2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/17YKazYaUMZ33vmd4YHDKcVdlTkP5DmnHQQlAttwOzL0/edit#gid=1837208868

Dem lead 375k in Florida now.

Dems with a 7 point lead in Sumter county (The Villages) seems significant.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Is there any data on what the party balance of early voting usually is? Since like 75% of election day voters are Trump supporters due to GOP fearmongering, I'm curious as to how much of the early vote tallies are additional Dem turnout, and how much is a reduction by means of typically-early Republican voters waiting 'til November 3.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

At this rate, Republicans are really going to have to count on a robust Election Day turnout. Or this is just more proof that more Democrats are motivated to vote right now.

Republicans better hope their voters have a lot of patience because I'm sensing the lines on November 3 are gonna be enormous.

Wouldn't doubt a decent amount of their voters sit the election out due to not wanting to wait in line and/or disenchantment over Trump's dim chances (As if it couldn't get more 1980).

They wouldn't do this (and they shouldn't), but if Democrats wanted to play super dirty, they could close/reduce polling place access on election day in states with Dem Secs of State (under the guise of "the majority have already voted) and absolutely wreak havoc downballot. Beat the GOP at their own game.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Day 3 of early voting in Texas (October 15) (In-person + VBM)


HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)
2012:   197,987      9.9%
2016:   287,134     12.9%
2018:   245,951     10.5%
2020:   398,966     16.1%

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)
2012:   118,698     10.1%
2016:   185,761     14.4%
2018:   179,875     13.5%
2020:   213,606     15.3%

TARRANT COUNTY (Fort Worth)
2012:   118,027     12.1%
2016:   154,192     14.3%
2018:   142,494     12.7%
2020:   174,568     14.4%

BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)
2012:   106,548     11.6%
2016:   137,669     13.2%
2018:   118,709     10.8%
2020:   165,479     13.9%

TRAVIS COUNTY (Austin)
2012:    56,220      8.9%
2016:   121,897     16.8%
2018:   115,123     14.8%
2020:   140,588     16.4%

COLLIN COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:    56,646     12.3%
2016:    96,899     18.1%
2018:    97,324     16.8%
2020:   122,038     18.8%

DENTON COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:    43,336     11.2%
2016:    63,166     13.6%
2018:    64,273     12.9%
2020:   117,894     20.9%

EL PASO COUNTY (El Paso)
2012:    28,003      7.3%
2016:    51,317     12.0%
2018:    54,015     11.9%
2020:    70,577     14.5%

HIDALGO COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:    34,783     11.4%
2016:    53,752     15.9%
2018:    44,982     12.4%
2020:    58,986     15.1%

WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2012:    30,465     12.0%
2016:    57,576     19.2%
2018:    60,676     18.3%
2020:    80,335     21.3%

MONTGOMERY COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:    35,607     13.4%
2016:    45,941     14.7%
2018:    44,556     13.4%
2020:    47,899     12.9%

GALVESTON COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:    26,404     14.2%
2016:    35,782     17.2%
2018:    34,153     16.1%
2020:    53,036     23.3%

CAMERON COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:    13,429      7.4%
2016:    21,831     11.0%
2018:    21,563     10.4%
2020:    32,696     14.9%

NUECES COUNTY (Corpus Christi)
2012:    17,554      9.1%
2016:    23,766     11.9%
2018:    26,381     12.9%
2020:    36,579     17.3%

Very promising numbers all around. The number that I’m curious about is Galveston and what’s causing the marked surge in voting there compared to Montgomery County, a heavily Republican County where the vote is flat.

Could be that a lot of Republican voters are holding out to Election day to vote.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Day 4 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM) (October 16

HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)
2012:   252,752     12.6%
2016:   366,483     16.4%
2018:   304,889     13.0%
2020:   511,675     20.6%

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)
2012:   151,141     12.8%
2016:   232,807     18.1%
2018:   222,957     16.7%
2020:   275,607     19.7%

TARRANT COUNTY (Fort Worth)
2012:   147,251     15.1%
2016:   195,816     18.2%
2018:   178,814     15.9%
2020:   227,291     18.8%

BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)
2012:   138,203     15.1%
2016:   177,661     17.0%
2018:   153,135     13.9%
2020:   209,439     17.6%

TRAVIS COUNTY (Austin)
2012:    74,805     11.8%
2016:   157,571     21.7%
2018:   147,325     19.0%
2020:   186,280     21.8%

COLLIN COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:     72,485     15.8%
2016:   122,582     22.8%
2018:   119,114     20.5%
2020:   162,458     25.0%

DENTON COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:     56,044     14.5%
2016:     83,286     17.9%
2018:     82,914     16.7%
2020:   152,423     27.0%

EL PASO COUNTY (El Paso)
2012:    36,427      9.5%
2016:    66,657     15.6%
2018:    66,887     14.7%
2020:    87,695     18.0%

FORT BEND COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:    58,227     17.1%
2016:    80,321     19.9%
2018:    78,519     18.2%
2020:    92,097     19.1%

HIDALGO COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:    43,236     14.2%
2016:    65,635     19.4%
2018:    54,427     15.1%
2020:    73,101     18.7%

WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2012:     39,058     15.4%
2016:     72,714     24.2%
2018:     74,933     22.5%
2020:   104,281     27.7%

MONTGOMERY COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:    45,490     17.2%
2016:    58,615     18.8%
2018:    55,500     16.6%
2020:    63,334     17.1%

GALVESTON COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:    33,085     17.9%
2016:    44,950     21.6%
2018:    41,145     19.4%
2020:    66,554     29.1%

CAMERON COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:    17,183      9.5%
2016:    27,678     14.0%
2018:    26,046     12.6%
2020:    40,214     18.4%

NUECES COUNTY (Corpus Christi)
2012:    22,403     11.7%
2016:    30,272     15.2%
2018:    31,625     15.4%
2020:    46,341     21.9%

I'm finding these numbers difficult to parse. Why is Austin staying even with 2016 while the Dallas suburbs are exploding?

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

There will be a war against VBM and a real push to not have those ballot counted.  Counting them will mean Trump loses and he’ll do whatever he can to win, even cheat.  They’ll create a court battle over it somehow.

I feel like that'll be difficult to justify when Trump himself voted by mail.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725280459067392
https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725749508014080
Reps had a good EV day but Dems keep up there VBM dominance

Seems like Miami-Dade not being included here is a pretty big caveat.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

So...let me get this straight.
It is apparently a good thing for Democrats that there is extremely high in-person voter turnout in Texas....but in nearly every other state we have data, Republicans outnumber Democrats with the in-person vote?

Texas doesn't have a robust VBM system, you can only VBM if you're 65+ or disabled.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Man the NC voter file is so detailed and with so many early voters the Biden campaign so much data in that state to literally go and physically turn out D voters that haven't voted yet.

Is there anywhere that sorts it by congressional district? I want to see the returns for NC-11.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Surprised no one is talking about Nebraska, where 310K people have already voted, and a plurality is still Democrats. They also have a much higher return rate among mail-ins than Reps do - 70% vs 57%

Probably because NE-SEN is not competitive because of Dems splitting between Janicek and the write-in.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1318997603695034369

Clark firewall already at 61.5k, per Ralston.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1318655274576711680

51% turnout almost 2 weeks from Election Day seems pretty good.

Does Falls Church have a reputation as a bellweather? Curious as to why its brought up so much here.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Day 8 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM) (October 20)

HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)
2012:   486,037     24.3%
2016:   640,503     28.7%  (54.9% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   573,302     24.5%
2020:   801,807     32.3%  (61.1% of 2016 turnout)

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)
2012:   281,316     23.9%
2016:   362,549     28.2%  (51.1% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   364,032     27.3%
2020:   444,955     31.8%  (58.6% of 2016 turnout)

TARRANT COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:   266,388     27.3%
2016:   338,919     31.5%  (55.5% of 2012 turnout)  
2018:   314,494     28.0%
2020:   361,959     29.9%  (54.1% of 2016 turnout)

BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)
2012:   237,746     25.9%
2016:   308,654     29.5%  (60.1% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   277,326     25.3%
2020:   356,650     30.0%  (60.5% of 2016 turnout)

TRAVIS COUNTY (Austin)
2012:   137,627     18.6%
2016:   249,172     30.9%  (64.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   242,780     27.9%
2020:   308,718     31.6%  (65.9% of 2016 turnout)

COLLIN COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:   138,032     30.1%
2016:   209,114     39.0%  (69.1% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   202,385     34.9%
2020:   265,812     41.0%  (73.6% of 2016 turnout)

DENTON COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:   107,145     27.7%
2016:   157,651     33.9%  (64.9% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   154,629     31.1%
2020:   227,816     40.3%  (76.3% of 2016 turnout)

EL PASO COUNTY (El Paso)
2012:     60,645     15.8%
2016:   100,654     23.5%  (58.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     98,245     21.6%
2020:   126,788     26.0%  (59.2% of 2016 turnout)

FORT BEND COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:   108,659     32.0%
2016:   143,505     35.5%  (65.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   137,365     31.8%
2020:   165,223     34.3%  (63.1% of 2016 turnout)

HIDALGO COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:     67,965     22.3%
2016:     95,218     28.1%  (68.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     79,595     22.0%
2020:   107,749     27.5%  (62.1% of 2016 turnout)

WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2012:     66,385     26.2%
2016:   112,568     37.5%  (69.0% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   115,508     34.6%
2020:   155,785     41.3%  (76.7% of 2016 turnout)

MONTGOMERY COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:     82,370     31.1%
2016:   104,503     33.5%  (60.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     96,473     28.9%
2020:   113,701     30.7%  (55.6% of 2016 turnout)

GALVESTON COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:     56,025     30.2%
2016:     72,446     34.8%  (65.8% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     65,096     30.6%
2020:     83,773     36.7%  (68.2% of 2016 turnout)

CAMERON COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:     26,144     14.5%
2016:     41,294     20.9%  (53.7% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     37,890     18.3%
2020:     57,123     26.1%  (62.0% of 2016 turnout)

NUECES COUNTY (Corpus Christi)
2012:     39,029     20.3%
2016:     48,267     24.2%  (50.2% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     46,724     22.8%
2020:     66,335     31.3%  (63.5% of 2016 turnout)

Lol, looks more like population change than true higher turnout % numbers.

Williamson and Denton counties would beg to differ. Also remember that there's an extra week of EV compared to 2016 and that more people voted by mail than 2016.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Nevada fooled the GOP agian lol

Could also be used for Iowa after people get their hopes up again over promising early vote returns there, lol

in 2012 D early vote lead was 68 k, 288 k D voted early.
in 2016 D early vote lead was 42 k, 267 k D voted early
in 2020 D early vote lead is 136 k,  already 324 k D voted early.
So, it is not fair comparison.  2020 is not 2016.

Dems had a huge lead in 2018.

What are you talking about? Dems lead in 2018 was only 35,000 https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/04/iowa-early-voting-numbers-democrats-republican-governor-house-vote-absentee-ballots-2018-election/1884214002/

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Some interesting returns by Congressional district in CA here: https://www.politicaldata.com/2020-ballot-returns-top-25-searches/

Dems way up so far in CA-25 and CA-50. Smaller lead in CA-22.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Iowa early voting stats has been updated.
IA-1
D 92664
R 47015
D+ 45649

IA-2
D  91775
R 46603
D+ 45172

IA-3
D 92411
R 48850
D+ 43561

IA-4
D 59930
R 57118
D+ 2812

Total
D 336780
R 199586
D+ 137194
Total 649483 people voted early

D have added another 1500 votes to their lead.

R are slowly closing return rate gap with Dem. They have cut D's advantage in IA 4 from 4300 yesterday to 2800 today but still lose the day to Dem due to Dem's strength in other three districts.

POLOK county still has relatively low return rate Dem should concentrate on that county to increase their lead more.

860393 people requested for early voting. Yesterday it was 842000 ,so 18000 new people requested early vote. If the momentum continue another 150000 people will request ballots.

Therefore I think more than 1 million Iowan will vote early. Which is around 64% of 2016.

Well known bellwether, Polok County IA will tell us who wins this election.
I think the media should cover it a bit more considering how pivotal the margins here are.

Iowa's 6 electoral vote may not be important but Iowa's senate seat is essential for Dem majority in senate.
Otherwise Dem will become hostage of Joe Manchin will.

I think he's just mocking your typo of "Polk" but you're definitely right there. My greatest fear is having senate policy hinge on Manchin/Sinema

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Non Swing Voter is right that you guys should be looking at the turnout % among Dems and Reps, not the raw vote margin between the two. If Dem turnout is higher, that’s a good sign.

Also you guys need to stop this weird assumption that Election Day turnout will be like 90-10 R.

Most polls are showing at least a 70-30 R disparity in voters that plan to vote on 11/3, though

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Wait, Michael McDonald is a GOP operative?

 I always thought he was just a nonpartisan numbers guy.

Not sure if you're joking but there's two Michael McDonalds, one's the chair of the NV GOP and the other is the ElectProject guy.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

The California #s are truly insane.

Partisanship of first 5 million ballots returned
2016: Dem 46, Rep 32, Other 22 (Dem +14)
2018: Dem 45, Rep 31, Other 24 (Dem +14)
2020: Dem 56, Rep 21, Other 23 (Dem +35)

https://capitolweekly.net/ca120-a-historic-flood-of-over-5-million-mail-in-ballots/#disqus_thread

Also of note in places like CA-25, for instance: 30% of Dems have returned ballots already. Only 19% of Reps have.

https://tableau.the-pdi.com/t/CampaignTools/views/2020GeneralBaseAVTrackerforVIZBOT/2020GeneralElectionTrackerVIZBOT?Geography%20Selection=Congressional%20District&Geography%20Selection%20Filter=CD%2025%20-%2025TH%20CONGRESSIONAL%20DISTRICT&:isGuestRedirectFromVizportal=y&:embed=y

Of note, CA-22 is currently D+7 and CA-50 is currently D+12(!!!!)

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

No early votes in NY? Or are they still counting the dem primaries...

Early voting here starts tomorrow, and I don't think they're reporting absentees (though people I know have submitted them and they've been accepted)

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

In Iowa there are 690252 active  Dems
350369 Dems have voted early.
428911 Dems have requested ballots
50.75% active Dems have voted early
62.14% active Dems have requested ballots

Does Iowa have "true" in person early voting? Or is it something like in-person absentee where you register, request, vote, and submit in one stop?

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Sorry if this question seems dense, but can somebody spell out for me what is going on in Florida, preferably in a simultaneously non-doomer and non-optimist way? Do Democrats really need a 650k party advantage by election day? Are Republicans actually surging and beating expectations? Does this take into account how NPA are likely to vote? (Who do those voters even favor?) And does any of this give us any insight into who's favored? I'm not looking for any particular answer, I'm just having a hard time grasping this.

Thanks in advance.

Dems have a big mail lead and people are bedwetting because it's slowly trickling down as Republicans vote early in-person. The 650k number was thrown out by someone on this board but there's no real reason to believe that's the true firewall number (I believe it was based on the assumptions that FL voting patterns would mirror that of, say, Pennsylvania, but that's not the case as Floridians have been voting early for a long time so it's more culturally ingrained).

Dems have a slight registration advantage and NPA's skew Democratic, so all Dems need to do is match Republican turnout and we should be fine.

Unfortunately, Having a lead and seeing it slowly erode is torturous for a lot of people on here, apparently.