2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Horus]

https://twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1304519053076246534

Good to see. Hopefully it still works in Georgia and Florida where there are no Dems in the chain of command to step in if something gets screwy.

[Horus]

Some legit good data for Democrats here:

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1306427548616863744?s=20

Gwinnett could be 60-40 Biden with those numbers.

[Horus]

This is why you don't vote by mail if you're in a swing state. Way too much on the line, far too many points of contention and state officials just itching to reject ballots. Just do it in person, especially if you're young.

[Horus]

https://twitter.com/taniel/status/1312971195537649664?s=21

I called this out when it came to the KY DEM PRIM...

DEM ballots getting overwhelmingly tossed in the waste basket with shifts towards Vote-By-Mail.

Do we have concrete reasons to assume this is the product of deliberate manipulation? Isn't election administration in NC under Democratic control?

The alternative is that poorer, more Dem-friendly areas are also more likely to have systematic barriers to voting that increase the likelihood of rejection. Which is awful too, of course, but not as existentially terrifying.

According to Guilford County the ballots are sitting somewhere in limbo waiting on "further instructions" since rules regarding VBM have changed there quite recently. I still don't like it but they weren't just thrown away.

[Horus]

Just voted here in DeKalb county - straight ticket Dem, Warnock for the special. Took a little over an hour, both of the people in front of me and the guy behind me were first time voters.

[Horus]

Tomorrow’s gonna be a huge early voting day with TX, GA, NC, NV, TN, and probably a few I’m forgetting having their first early voting weekend.

Won't be big in Georgia: some counties (i.e Democratic and urban) may have weekend voting, but GA only mandates one weekend day of in-person early voting (that'll be next Saturday, the 24th).

That’s lame, but that’s the same weekend as Florida’s first weekend of early voting, so the 24th should be a big day.

It's possible we still get half the votes we've seen per day tomorrow; I'm not abreast of every county that's offering weekend voting during the first week but if it's happening in the 12 main urban counties, then all of those in-person and mail ballots received could be close to that.

I know Fulton, Cobb and Muscogee are doing in-person voting tomorrow, and Chatham is doing early voting on both Saturday and Sunday (Gwinnett and Bibb are not doing any extra weekend voting).

DeKalb is doing in-person voting every Saturday and Sunday, though hours are shortened.

[Horus]

Pure speculation here, but I wonder if we're seeing a sort of psychological phenomenon in Texas and Georgia where suddenly low-propensity voters who thought their vote wouldn't matter in either state are going to turn out in huge numbers because things look much closer this election. I'm not sure how you'd go about proving that, admittedly.

I can't speak much to TX other than its population is booming, but GA's automatic voter registration system began in January 2017 and has now had nearly 4 years to propagate.

It's technically quasi-AVR since it is done via the DMV: poorer people (who are of course low-propensity) are more likely to renew their licenses every 5 years as opposed to 8 due to cost. That of course means the vast majority of these individuals are now registered to vote when they might have not been otherwise. Georgia active registered voters are now 95% of VEP (including inactive RVs, 102%). Even in 2018, the effect of AVR would have only been half as strong as it is now.

How did they manage to trick the GOP-controlled state government into implementing AVR??

They're going to rig the election here so might as well implement AVR and look good to the public eye. Kemp would never have allowed that otherwise.

[Horus]

if republicans write anything positive about turnout the dems have to shut us down but they can  go into pages about texas lol what babies...

Instead of whining about it, how about you go into the data and show us exactly how we're wrong. Otherwise, and I mean no offense, you're not really contributing anything here with posts like these.

LOL there’s no amount of data digging or argumentation that would convince Atlas D hacks because they just don’t want to believe it. Don’t pretend that the reason you jump on any little thing am R posts is because he hasn’t ‘dug into the data enough’, that’s straight horse sh**t.

Frankly turnout reports are pretty worthless this election because no one knows what absentee cast in person turnout will be. They’re just all we have to go on so many posters here like to try to read the tea leaves. As long as people understand that it’s an inexact art at best and pure nonsense at worst, there’s no problem with that.

Sure thing. You just proved my point. I'm not saying that they haven't dug into the data enough. I'm saying that they're not talking about it in any meaningful way at all and instead resort to defensive reeling or dismissals,  much like you in this post.

It is not predictive of final results, of course that's been said enough times here, but it can indicate enthusiasm and potential turnout differentials. But by all means, LOL away.

Listen man as a Republican I’m happy with how Nevada is going right now and it isn’t this double digit lead all you people are thinking is going to happen. I am backing it up with facts with how the pundits are stating the turnout isn’t as strong as 2016, doesn’t mean republicans win the state but it’s a red flag for Dems to watch out for. Nobody knows who’s going to win since all the normal election things to look out for are thrown out the door so all ur data about high turnout... means republicans and democrats are turning out it’s not some big dem blow out boo.

I don't disagree that Nevada is the most likely Hillary state to flip Trump, but Ralston knows his stuff and Nevada is one of the only states where we can actually model a little bit from the EV. If Ralston is saying numbers are good for Dems, numbers are good for Dems.

[Horus]

So... Let me get this straight. Democrat's statewide advantage grew between yesterday and today despite there not being any votes reported yet from Miami-Dade, and now Florida is red?

Yeah I'm not seeing the problem? Florida was always going to be close, today's numbers so far look like they're pretty much breaking even.

[Horus]

Ralston reported that Reps beat Dems 2-1 in Washoe today.

yeah:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1318765844831244289

Republicans voting for Biden? Still very early and the Clark firewall still stands.

Biden will likely still win Nevada but Washoe is home to a growing number of California "expats", they are super pro Trump.

[Horus]

I'm a pretty big doomer but I'm not seeing the horrible problems for Biden?

Only so much can be determined from early voting.

This year is obviously different due to COVID.

Dem turnout is supercharged.

I don't put a whole lot of stock into the EV threads, but the one from four years ago had better numbers for Trump AND more confidence in Clinton. I think (hope) we have learned.