Morning Consult tracker updated: Biden +9%

[Gass3268]

Morning Consult still at 52-43 Biden.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah we are past a blue wave here it's a Biden onslaught, 55 or more seats in Senate are possible

[MillennialModerate]

Yeah we are past a blue wave here it's a Biden onslaught, 55 or more seats in Senate are possible

Okay stop lol

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

October 16-18
14994 likely voters
MoE: 1%
Changes with October 12-14

Biden 52% (n/c)
Trump 43% (n/c)
Someone else 2% (n/c)
Don't know/no opinion 3% (-1)

[Podgy the Bear]

Another good day of polls for Biden, Trafalgar notwithstanding.

[wbrocks67]

10/18-10/20

Biden 52 (=)
Trump 43 (=)

Biden fav: 52/45 (+7)
Trump fav: 43/56 (-13)

https://morningconsult.com/form/2020-u-s-election-tracker/

[TheLaRocca]

State polling is consistent with a 9% Biden lead.

[wbrocks67]

Also, Morning Consult nailed the final margin in 2016. Their final poll had hillary +3

[TheLaRocca]

These are huge sample sizes. How accurate were they in 2016?

they had +3 Clinton as final

the 52-43 is accurate. but the undecideds will break hard Trump (bet on it).

[GeorgiaModerate]

These are huge sample sizes. How accurate were they in 2016?

they had +3 Clinton as final

the 52-43 is accurate. but the undecideds will break hard Trump (bet on it).

Debatable.  Undecideds may be more likely to break against an unpopular incumbent.

[TheLaRocca]

These are huge sample sizes. How accurate were they in 2016?

they had +3 Clinton as final

the 52-43 is accurate. but the undecideds will break hard Trump (bet on it).

Debatable.  Undecideds may be more likely to break against an unpopular incumbent.

They're not actually undecideds though (don't believe any cross-tab racial demographics of them...).

Biden should focus on turning out voters/GOTV. The remaining undecideds are shy Trump voters. Bank on it.

[Tekken_Guy]

These are huge sample sizes. How accurate were they in 2016?

they had +3 Clinton as final

the 52-43 is accurate. but the undecideds will break hard Trump (bet on it).

Debatable.  Undecideds may be more likely to break against an unpopular incumbent.

They're not actually undecideds though (don't believe any cross-tab racial demographics of them...).

Biden should focus on turning out voters/GOTV. The remaining undecideds are shy Trump voters. Bank on it.

Then explain why his approval rating isn't higher than his vote share.

[GeorgiaModerate]

These are huge sample sizes. How accurate were they in 2016?

they had +3 Clinton as final

the 52-43 is accurate. but the undecideds will break hard Trump (bet on it).

Debatable.  Undecideds may be more likely to break against an unpopular incumbent.

They're not actually undecideds though (don't believe any cross-tab racial demographics of them...).

Biden should focus on turning out voters/GOTV. The remaining undecideds are shy Trump voters. Bank on it.

If you don't trust the pollster enough to believe the demographic breakdown, why do you trust it enough to believe the 52-43 margin?  This seems like cherry picking your data.

[CookieDamage]

Yeah we are past a blue wave here it's a Biden onslaught, 55 or more seats in Senate are possible

Okay stop lol

you should not be talking

[TheLaRocca]

These are huge sample sizes. How accurate were they in 2016?

they had +3 Clinton as final

the 52-43 is accurate. but the undecideds will break hard Trump (bet on it).

Debatable.  Undecideds may be more likely to break against an unpopular incumbent.

They're not actually undecideds though (don't believe any cross-tab racial demographics of them...).

Biden should focus on turning out voters/GOTV. The remaining undecideds are shy Trump voters. Bank on it.

Then explain why his approval rating isn't higher than his vote share.

who the hell is an undecided voter at this point?

[Ferguson97]

These are huge sample sizes. How accurate were they in 2016?

they had +3 Clinton as final

the 52-43 is accurate. but the undecideds will break hard Trump (bet on it).

Debatable.  Undecideds may be more likely to break against an unpopular incumbent.

They're not actually undecideds though (don't believe any cross-tab racial demographics of them...).

Biden should focus on turning out voters/GOTV. The remaining undecideds are shy Trump voters. Bank on it.

Then explain why his approval rating isn't higher than his vote share.

who the hell is an undecided voter at this point?

It’s not really anyone undecided between Trump and Biden. It’s people undecided between one of them and staying home.

[TheLaRocca]

These are huge sample sizes. How accurate were they in 2016?

they had +3 Clinton as final

the 52-43 is accurate. but the undecideds will break hard Trump (bet on it).

Debatable.  Undecideds may be more likely to break against an unpopular incumbent.

They're not actually undecideds though (don't believe any cross-tab racial demographics of them...).

Biden should focus on turning out voters/GOTV. The remaining undecideds are shy Trump voters. Bank on it.

Then explain why his approval rating isn't higher than his vote share.

who the hell is an undecided voter at this point?

It’s not really anyone undecided between Trump and Biden. It’s people undecided between one of them and staying home.

staying home is more likely.

every poll has like 3% undecideds.

[Hammy]

These are huge sample sizes. How accurate were they in 2016?

they had +3 Clinton as final

the 52-43 is accurate. but the undecideds will break hard Trump (bet on it).

Debatable.  Undecideds may be more likely to break against an unpopular incumbent.

They're not actually undecideds though (don't believe any cross-tab racial demographics of them...).

Biden should focus on turning out voters/GOTV. The remaining undecideds are shy Trump voters. Bank on it.

2:1 split seems more likely. There hasn't been, nor will there ever be, where 90-100% of the undecideds go one way.

[TheLaRocca]

These are huge sample sizes. How accurate were they in 2016?

they had +3 Clinton as final

the 52-43 is accurate. but the undecideds will break hard Trump (bet on it).

Debatable.  Undecideds may be more likely to break against an unpopular incumbent.

They're not actually undecideds though (don't believe any cross-tab racial demographics of them...).

Biden should focus on turning out voters/GOTV. The remaining undecideds are shy Trump voters. Bank on it.

2:1 split seems more likely. There hasn't been, nor will there ever be, where 90-100% of the undecideds go one way.

Yeah, everywhere else but the midwest they go 50-50 pretty much.

Midwest they are not undecideds. They are shy Trump voters.

[Tekken_Guy]

These are huge sample sizes. How accurate were they in 2016?

they had +3 Clinton as final

the 52-43 is accurate. but the undecideds will break hard Trump (bet on it).

Debatable.  Undecideds may be more likely to break against an unpopular incumbent.

They're not actually undecideds though (don't believe any cross-tab racial demographics of them...).

Biden should focus on turning out voters/GOTV. The remaining undecideds are shy Trump voters. Bank on it.

2:1 split seems more likely. There hasn't been, nor will there ever be, where 90-100% of the undecideds go one way.

Yeah, everywhere else but the midwest they go 50-50 pretty much.

Midwest they are not undecideds. They are shy Trump voters.

Do you have any evidence?

[TheLaRocca]

These are huge sample sizes. How accurate were they in 2016?

they had +3 Clinton as final

the 52-43 is accurate. but the undecideds will break hard Trump (bet on it).

Debatable.  Undecideds may be more likely to break against an unpopular incumbent.

They're not actually undecideds though (don't believe any cross-tab racial demographics of them...).

Biden should focus on turning out voters/GOTV. The remaining undecideds are shy Trump voters. Bank on it.

2:1 split seems more likely. There hasn't been, nor will there ever be, where 90-100% of the undecideds go one way.

Yeah, everywhere else but the midwest they go 50-50 pretty much.

Midwest they are not undecideds. They are shy Trump voters.

Do you have any evidence?

2014, 2016, and even 2018.

Every single election lol.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

These are huge sample sizes. How accurate were they in 2016?

they had +3 Clinton as final

the 52-43 is accurate. but the undecideds will break hard Trump (bet on it).

Debatable.  Undecideds may be more likely to break against an unpopular incumbent.

They're not actually undecideds though (don't believe any cross-tab racial demographics of them...).

Biden should focus on turning out voters/GOTV. The remaining undecideds are shy Trump voters. Bank on it.

2:1 split seems more likely. There hasn't been, nor will there ever be, where 90-100% of the undecideds go one way.

Yeah, everywhere else but the midwest they go 50-50 pretty much.

Midwest they are not undecideds. They are shy Trump voters.

Do you have any evidence?

2014, 2016, and even 2018.

Every single election lol.

Shy Trump voters in 2014?

[Hammy]

These are huge sample sizes. How accurate were they in 2016?

they had +3 Clinton as final

the 52-43 is accurate. but the undecideds will break hard Trump (bet on it).

Debatable.  Undecideds may be more likely to break against an unpopular incumbent.

They're not actually undecideds though (don't believe any cross-tab racial demographics of them...).

Biden should focus on turning out voters/GOTV. The remaining undecideds are shy Trump voters. Bank on it.

2:1 split seems more likely. There hasn't been, nor will there ever be, where 90-100% of the undecideds go one way.

Yeah, everywhere else but the midwest they go 50-50 pretty much.

Midwest they are not undecideds. They are shy Trump voters.

Do you have any evidence?

2014, 2016, and even 2018.

Every single election lol.

No, 2014 was "36% voter turnout"

[Tekken_Guy]

These are huge sample sizes. How accurate were they in 2016?

they had +3 Clinton as final

the 52-43 is accurate. but the undecideds will break hard Trump (bet on it).

Debatable.  Undecideds may be more likely to break against an unpopular incumbent.

They're not actually undecideds though (don't believe any cross-tab racial demographics of them...).

Biden should focus on turning out voters/GOTV. The remaining undecideds are shy Trump voters. Bank on it.

2:1 split seems more likely. There hasn't been, nor will there ever be, where 90-100% of the undecideds go one way.

Yeah, everywhere else but the midwest they go 50-50 pretty much.

Midwest they are not undecideds. They are shy Trump voters.

Do you have any evidence?

2014, 2016, and even 2018.

Every single election lol.

2016 wasn't "shy Trump voters", it was undecideds breaking heavily for Trump after the Comey Letter. And Trump was not on the ballot in 2014 and 2018.

[TheLaRocca]

These are huge sample sizes. How accurate were they in 2016?

they had +3 Clinton as final

the 52-43 is accurate. but the undecideds will break hard Trump (bet on it).

Debatable.  Undecideds may be more likely to break against an unpopular incumbent.

They're not actually undecideds though (don't believe any cross-tab racial demographics of them...).

Biden should focus on turning out voters/GOTV. The remaining undecideds are shy Trump voters. Bank on it.

2:1 split seems more likely. There hasn't been, nor will there ever be, where 90-100% of the undecideds go one way.

Yeah, everywhere else but the midwest they go 50-50 pretty much.

Midwest they are not undecideds. They are shy Trump voters.

Do you have any evidence?

2014, 2016, and even 2018.

Every single election lol.

Shy Trump voters in 2014?

Shy republican vote in the midwest.

It occurs every year because pollsters (it takes them a while) to get the demographic shifts of a region correct. That's why in 2020 polling showed Clinton doing fine in the midwest (weaker in Iowa and Ohio tho but that's it).

The same reason in 2012 VA polling had Romney ahead.

Biden will win PA/WI/MI due to the national environment...but they will be close.

I called Pennsylvania in 2016 accurately.