is perceived negatively in all four) - this is markedly different than in 2016 when both major party candidates were perceived in an unfavorable light.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

WI going R, and being a 269 tie isn't gonna happen, WI, MI and PA are gonna flip D

[wbrocks67]

Also note too that the NYT/Siena poll in NV in 2018 had Heller actually winning by 2. So the fact this has Biden winning by 4 given the polling history of that state...

[Horus]

Sub par results for Biden in three of those states, MN looks good.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

The Wisconsin poll has Biden leading in the Milwaukee suburbs.

[LiberalDem19]

Did they really use a 45% metro/Trump +3 sample in MN?

(Exurbs and St. Cloud aren’t metro)

[Ferguson97]

There are many reasons to be skeptical about pollsters' use of education weights. I don't think there's any reason to suspect that someone lies and says they have a college degree in an exit poll but then says they are a high school graduate in a typical poll, which is the basis hypothesis of education weights. I suspect that voters lie to pollsters about their educational attainment but are truthful when confronted with the Current Population Survey.

That’s not how weighting works.

It’s used to correct sample size. If you take a survey and half the respondents didn’t go to college, but the state has 75% no college education, you just double the weight of the non college respondents.

It’s about ensuring an accurate sample size. And it’s not because of people lying it’s because non-college voters are less likely to respond to a survey.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Wisconsin poll has Biden leading in the Milwaukee suburbs.

They had the columns for Milwaukee city and suburbs flipped.  But even with the correct data, Biden is only down 48-43 in the suburbs, which is a great showing.

[republican1993]

I love how people post the "race is over" if it is why r yall the first people running in here to say that?

GO TRUMP!

[GeorgiaModerate]

I love how people post the "race is over" if it is why r yall the first people running in here to say that?

GO TRUMP!

I just reviewed the whole thread.  Nobody proclaimed that the race is over.  The closest anyone came was a couple of posts that said *if* a current trend continued, the race would be over:

If trump is still in the low or mid 40s on election day it is game over for him and Biden is going to be our next president

If Biden is winning young people by 40% and older people by 12%, that's total game over for Trump

There are several good reading comprehension courses online.  They may help you.

[DaleCooper]

There are several good reading comprehension courses online.  They may help you.

But if he wasn't poorly educated then Trump wouldn't love him anymore.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

The NV numbers don't really concern me. The state is notoriously hard to poll and Democrats seem to always overperform their polling. I'm still waiting to hear from Jon Ralston, although I imagine he won't have much to say until early voting really ramps up.

Keep Calm and Trust Ralston

The non-white numbers look low for Biden in NV

[DaleCooper]

I'm not worried about Nevada. Biden is actually doing much better than Hillary's polling, if I'm remembering correctly she was barely favored to win. Biden being +5 on average in the state is very very good.

[politicallefty]

The NV numbers don't really concern me. The state is notoriously hard to poll and Democrats seem to always overperform their polling. I'm still waiting to hear from Jon Ralston, although I imagine he won't have much to say until early voting really ramps up.

Keep Calm and Trust Ralston

The non-white numbers look low for Biden in NV

As I said, too early, but:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1304792024579674114

He has spoken.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Honestly this doesn't look too bad to me.

That New Hampshire number is intriguing though. Most polls have indicated that Biden is ahead by the mid to high single digits, but not so much here. Either this is an outlier or New Hampshire still is Trump's best chance at flipping a Clinton state (though it probably still won't happen even if he wins again) though I still expect Biden to keep it in the Democratic column in the end. Or it could be another Minnesota situation where we get an occasional too-close-for- comfort poll but in reality most other polls are telling a more favorable story for Biden.

That Nevada result isn't a concern to me either. After 2018 I've learned that Democrats have a very solid floor in this state too that never really comes through in polling. It may still be a single digit win, but this state really does seem gone for Republicans.