2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[soundchaser]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1318997603695034369

Clark firewall already at 61.5k, per Ralston.

In his blog post Ralston mentions it was 45k at the end of 2016 early voting.

Statewide. In Clark it was 70k.

[riceowl]

The meme game in the Harris Votes twitter has been quite strong.

[Thomas D]

I don't know why I'm asking all of you, I Live here after all, But what is with Baltimore County?

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/MD.html

[Rep Jessica]

Missouri SOS Office
@MissouriSOS
 · 9m
As of 5 p.m. October 18:

-53,522 mail-in ballots requested
-504,086 absentee ballots requested
-367,811 absentee and mail-in ballots (combined) received by local election authorities
#TrustedInfo2020 #VoteReady
 #MOVotes #moleg

[GeorgiaModerate]

Missouri SOS Office
@MissouriSOS
 · 9m
As of 5 p.m. October 18:

-53,522 mail-in ballots requested
-504,086 absentee ballots requested
-367,811 absentee and mail-in ballots (combined) received by local election authorities
#TrustedInfo2020 #VoteReady
 #MOVotes #moleg

What's the difference between absentee and mail-in here?

[Holmes]

I don't know why I'm asking all of you, I Live here after all, But what is with Baltimore County?

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/MD.html

Could just be they’re slow to report. Also look at the Philly burbs and Cook.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Nevada fooled the GOP agian lol

Could also be used for Iowa after people get their hopes up again over promising early vote returns there, lol

in 2012 D early vote lead was 68 k, 288 k D voted early.
in 2016 D early vote lead was 42 k, 267 k D voted early
in 2020 D early vote lead is 136 k,  already 324 k D voted early.
So, it is not fair comparison.  2020 is not 2016.

Dems had a huge lead in 2018.

[Non Swing Voter]

I don't know why I'm asking all of you, I Live here after all, But what is with Baltimore County?

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/MD.html

Could just be they’re slow to report. Also look at the Philly burbs and Cook.

Agreed.  That's my hunch.  Looks just like Philly suburbs where the results have really been trickling in slowly.  Which is highly annoying given it's a very important vote region in arguably the most important state in the country.

[philly09]

In GA, AA make up 31.4% of the Mail-In Vote and 28.7% of the In Person Vote.

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia: As of the 5 PM update, 178,436 votes were cast on Wednesday.

This includes 134,368 in-person votes and 44,068 mail ballots.

Total ballots cast in GA are now 1,285,039 in-person & 805,442 by mail, for a grand total of 2,090,481 (50.18% of 2016 total vote).

Georgia's EV total has officially surpassed 1) 50% of all votes cast in 2016, and 2) Trump's 2016 raw vote total (2,089,104).

[TopShelfGoal]

Day 8 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM) (October 20)

HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)
2012:   486,037     24.3%
2016:   640,503     28.7%  (54.9% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   573,302     24.5%
2020:   801,807     32.3%  (61.1% of 2016 turnout)

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)
2012:   281,316     23.9%
2016:   362,549     28.2%  (51.1% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   364,032     27.3%
2020:   444,955     31.8%  (58.6% of 2016 turnout)

TARRANT COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:   266,388     27.3%
2016:   338,919     31.5%  (55.5% of 2012 turnout)  
2018:   314,494     28.0%
2020:   361,959     29.9%  (54.1% of 2016 turnout)

BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)
2012:   237,746     25.9%
2016:   308,654     29.5%  (60.1% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   277,326     25.3%
2020:   356,650     30.0%  (60.5% of 2016 turnout)

TRAVIS COUNTY (Austin)
2012:   137,627     18.6%
2016:   249,172     30.9%  (64.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   242,780     27.9%
2020:   308,718     31.6%  (65.9% of 2016 turnout)

COLLIN COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:   138,032     30.1%
2016:   209,114     39.0%  (69.1% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   202,385     34.9%
2020:   265,812     41.0%  (73.6% of 2016 turnout)

DENTON COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:   107,145     27.7%
2016:   157,651     33.9%  (64.9% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   154,629     31.1%
2020:   227,816     40.3%  (76.3% of 2016 turnout)

EL PASO COUNTY (El Paso)
2012:     60,645     15.8%
2016:   100,654     23.5%  (58.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     98,245     21.6%
2020:   126,788     26.0%  (59.2% of 2016 turnout)

FORT BEND COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:   108,659     32.0%
2016:   143,505     35.5%  (65.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   137,365     31.8%
2020:   165,223     34.3%  (63.1% of 2016 turnout)

HIDALGO COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:     67,965     22.3%
2016:     95,218     28.1%  (68.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     79,595     22.0%
2020:   107,749     27.5%  (62.1% of 2016 turnout)

WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2012:     66,385     26.2%
2016:   112,568     37.5%  (69.0% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   115,508     34.6%
2020:   155,785     41.3%  (76.7% of 2016 turnout)

MONTGOMERY COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:     82,370     31.1%
2016:   104,503     33.5%  (60.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     96,473     28.9%
2020:   113,701     30.7%  (55.6% of 2016 turnout)

GALVESTON COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:     56,025     30.2%
2016:     72,446     34.8%  (65.8% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     65,096     30.6%
2020:     83,773     36.7%  (68.2% of 2016 turnout)

CAMERON COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:     26,144     14.5%
2016:     41,294     20.9%  (53.7% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     37,890     18.3%
2020:     57,123     26.1%  (62.0% of 2016 turnout)

NUECES COUNTY (Corpus Christi)
2012:     39,029     20.3%
2016:     48,267     24.2%  (50.2% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     46,724     22.8%
2020:     66,335     31.3%  (63.5% of 2016 turnout)

Where do you get the "number thus far in EV in 2016/2018" from? Do you know how Randall County and Lubbock County are in turnout relative to 16/18? I wanna see if these two decently sized strongly GOP counties in the panhandle are showing a spike in turnout like these metro area counties are.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Nevada fooled the GOP agian lol

Could also be used for Iowa after people get their hopes up again over promising early vote returns there, lol

in 2012 D early vote lead was 68 k, 288 k D voted early.
in 2016 D early vote lead was 42 k, 267 k D voted early
in 2020 D early vote lead is 136 k,  already 324 k D voted early.
So, it is not fair comparison.  2020 is not 2016.

Dems had a huge lead in 2018.

Trends, I like you. You're a good poster, and I hope you understand that I say this with the deepest respect and  utmost of love... but I really hope Iowa humiliates you on November 3rd like Kentucky humiliated you last year.

[It’s so Joever]

The only people being fooled are those who think Biden will win any sunbelt swing state other than AZ.

[T0rM3nTeD]

Up to 42.1M votes now

[TopShelfGoal]

Electronic voting machines might as well be "online voting" in terms of security. It's not like they exist outside the internet, as they all need to have access to software patches, updates, etc.

Aren't they air-gapped though during normal operations and only "online" during maintenance?

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Nevada fooled the GOP agian lol

Could also be used for Iowa after people get their hopes up again over promising early vote returns there, lol

in 2012 D early vote lead was 68 k, 288 k D voted early.
in 2016 D early vote lead was 42 k, 267 k D voted early
in 2020 D early vote lead is 136 k,  already 324 k D voted early.
So, it is not fair comparison.  2020 is not 2016.

Dems had a huge lead in 2018.

What are you talking about? Dems lead in 2018 was only 35,000 https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/04/iowa-early-voting-numbers-democrats-republican-governor-house-vote-absentee-ballots-2018-election/1884214002/

[Adam Griffin]

Top 10 states (as of ElectProject's most recent updates - many totals are from yesterday; share of '16 total vote):

TX: 59.3
VT: 53.4
NJ: 50.4
NM: 47.8
MT: 47.1
GA: 45.9
NC: 45.2
TN: 42.6
VA: 39.3
IA: 38.5

[Skill and Chance]

Top 10 states (as of yesterday; share of '16 total vote):

TX: 59.3
VT: 53.4
NJ: 50.4
NM: 47.8
MT: 47.1
GA: 45.9
NC: 45.2
TN: 42.6
VA: 39.3
IA: 38.5

Hmmm, looks like VA really slowed down.

[Flabuckeye]

Wow, Dems are killing it in AZ!  

Already 40.4% Dem turnout in Maricopa (Rs at 29.5%)
and 49.4% Dem TO in Pima (Rs at 32.9%)

Dems up statewide 125,940

See Sam Almy twitter (I'm a newbie and can't link)

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Wow, Dems are killing it in AZ!  

Already 40.4% Dem turnout in Maricopa (Rs at 29.5%)
and 49.4% Dem TO in Pima (Rs at 32.9%)

Dems up statewide 125,940

See Sam Almy twitter (I'm a newbie and can't link)

I gotchu, fam.  The six-hour-old Maricopa County tweet has already been linked, but here's the recent one from Pima:

https://twitter.com/sfalmy/status/1319025740977848320?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ct...

[Bootes Void]

Top 10 states (as of yesterday; share of '16 total vote):

TX: 59.3
VT: 53.4
NJ: 50.4
NM: 47.8
MT: 47.1
GA: 45.9
NC: 45.2
TN: 42.6
VA: 39.3
IA: 38.5

Hmmm, looks like VA really slowed down.

Does VA have in-person turnout?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Nevada fooled the GOP agian lol

Could also be used for Iowa after people get their hopes up again over promising early vote returns there, lol

in 2012 D early vote lead was 68 k, 288 k D voted early.
in 2016 D early vote lead was 42 k, 267 k D voted early
in 2020 D early vote lead is 136 k,  already 324 k D voted early.
So, it is not fair comparison.  2020 is not 2016.

Dems had a huge lead in 2018.

Don't just say "huge lead". Give us the actual numbers.

Edit: I see other people already have. Please take note, and next time use actual data instead of meaningless words.

[The Mikado]

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1318985598787530752

So what I'm hearing out of that is that Dems have to be up by 600k in order to win Florida?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Harris was at 53k and Travis at 21k as of 4:30 local. Both point to counties being on pace to have over 100% of the 2016 vote in at the end of early voting in those counties.

[wbrocks67]

The only people being fooled are those who think Biden will win any sunbelt swing state other than AZ.

Huh?