Morning Consult tracker updated: Biden +9%

[TheLaRocca]

These are huge sample sizes. How accurate were they in 2016?

they had +3 Clinton as final

the 52-43 is accurate. but the undecideds will break hard Trump (bet on it).

Debatable.  Undecideds may be more likely to break against an unpopular incumbent.

They're not actually undecideds though (don't believe any cross-tab racial demographics of them...).

Biden should focus on turning out voters/GOTV. The remaining undecideds are shy Trump voters. Bank on it.

2:1 split seems more likely. There hasn't been, nor will there ever be, where 90-100% of the undecideds go one way.

Yeah, everywhere else but the midwest they go 50-50 pretty much.

Midwest they are not undecideds. They are shy Trump voters.

Do you have any evidence?

2014, 2016, and even 2018.

Every single election lol.

2016 wasn't "shy Trump voters", it was undecideds breaking heavily for Trump after the Comey Letter. And Trump was not on the ballot in 2014 and 2018.

They were independents/democrats who had been leaning towards Republicans for a while but never pulled the lever. They were looking (and still are) for an excuse to pull the lever for Trump.

Biden is over 50 in those states tho so it doesn't matter. But the shy GOP vote isn't really "I'm gonna lie and say I'm voting for Biden but I'm for Trump" it's more saying "I don't know who I'm voting for".

They're not really prominent anywhere else but the upper and lower midwest.

[Tekken_Guy]

These are huge sample sizes. How accurate were they in 2016?

they had +3 Clinton as final

the 52-43 is accurate. but the undecideds will break hard Trump (bet on it).

Debatable.  Undecideds may be more likely to break against an unpopular incumbent.

They're not actually undecideds though (don't believe any cross-tab racial demographics of them...).

Biden should focus on turning out voters/GOTV. The remaining undecideds are shy Trump voters. Bank on it.

2:1 split seems more likely. There hasn't been, nor will there ever be, where 90-100% of the undecideds go one way.

Yeah, everywhere else but the midwest they go 50-50 pretty much.

Midwest they are not undecideds. They are shy Trump voters.

Do you have any evidence?

2014, 2016, and even 2018.

Every single election lol.

2016 wasn't "shy Trump voters", it was undecideds breaking heavily for Trump after the Comey Letter. And Trump was not on the ballot in 2014 and 2018.

They were independents/democrats who had been leaning towards Republicans for a while but never pulled the lever. They were looking (and still are) for an excuse to pull the lever for Trump.

Biden is over 50 in those states tho so it doesn't matter. But the shy GOP vote isn't really "I'm gonna lie and say I'm voting for Biden but I'm for Trump" it's more saying "I don't know who I'm voting for".

They're not really prominent anywhere else but the upper and lower midwest.

What does that even mean. "Looking for an excuse to vote for Trump"? That means they want to vote for Trump; why wouldn't they do it?

[TheLaRocca]

These are huge sample sizes. How accurate were they in 2016?

they had +3 Clinton as final

the 52-43 is accurate. but the undecideds will break hard Trump (bet on it).

Debatable.  Undecideds may be more likely to break against an unpopular incumbent.

They're not actually undecideds though (don't believe any cross-tab racial demographics of them...).

Biden should focus on turning out voters/GOTV. The remaining undecideds are shy Trump voters. Bank on it.

2:1 split seems more likely. There hasn't been, nor will there ever be, where 90-100% of the undecideds go one way.

Yeah, everywhere else but the midwest they go 50-50 pretty much.

Midwest they are not undecideds. They are shy Trump voters.

Do you have any evidence?

2014, 2016, and even 2018.

Every single election lol.

2016 wasn't "shy Trump voters", it was undecideds breaking heavily for Trump after the Comey Letter. And Trump was not on the ballot in 2014 and 2018.

They were independents/democrats who had been leaning towards Republicans for a while but never pulled the lever. They were looking (and still are) for an excuse to pull the lever for Trump.

Biden is over 50 in those states tho so it doesn't matter. But the shy GOP vote isn't really "I'm gonna lie and say I'm voting for Biden but I'm for Trump" it's more saying "I don't know who I'm voting for".

They're not really prominent anywhere else but the upper and lower midwest.

What does that even mean. "Looking for an excuse to vote for Trump"? That means they want to vote for Trump; why wouldn't they do it?

They have Identified with Democrats their whole lives. But they've been moving right since 2010. A lot of these people want to believe there "swing voters" but nowadays there really just normie conservatives. Watch any Ohio focus group in a debate.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/andrewsolender/status/1320158899216023552?s=21

[TheLaRocca]

https://twitter.com/andrewsolender/status/1320158899216023552?s=21

Subtracting from Bidens national lead the advantage Democrats have over Republicans and vice versa (MC has +9 Biden nationally)

National Security: +6 GOP
Economy: +5 GOP
Jobs: +2 GOP
Immigration: +1-2 Dem
Foreign Policy: +1-2 Dem
Public safety/law & order: +6 Dem
Health care: +12 Dem
COVID: +12 Dem
Climate Change: +21 Dem

[wbrocks67]

Oct 23-25

Biden 52 (=)
Trump 43 (=)

https://morningconsult.com/form/2020-u-s-election-tracker/

[kireev]

Oct 23-25

Biden 52 (=)
Trump 43 (=)

https://morningconsult.com/form/2020-u-s-election-tracker/

Entirely post-debate. Zero movement.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Someone else 2% (n/c)
Don't know/no opinion 3% (n/c)

[wbrocks67]

Steady as she goes

Oct 26-28

Biden 52 (=)
Trump 43 (=)

https://morningconsult.com/form/2020-u-s-election-tracker/

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Someone else 2% (n/c)
Don't know/no opinion 3% (n/c)

[VAR]

Oct 29-31

Biden 52% (n/c)
Trump 44% (+1)

https://morningconsult.com/form/2020-u-s-election-tracker/#section-5

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Someone else 2% (n/c)
Don't know/no opinion 3% (n/c)