2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

1.6 million out of the 4.2 million ballots here in FL have been sent out with Dems having a 300k lead on that

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

1.9 million ballots now sent out today (an increase of 250k from yesterday) with Dems having a 310k lead here in FL

Democrats - 881,023
Republicans - 569,846
NPA - 406,308
Other parties (Libertarians, Greens, Prohibitionists, Constitutionalists) - 20,688

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I think people here are forgetting that an equally large numbers of R's will vote more than D's on Election Day and if the pattern holds from the Aug party, in person early voting will lean R

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Still not sure why exactly Dems need a 600K early vote advantage in Florida but doesn't it seem like they are on track to get it?  Their advantage is growing like 30K a day and there's almost nothing in from Orange and Miami Dade.

Because a lot of people will assume E-Day will be like 80-20 for Trump and want to bank as many votes as possible before then.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

This "modeler" was absolutely garbage in 2016 and was IIRC way off the mark in 2018 as well.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

https://twitter.com/DavidPepper/status/1313501402963021826

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

My parents both sent in their ballots today, one for Trump and one for Biden

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

We're almost at 2.1 million votes cast here in Florida, and early in person doesn't even start until Monday

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Broward is at 27% of 2016 turnout
PBC is at 34% of 2016 turnout
MDC is at 21% of 2016 turnout
Pinellas is at 32% of 2016 turnout
Hillsborough is at 30% of 2016 turnout
Orange is at 22% of 2016 turnout

And this is before any in-person early votes are cast

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Those Florida numbers are still gobsmacking. Even when Obama won in 2012 Democrats only had a 3% lead at the end of early voting. I’m not saying it’s in the bag for Biden (obviously this election’s voting patterns are going to be different), but it does seem like a lot to overcome on Election Day.

Early voting starts Monday and I expect Republicans to start narrowing the gap once people start voting in person, this is what happened in the aug primary, Dems had a lead with mail in votes and the GOP led with early voting and e-day voting, but overall Dems won the total vote because of their advantage with mail ins, I wonder if that pattern will hold now

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

My early voting site is predicting 2,100 voters tomorrow, it was 1,600 in 2016

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I'm in line at my early voting site, 35 minute wait time at my precinct, first time ever I have ever had to wait, 217 people have already voted in my county 20 mins into early voting

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

JUST the first hour of voting

https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1318158149531160576

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Where do people get the 250k lead from?

This is from the Florida DOS site for 2016?



It was like 76k?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Ralston reported that Reps beat Dems 2-1 in Washoe today.

yeah:

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1318765844831244289

Maybe it was a mistake telling Dems to vote by mail instead?

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Florida is at 38% of our 2016 turnout, if we get ~500k tomorrow we could get to 43% tomorrow