2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Non Swing Voter]

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dave.trotter#!/vizhome/2020FloridaElectionData/VoteComposition

Updated Florida numbers!

Dems 160k lead. 

Palm Beach breaks 100k
Broward at 73k
Hillsborough at 71k

Still basically nothing from Miami

Could be 200k lead by tommorow and 500k lead in a week at this rate

I think the key is going to be Miami.  If they can get Dems out there early that would be great.

[Gass3268]

The Reid/Culinary Machine has awaken in Nevada:

Since the SOS posted those numbers for September, the Democratic lead has expanded from 153,241 to 154,819 (as I write this because Clark updates every hour). So they are up almost 1,600 this month already. There’s something happening here, and what it is is very clear.

...

In Washoe, where the Dems had taken the lead before the pandemic, the GOP is maintaining a 1,000 vote lead as of Oct. 1. For perspective, the GOP led by 4,000 in Washoe when Donald Trump lost the county by a percentage point in 2016, the first sign that Dems would run well there statewide and a phenomenon confirmed by Gov. Steve Sisolak and Sen. Jacky Rosen winning there in 2018.

Source

[GP270watch]

 For Nevada definitely follow Ralston. He isn't blinded by partisanship like some of the state "experts" or reporters.

[Non Swing Voter]

Looks like Florida overtook Virginia as the state with the most votes in so far...

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1313262812383178753

[Gass3268]

49,716 new votes returned in Wisconsin since last Friday. About 46% of the ballots came from Dane and Milwaukee. Dane County is still leading the pack with the highest number of raw votes, highest % of registered voters, and highest % of 2016 voters. They will probably pass 100,000 votes with tomorrow's update and could pass Douglas County for the highest % of applications returned. Milwaukee is doing a much better job now returning votes. They are now in the top 15 of counties with % of 2016 votes returned and had the highest raw number of returns over the weekend. Let me know if there is anything else you'd like me to look into.

The places in NE WI that are requesting/returning at higher rates, are they from the cities (e.g., Green Bay, Menasha, etc.) or are the counties more or less balanced in how they're returning?

In 2018 and in the SC race, in counties like Eau Claire, the city was the one that overwhelmingly driving turnout, rather than the rurals, and that disparity was the warning sign for Republicans.

Unfortunately the only data we have is at the county level, I wish we could get the same level of data here as we get for registered voters.

Ugh, that's unfortunate. Thanks for being on top of this .

I think the example from Eau Claire that you are referring to came from the City of Eau Claire releasing the number themselves and then folks were able to subtract that from the county numbers.

Hope someone from the City of Eau Claire is reading this conversation so that they do the same this year.

The Wisconsin Election Commission added municipal data! They will update it every Monday. I'm looking into it right now. Here are some figures:

https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1313273227435749378?s=20

https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1313273934285099008?s=20

[Dr. Arch]

49,716 new votes returned in Wisconsin since last Friday. About 46% of the ballots came from Dane and Milwaukee. Dane County is still leading the pack with the highest number of raw votes, highest % of registered voters, and highest % of 2016 voters. They will probably pass 100,000 votes with tomorrow's update and could pass Douglas County for the highest % of applications returned. Milwaukee is doing a much better job now returning votes. They are now in the top 15 of counties with % of 2016 votes returned and had the highest raw number of returns over the weekend. Let me know if there is anything else you'd like me to look into.

The places in NE WI that are requesting/returning at higher rates, are they from the cities (e.g., Green Bay, Menasha, etc.) or are the counties more or less balanced in how they're returning?

In 2018 and in the SC race, in counties like Eau Claire, the city was the one that overwhelmingly driving turnout, rather than the rurals, and that disparity was the warning sign for Republicans.

Unfortunately the only data we have is at the county level, I wish we could get the same level of data here as we get for registered voters.

Ugh, that's unfortunate. Thanks for being on top of this .

I think the example from Eau Claire that you are referring to came from the City of Eau Claire releasing the number themselves and then folks were able to subtract that from the county numbers.

Hope someone from the City of Eau Claire is reading this conversation so that they do the same this year.

The Wisconsin Election Commission added municipal data! They will update it every Monday. I'm looking into it right now. Here are some figures:

https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1313273227435749378?s=20
https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1313273934285099008?s=20

Yeah, that looks disastrous for Trump.

[Gass3268]

This is interesting.

https://twitter.com/RealAPolitics/status/1313272337073143809?s=20

I disagree with Real American Politics thesis in his tweet as Biden is winning more Republicans than Trump wins Democrats and Biden is winning Independents anywhere between 12-22 points. Yet the modeled request/return ballots look a lot like the polling ID.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This is interesting.

https://twitter.com/RealAPolitics/status/1313272337073143809?s=20

I disagree with Real American Politics thesis in his tweet as Biden is winning more Republicans than Trump wins Democrats and Biden is winning Independents anywhere between 12-22 points.

Yeah, no. RAP is such a hack.

[Gass3268]

This is interesting.

https://twitter.com/RealAPolitics/status/1313272337073143809?s=20

I disagree with Real American Politics thesis in his tweet as Biden is winning more Republicans than Trump wins Democrats and Biden is winning Independents anywhere between 12-22 points.

Yeah, no. RAP is such a hack.

I mainly tweeted it to show the modeled ballots returned. I think the numbers look fine for Democrats.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

This is interesting.

https://twitter.com/RealAPolitics/status/1313272337073143809?s=20

I disagree with Real American Politics thesis in his tweet as Biden is winning more Republicans than Trump wins Democrats and Biden is winning Independents anywhere between 12-22 points.

Yeah, no. RAP is such a hack.

I mainly tweeted it to show the modeled ballots returned. I think the numbers look fine for Democrats.

Yeah, I agree. They're returning them at a higher rate, and like you said: Biden is winning more Reps than Trump is winning Dems... and polls have Biden up comfortably with independents.

RAP is just serving comfort food to twitter Republicans.

[Devout Centrist]

This is interesting.

https://twitter.com/RealAPolitics/status/1313272337073143809?s=20

I disagree with Real American Politics thesis in his tweet as Biden is winning more Republicans than Trump wins Democrats and Biden is winning Independents anywhere between 12-22 points. Yet the modeled request/return ballots look a lot like the polling ID.

Wisconsin doesn't use party registration, so I have no idea how he calculated those numbers.

This is his polling map for 2020:

JUNK IT

[Gass3268]

This is interesting.

https://twitter.com/RealAPolitics/status/1313272337073143809?s=20

I disagree with Real American Politics thesis in his tweet as Biden is winning more Republicans than Trump wins Democrats and Biden is winning Independents anywhere between 12-22 points. Yet the modeled request/return ballots look a lot like the polling ID.

Wisconsin doesn't use party registration, so I have no idea how he calculated those numbers.

This is his polling map for 2020:

JUNK IT

It's from NBC News via Target Smart (Tom Bonier).

[Bootes Void]

For Nevada definitely follow Ralston. He isn't blinded by partisanship like some of the state "experts" or reporters.

Actually Ralston is fairly liberal but he's generally fairly objective and fair and doesnt do dumb hot takes like cohn or wasserman or concern troll

[It’s so Joever]

How accurate is Target Smart modeling usually?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

How accurate is Target Smart modeling usually?

I mean, WI doesn't use party ID so idk how they got those numbers.

[Gass3268]

How accurate is Target Smart modeling usually?

I mean, WI doesn't use party ID so idk how they got those numbers.

Yeah I'm not sure, Wisconsin doesn't even report gender, race or age data.

[Devout Centrist]

I don't really trust Target Smart either tbh

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1313292361976500224

1 month from the election and almost 32% of Falls Church has voted!

[Non Swing Voter]

49,716 new votes returned in Wisconsin since last Friday. About 46% of the ballots came from Dane and Milwaukee. Dane County is still leading the pack with the highest number of raw votes, highest % of registered voters, and highest % of 2016 voters. They will probably pass 100,000 votes with tomorrow's update and could pass Douglas County for the highest % of applications returned. Milwaukee is doing a much better job now returning votes. They are now in the top 15 of counties with % of 2016 votes returned and had the highest raw number of returns over the weekend. Let me know if there is anything else you'd like me to look into.

The places in NE WI that are requesting/returning at higher rates, are they from the cities (e.g., Green Bay, Menasha, etc.) or are the counties more or less balanced in how they're returning?

In 2018 and in the SC race, in counties like Eau Claire, the city was the one that overwhelmingly driving turnout, rather than the rurals, and that disparity was the warning sign for Republicans.

Unfortunately the only data we have is at the county level, I wish we could get the same level of data here as we get for registered voters.

Ugh, that's unfortunate. Thanks for being on top of this .

I think the example from Eau Claire that you are referring to came from the City of Eau Claire releasing the number themselves and then folks were able to subtract that from the county numbers.

Hope someone from the City of Eau Claire is reading this conversation so that they do the same this year.

The Wisconsin Election Commission added municipal data! They will update it every Monday. I'm looking into it right now. Here are some figures:

https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1313273227435749378?s=20
https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1313273934285099008?s=20

Yeah, that looks disastrous for Trump.

howso?  Milwaukee looks a little light compared to the others. 

[Gass3268]

49,716 new votes returned in Wisconsin since last Friday. About 46% of the ballots came from Dane and Milwaukee. Dane County is still leading the pack with the highest number of raw votes, highest % of registered voters, and highest % of 2016 voters. They will probably pass 100,000 votes with tomorrow's update and could pass Douglas County for the highest % of applications returned. Milwaukee is doing a much better job now returning votes. They are now in the top 15 of counties with % of 2016 votes returned and had the highest raw number of returns over the weekend. Let me know if there is anything else you'd like me to look into.

The places in NE WI that are requesting/returning at higher rates, are they from the cities (e.g., Green Bay, Menasha, etc.) or are the counties more or less balanced in how they're returning?

In 2018 and in the SC race, in counties like Eau Claire, the city was the one that overwhelmingly driving turnout, rather than the rurals, and that disparity was the warning sign for Republicans.

Unfortunately the only data we have is at the county level, I wish we could get the same level of data here as we get for registered voters.

Ugh, that's unfortunate. Thanks for being on top of this .

I think the example from Eau Claire that you are referring to came from the City of Eau Claire releasing the number themselves and then folks were able to subtract that from the county numbers.

Hope someone from the City of Eau Claire is reading this conversation so that they do the same this year.

The Wisconsin Election Commission added municipal data! They will update it every Monday. I'm looking into it right now. Here are some figures:

https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1313273227435749378?s=20
https://twitter.com/jdjmke/status/1313273934285099008?s=20

Yeah, that looks disastrous for Trump.

howso?  Milwaukee looks a little light compared to the others. 

It's only 1.72 points below the county %, which was better than I thought it would be. They are still trying to recover from getting their ballots later than other places.

[kireev]

This is interesting.

https://twitter.com/RealAPolitics/status/1313272337073143809?s=20

I disagree with Real American Politics thesis in his tweet as Biden is winning more Republicans than Trump wins Democrats and Biden is winning Independents anywhere between 12-22 points. Yet the modeled request/return ballots look a lot like the polling ID.

There is no way these numbers are right just based on the geography of returned ballots.

[Gass3268]

This is interesting.

https://twitter.com/RealAPolitics/status/1313272337073143809?s=20

I disagree with Real American Politics thesis in his tweet as Biden is winning more Republicans than Trump wins Democrats and Biden is winning Independents anywhere between 12-22 points. Yet the modeled request/return ballots look a lot like the polling ID.

There is no way these numbers are right just based on the geography of returned ballots.

It's also about 110,000 votes behind the most recent data.

[Non Swing Voter]

I wonder if there will be any counties out there that report 100% returns before Election Day and effectively don't need to do anything on Election Day but count ballots.

[GP270watch]

I wonder if there will be any counties out there that report 100% returns before Election Day and effectively don't need to do anything on Election Day but count ballots.

 I doubt any sizable county will ever have this happen. Too many old people are set in their ways and will only vote on election day, you have people who are undecided, and procrastinators who will always wait until the last possible moment.

[Gass3268]

I wonder if there will be any counties out there that report 100% returns before Election Day and effectively don't need to do anything on Election Day but count ballots.

 I doubt any sizable county will ever have this happen. Too many old people are set in their ways and will only vote on election day, you have people who are undecided, and procrastinators who will always wait until the last possible moment.

Plus a number of voters of color, rightly, fear their vote won't be counted if they vote by mail. Look what's going on right now in Greensboro, North Carolina.