2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Just got my mail ballot today, will be returning it tomorrow.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://twitter.com/HarrisVotes/status/1316880132641050624

yeah something is going on in Texas.  Beto-mentum?

I want to believe

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Does Ohio look terrible for Biden at the moment? only 47k in Cuyahoga so far?

Really depends on whether that's because people aren't returning their ballots or if the county is being slow to process returned ballots. For example, take a look at Cook County in Illinois... it's at 1% returned, but I'm willing to bet it's just the county dragging their feet when it comes to processing the ballots or reporting numbers.

I feel like Cuyahoga is known for reporting slow on election night, so it wouldn't surprise me if they are behind before the election as well.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Dropped off my mail ballot at the county elections office this morning. Pretty steady stream of other people dropping them off as well. This is the first year we've had mail voting in PA, so can't make any comparisons to previous elections, sadly.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Dems lead Rep by 394.3 k in early voting. Dems lead Rep by 74.7 to 17.0 in terms of percentage.
In Philadelphia 156 k people have already voted.
Allegheny 190 k
Chester 49k
Lancaster 36 k
Northhampton 36 k

Some of these PA counties are taking forever to report their numbers, especially the Philly burbs. It’s annoying.

Totally  agree with you. Bucks has 0.6 % return rate
Montgomery has 1% return rate

I think both counties had delays sending out their ballots, apparently most weren't sent until just a few days ago.

This was the case in York County as well

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

(Tweet snip)

Plus, Travis County is at 40% of total 2016 turnout!!!

186,280/468,720 = 39.74%
https://countyclerk.traviscountytx.gov/images/pdfs/election_results/2020.11.03/G20_Daily_Totals_Oct16.pdf

Denton & Williamson Counties reached 50% of total 2016 turnout today. On the fourth day of early voting in 2018, they were at 28% & 37%.

The suburbs are coming in hot!

Regardless of what the final outcome is there, it is going to be important to witness what is happening in Texas this year.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I feel like Pennsylvania is really struggling with the voting by mail.

They have been getting the PSAs out in force lately on how to fill out and submit your ballots, which is good at least. But no denying there have been some glitches with our first year doing this.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

That Denton number... something wild is happening in that county.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

That Denton number... something wild is happening in that county.

2010 census: 662,614
2015 estimate: 778,846
2019 estimate: 887,207

Denton County is literally not the same place it was 8 or even 4 years ago.

This seems correct. It's really looking like the Texas version of Loudon County.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725280459067392
https://mobile.twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318725749508014080
Reps had a good EV day but Dems keep up there VBM dominance

Deeply deeply concerning.

I mean for republicans to catch up, it was bound to happen especially of alot of Dems go vbm. It's possible for some Dems to switch from vbm to in-person but it won't be done fully

Yea Im not really seeing where this is surprising or concerning

Look at predictit

Predictit is full of morons, and you can tell them that I said that.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Surprised no one is talking about Nebraska, where 310K people have already voted, and a plurality is still Democrats. They also have a much higher return rate among mail-ins than Reps do - 70% vs 57%

Probably because NE-SEN is not competitive because of Dems splitting between Janicek and the write-in.

You do have to wonder if at some point NE-01 becomes competitive for president. My assumption is probably not, but with a year as weird as 2020 has been it might not be impossible.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I'm assuming that voting online will probably become a thing in the next couple decades, it's kind of the only current civic engagement you can't do online. This rendering these lines moot.

As of now I believe Estonia is the only country in the world that allows it, but I can't see it failing to spread.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Maybe the big surge in early voting means fewer people who vote on Election Day? Maybe it is the weekend effect? Maybe this doesn’t take into account  “Biden Republicans”?

This seems like the sensible conclusion.