2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[The Other Castro]

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1318985598787530752

[Bootes Void]

Georgia: As of noon, 81,335 votes have been cast in Georgia (in-person & mail). Total EV as of noon is 1,993,380.

already exceeded clinton total and will exceed trump's total tommorow

[Adam Griffin]

Georgia: As of noon, 81,335 votes have been cast in Georgia (in-person & mail). Total EV as of noon is 1,993,380.

already exceeded clinton total and will exceed trump's total tommorow

Will likely exceed Trump's total today. As of noon yesterday, GA had 82k votes cast; ultimately cast 214k for the whole day. We started with 1912k total after yesterday: add 200k to that and that's more than Trump's total.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Day 8 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM) (October 20)

HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)
2012:   486,037     24.3%
2016:   640,503     28.7%  (54.9% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   573,302     24.5%
2020:   801,807     32.3%  (61.1% of 2016 turnout)

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)
2012:   281,316     23.9%
2016:   362,549     28.2%  (51.1% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   364,032     27.3%
2020:   444,955     31.8%  (58.6% of 2016 turnout)

TARRANT COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:   266,388     27.3%
2016:   338,919     31.5%  (55.5% of 2012 turnout)  
2018:   314,494     28.0%
2020:   361,959     29.9%  (54.1% of 2016 turnout)

BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)
2012:   237,746     25.9%
2016:   308,654     29.5%  (60.1% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   277,326     25.3%
2020:   356,650     30.0%  (60.5% of 2016 turnout)

TRAVIS COUNTY (Austin)
2012:   137,627     18.6%
2016:   249,172     30.9%  (64.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   242,780     27.9%
2020:   308,718     31.6%  (65.9% of 2016 turnout)

COLLIN COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:   138,032     30.1%
2016:   209,114     39.0%  (69.1% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   202,385     34.9%
2020:   265,812     41.0%  (73.6% of 2016 turnout)

DENTON COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:   107,145     27.7%
2016:   157,651     33.9%  (64.9% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   154,629     31.1%
2020:   227,816     40.3%  (76.3% of 2016 turnout)

EL PASO COUNTY (El Paso)
2012:     60,645     15.8%
2016:   100,654     23.5%  (58.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     98,245     21.6%
2020:   126,788     26.0%  (59.2% of 2016 turnout)

FORT BEND COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:   108,659     32.0%
2016:   143,505     35.5%  (65.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   137,365     31.8%
2020:   165,223     34.3%  (63.1% of 2016 turnout)

HIDALGO COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:     67,965     22.3%
2016:     95,218     28.1%  (68.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     79,595     22.0%
2020:   107,749     27.5%  (62.1% of 2016 turnout)

WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2012:     66,385     26.2%
2016:   112,568     37.5%  (69.0% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   115,508     34.6%
2020:   155,785     41.3%  (76.7% of 2016 turnout)

MONTGOMERY COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:     82,370     31.1%
2016:   104,503     33.5%  (60.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     96,473     28.9%
2020:   113,701     30.7%  (55.6% of 2016 turnout)

GALVESTON COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:     56,025     30.2%
2016:     72,446     34.8%  (65.8% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     65,096     30.6%
2020:     83,773     36.7%  (68.2% of 2016 turnout)

CAMERON COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:     26,144     14.5%
2016:     41,294     20.9%  (53.7% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     37,890     18.3%
2020:     57,123     26.1%  (62.0% of 2016 turnout)

NUECES COUNTY (Corpus Christi)
2012:     39,029     20.3%
2016:     48,267     24.2%  (50.2% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     46,724     22.8%
2020:     66,335     31.3%  (63.5% of 2016 turnout)

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1318997603695034369

Clark firewall already at 61.5k, per Ralston.

[Lief 🗽]

Gonna need to move NV to “Safe D” soon.

[ExSky]

Nevada is burying whatever hope the gop had

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1318985598787530752

Wait, the 600k meme started outside of atlas?

[Non Swing Voter]

Nevada is burying whatever hope the gop had

I think that the GOP is expecting to lose Michigan, Wisconsin, NE-2. 

They are probably trying to find one or two Clinton states that will protect them if and when they lose either Pennsylvania or Arizona. 

The problem is that Joe Biden is a better candidate than Clinton so there doesn't seem to be any state that's ripe for this endeavor.  Nevada was probably their best bet but their chances look to be fading.

[Holmes]

Nevada is burying whatever hope the gop had

But Republicans are outvoting Democrats in the in person early voting. And we all know in person early voting has greater value than mail ballots.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1318655274576711680

51% turnout almost 2 weeks from Election Day seems pretty good.

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/1318985598787530752

Wait, the 600k meme started outside of atlas?

alot of political memes and political talking points that I have seen outside of atlas seems to be originally first comes to atlas then spreads out. the internet world(political) is much smaller than you would think. i see atlas talking points being repeated on twitter, reddit, predictit and comments in political articles like as if its a cycle.

as for the 600k meme, I have no idea of how people came up with that number. its like somebody here  said dems need 600k before election and everyone like "okay well roll with it" without even thinking why that it is it

[GeorgiaModerate]

Nevada is burying whatever hope the gop had

I think that the GOP is expecting to lose Michigan, Wisconsin, NE-2. 

They are probably trying to find one or two Clinton states that will protect them if and when they lose either Pennsylvania or Arizona. 

The problem is that Joe Biden is a better candidate than Clinton so there doesn't seem to be any state that's ripe for this endeavor.  Nevada was probably their best bet but their chances look to be fading.

If Trump loses PA along with WI/MI/NE-2, and assuming he holds onto AZ, then flipping NV alone wouldn't be enough to save him.

[Brittain33]

I donated to the Independent because of Ralston’s blog.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1318655274576711680

51% turnout almost 2 weeks from Election Day seems pretty good.

Does Falls Church have a reputation as a bellweather? Curious as to why its brought up so much here.

[roxas11]

Nevada fooled the GOP agian lol

[Non Swing Voter]

Nevada is burying whatever hope the gop had

I think that the GOP is expecting to lose Michigan, Wisconsin, NE-2. 

They are probably trying to find one or two Clinton states that will protect them if and when they lose either Pennsylvania or Arizona. 

The problem is that Joe Biden is a better candidate than Clinton so there doesn't seem to be any state that's ripe for this endeavor.  Nevada was probably their best bet but their chances look to be fading.

If Trump loses PA along with WI/MI/NE-2, and assuming he holds onto AZ, then flipping NV alone wouldn't be enough to save him.

It's enough if the combo includes AZ but not PA.

He'd need a second state if it's PA but not AZ.  

I think initially he wanted New Hampshire to be that second state but those hopes are clearly done.  So he'd need Minnesota too.  But if he's losing WI/MI he's probably losing MN too.  

So the Nevada strategy seems more tailored to the Arizona scenario.  Which also seems dumb because if he's losing Arizona he's probably also going to lose Nevada.

[Xing]

Gonna need to move NV to “Safe D” soon.

Already done that . Trump was never going to win NV while losing AZ/MI/PA/WI, and in this kind of environment, NV isn't competitive.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Nevada fooled the GOP agian lol

Could also be used for Iowa after people get their hopes up again over promising early vote returns there, lol

[It’s so Joever]

Day 8 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM) (October 20)

HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)
2012:   486,037     24.3%
2016:   640,503     28.7%  (54.9% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   573,302     24.5%
2020:   801,807     32.3%  (61.1% of 2016 turnout)

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)
2012:   281,316     23.9%
2016:   362,549     28.2%  (51.1% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   364,032     27.3%
2020:   444,955     31.8%  (58.6% of 2016 turnout)

TARRANT COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:   266,388     27.3%
2016:   338,919     31.5%  (55.5% of 2012 turnout)  
2018:   314,494     28.0%
2020:   361,959     29.9%  (54.1% of 2016 turnout)

BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)
2012:   237,746     25.9%
2016:   308,654     29.5%  (60.1% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   277,326     25.3%
2020:   356,650     30.0%  (60.5% of 2016 turnout)

TRAVIS COUNTY (Austin)
2012:   137,627     18.6%
2016:   249,172     30.9%  (64.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   242,780     27.9%
2020:   308,718     31.6%  (65.9% of 2016 turnout)

COLLIN COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:   138,032     30.1%
2016:   209,114     39.0%  (69.1% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   202,385     34.9%
2020:   265,812     41.0%  (73.6% of 2016 turnout)

DENTON COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:   107,145     27.7%
2016:   157,651     33.9%  (64.9% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   154,629     31.1%
2020:   227,816     40.3%  (76.3% of 2016 turnout)

EL PASO COUNTY (El Paso)
2012:     60,645     15.8%
2016:   100,654     23.5%  (58.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     98,245     21.6%
2020:   126,788     26.0%  (59.2% of 2016 turnout)

FORT BEND COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:   108,659     32.0%
2016:   143,505     35.5%  (65.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   137,365     31.8%
2020:   165,223     34.3%  (63.1% of 2016 turnout)

HIDALGO COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:     67,965     22.3%
2016:     95,218     28.1%  (68.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     79,595     22.0%
2020:   107,749     27.5%  (62.1% of 2016 turnout)

WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2012:     66,385     26.2%
2016:   112,568     37.5%  (69.0% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   115,508     34.6%
2020:   155,785     41.3%  (76.7% of 2016 turnout)

MONTGOMERY COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:     82,370     31.1%
2016:   104,503     33.5%  (60.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     96,473     28.9%
2020:   113,701     30.7%  (55.6% of 2016 turnout)

GALVESTON COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:     56,025     30.2%
2016:     72,446     34.8%  (65.8% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     65,096     30.6%
2020:     83,773     36.7%  (68.2% of 2016 turnout)

CAMERON COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:     26,144     14.5%
2016:     41,294     20.9%  (53.7% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     37,890     18.3%
2020:     57,123     26.1%  (62.0% of 2016 turnout)

NUECES COUNTY (Corpus Christi)
2012:     39,029     20.3%
2016:     48,267     24.2%  (50.2% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     46,724     22.8%
2020:     66,335     31.3%  (63.5% of 2016 turnout)

Lol, looks more like population change than true higher turnout % numbers.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1318655274576711680

51% turnout almost 2 weeks from Election Day seems pretty good.

Does Falls Church have a reputation as a bellweather? Curious as to why its brought up so much here.

Definitely not a bellwether, this is one of the most liberal areas of the state.  It's deep into Northern Virginia, it's basically all DC city people.  

I've been keeping track of it because their clerk has been giving updated turnout reports every single night for weeks now (before most states even opened early voting) so it's interesting to track the movement.

The one thing I'll note here is that this was a Bernie bro type area.  The kind of area where some argued you'd see softer turnout for Dems if Biden was the nominee.  Clearly not happening as the turnout is much higher than other parts of the state and even most parts of Northern Virginia.

[Bootes Void]

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1318655274576711680

51% turnout almost 2 weeks from Election Day seems pretty good.

Does Falls Church have a reputation as a bellweather? Curious as to why its brought up so much here.

falls church is a typical affluent "whole foods" well educated suburb in northern VA. A lot of political reporters probably live near here and this area exemplify the typical college educated suburb that you hear so much about

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Day 8 of early voting in Texas (In-person + VBM) (October 20)

HARRIS COUNTY (Houston)
2012:   486,037     24.3%
2016:   640,503     28.7%  (54.9% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   573,302     24.5%
2020:   801,807     32.3%  (61.1% of 2016 turnout)

DALLAS COUNTY (Dallas)
2012:   281,316     23.9%
2016:   362,549     28.2%  (51.1% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   364,032     27.3%
2020:   444,955     31.8%  (58.6% of 2016 turnout)

TARRANT COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:   266,388     27.3%
2016:   338,919     31.5%  (55.5% of 2012 turnout)  
2018:   314,494     28.0%
2020:   361,959     29.9%  (54.1% of 2016 turnout)

BEXAR COUNTY (San Antonio)
2012:   237,746     25.9%
2016:   308,654     29.5%  (60.1% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   277,326     25.3%
2020:   356,650     30.0%  (60.5% of 2016 turnout)

TRAVIS COUNTY (Austin)
2012:   137,627     18.6%
2016:   249,172     30.9%  (64.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   242,780     27.9%
2020:   308,718     31.6%  (65.9% of 2016 turnout)

COLLIN COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:   138,032     30.1%
2016:   209,114     39.0%  (69.1% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   202,385     34.9%
2020:   265,812     41.0%  (73.6% of 2016 turnout)

DENTON COUNTY (Dallas suburbs)
2012:   107,145     27.7%
2016:   157,651     33.9%  (64.9% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   154,629     31.1%
2020:   227,816     40.3%  (76.3% of 2016 turnout)

EL PASO COUNTY (El Paso)
2012:     60,645     15.8%
2016:   100,654     23.5%  (58.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     98,245     21.6%
2020:   126,788     26.0%  (59.2% of 2016 turnout)

FORT BEND COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:   108,659     32.0%
2016:   143,505     35.5%  (65.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   137,365     31.8%
2020:   165,223     34.3%  (63.1% of 2016 turnout)

HIDALGO COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:     67,965     22.3%
2016:     95,218     28.1%  (68.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     79,595     22.0%
2020:   107,749     27.5%  (62.1% of 2016 turnout)

WILLIAMSON COUNTY (Austin suburbs)
2012:     66,385     26.2%
2016:   112,568     37.5%  (69.0% of 2012 turnout)
2018:   115,508     34.6%
2020:   155,785     41.3%  (76.7% of 2016 turnout)

MONTGOMERY COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:     82,370     31.1%
2016:   104,503     33.5%  (60.4% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     96,473     28.9%
2020:   113,701     30.7%  (55.6% of 2016 turnout)

GALVESTON COUNTY (Houston suburbs)
2012:     56,025     30.2%
2016:     72,446     34.8%  (65.8% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     65,096     30.6%
2020:     83,773     36.7%  (68.2% of 2016 turnout)

CAMERON COUNTY (Rio Grande Valley)
2012:     26,144     14.5%
2016:     41,294     20.9%  (53.7% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     37,890     18.3%
2020:     57,123     26.1%  (62.0% of 2016 turnout)

NUECES COUNTY (Corpus Christi)
2012:     39,029     20.3%
2016:     48,267     24.2%  (50.2% of 2012 turnout)
2018:     46,724     22.8%
2020:     66,335     31.3%  (63.5% of 2016 turnout)

Lol, looks more like population change than true higher turnout % numbers.

Williamson and Denton counties would beg to differ. Also remember that there's an extra week of EV compared to 2016 and that more people voted by mail than 2016.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1318997603695034369

Clark firewall already at 61.5k, per Ralston.

In his blog (he's really good at getting numbers early and making analysis; it's definitely worth keeping up with) post Ralston mentions it was 72k (45k statewide) at the end of 2016 early voting.

Edit: I mixed up the statewide and Clark 2016 end of early voting leads. oops.

[mijan]

Nevada fooled the GOP agian lol

Could also be used for Iowa after people get their hopes up again over promising early vote returns there, lol

in 2012 D early vote lead was 68 k, 288 k D voted early.
in 2016 D early vote lead was 42 k, 267 k D voted early
in 2020 D early vote lead is 136 k,  already 324 k D voted early.
So, it is not fair comparison.  2020 is not 2016.