Morning Consult tracker updated: Biden +9%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://morningconsult.com/2020-presidential-election-tracker/

Individual results have been posted from here before, but I hope this thread can keep going as the tracker is updated on a regular but not daily basis. The MoE for each 3 day rolling average is 1% and ~12,000 likely voters are sampled in that period. 12,965 voters were sampled for the most recent update (September 4-6) posted in the tracker, but 12,000 were polled for the 5-7 update which has been partially released by them but not put into the tracker yet.

September 5-7 (changes with August 27-29 poll):

Biden 50% (-1)
Trump 44% (+1)

Edit: this post will otherwise remain as is, but the thread's title will change based on the margin in the latest update to have its results posted here.

[bilaps]

Their national and swing state numbers just don't add up

[Person Man]

Well +7 now

[wbrocks67]

Judging by the three day rolling averages that were just put on 538, it appears that 9/5 was a bad day for Biden and they've had a wonky sample since then.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump seems to be consistently reaching 44% in polls lately. That my very well be his ceiling though, and honestly is probably also his floor for the popular vote when the actual election happens.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Fresh updates with 6 polls (rolling averages). Latest results (I'll keep editing the margin into the thread's title):

September 11-13
12,965 likely voters
Changes with September 5-7 poll

Biden 51% (+1)
Trump 43% (-1)
Someone else 2% (n/c)
Don't know/no opinion 4% (n/c)

[wbrocks67]

anddddd we're back to where it's been for months now.

there continue to be small ebbs and flows but it always comes back to the same.

[Person Man]

anddddd we're back to where it's been for months now.

there continue to be small ebbs and flows but it always comes back to the same.

Much like Trump's ass in general. Sometimes he's at 38, and sometimes at 45, but mainly around 41-42.

[wbrocks67]

anddddd we're back to where it's been for months now.

there continue to be small ebbs and flows but it always comes back to the same.

Much like Trump's ass in general. Sometimes he's at 38, and sometimes at 45, but mainly around 41-42.

Yep, same with the USC poll. No matter if its Biden +8 or Biden +15, Trump is always at 39-42.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Bump: new rolling averages are in.

The latest (compared to the September 11-13 figures, the latest previously released):

September 18-20
12,965 likely voters
MoE: 1%

Biden 51% (n/c)
Trump 44% (+1)
Someone else 4% (n/c)
Don't know/no opinion 2% (n/c)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is gonna win by 3.5 pts

[BobbieMac]

Biden is gonna win by 3.5 pts

Biden is more likely to win by double figures than by 3.5

[wbrocks67]

No changes here.

Biden 51
Trump 44
Someone else 2
Undecided 4

Biden fav: 50/46 (+4)
Trump fav: 44/54 (-10)

https://morningconsult.com/2020/09/29/biden-carries-post-dnc-image-boost-into-the-first-presidential-debate/

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

September 25-27
1991 registered voters
MoE: 2%
Changes with September 18-20 MC Registered Voters poll

Biden 51% (n/c)
Trump 44% (n/c)
Someone else 2% (-2)
Do not know 4% (+2)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Data has been released up to September 25-27
Changes with September 18-20 poll
12,965 likely voters
MoE: 1%

Biden 51% (n/c)
Trump 44% (n/c)
Someone else 2% (n/c)
Don't know/no opinion 4% (n/c)

The tracker previously suggested someone else was consistently higher than "don't know/no opinion" as opposed to the opposite case, but this appears to have been a mistake that's now been corrected for previous surveys.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Update: I parsed the article incorrectly. These figures are not from the RV survey; they're from the LV tracker, which has just received its updates (I've bumped the relevant thread).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The latest MC poll is part of this tracker (now updated on this link) so I'm bumping this thread

https://morningconsult.com/form/2020-u-s-election-tracker/

Latest figures:
October 2-4
15,478 likely voters
MoE: 1%
Changes with September 25-27 poll

Biden 52% (+1)
Trump 43% (-1)
Someone else 2% (n/c)
Don't know/no opinion 4% (n/c)

[redjohn]

Wow, what a major rebound from Trump getting coronavirus. His new perspective is really turning the campaign around.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

I'm ready to call this election in the sense that I don't think there's any way Trump wins fair and square at this point. He's 8 points underwater in the head-to-head polling average, he's 8 points underwater in his approval rating, he's on track to lose by 8 points. I'm still not confident that Republican state legislators and state SoSes won't invoke the gamma ray burst option after Election Day, though.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

October 5-7
12000 likely voters
MoE: 1%
Changes with October 2-4

Biden 52% (n/c)
Trump 43% (n/c)
Someone else 2% (n/c)
Don't know/no opinion 4% (n/c)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Bumping this thread with the updates to the national tracker

16045 likely voters
MoE: 1%
Changes with October 5-7

Biden 51% (-1)
Trump 43% (n/c)
Someone else 2% (n/c)
Don't know/no opinion 4% (n/c)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Crosstabs are now in a downloadable release for these state polls and the Senate polls

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

October 12-14
15499 likely voters
MoE: 1%
Changes with October 9-11

Biden 52% (+1)
Trump 43% (n/c)
Someone else 2% (n/c)
Don't know/no opinion 4% (n/c)

[forsythvoter]

These are huge sample sizes. How accurate were they in 2016?

[wbrocks67]

These are huge sample sizes. How accurate were they in 2016?

They actually nearly nailed the margin in 2016, they had Clinton +3, 45-42