2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[Horus]

https://twitter.com/taniel/status/1312971195537649664?s=21

I called this out when it came to the KY DEM PRIM...

DEM ballots getting overwhelmingly tossed in the waste basket with shifts towards Vote-By-Mail.

Do we have concrete reasons to assume this is the product of deliberate manipulation? Isn't election administration in NC under Democratic control?

The alternative is that poorer, more Dem-friendly areas are also more likely to have systematic barriers to voting that increase the likelihood of rejection. Which is awful too, of course, but not as existentially terrifying.

According to Guilford County the ballots are sitting somewhere in limbo waiting on "further instructions" since rules regarding VBM have changed there quite recently. I still don't like it but they weren't just thrown away.

[Tender Branson]

102-year-old woman who cast her ballot in PPE says to would-be voters, 'Nobody should have an excuse'

Bea Lumpkin cast her first ballot in the 1940 presidential election.



https://abcnews.go.com/GMA/Living/102-year-woman-casts-mail-ballot-ppe-voters/story?id=73389675

FF.

[Buzz]

102-year-old woman who cast her ballot in PPE says to would-be voters, 'Nobody should have an excuse'

Bea Lumpkin cast her first ballot in the 1940 presidential election.



https://abcnews.go.com/GMA/Living/102-year-woman-casts-mail-ballot-ppe-voters/story?id=73389675

FF.

Awesome.

[Ferguson97]

Wow. When she was born, women were still 2 years away from getting the right to vote. Massive FF.

[Crumpets]

Wow. When she was born, women were still 2 years away from getting the right to vote. Massive FF.

When she was born, it was probably also a good time to wear PPE while voting.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Wow. When she was born, women were still 2 years away from getting the right to vote. Massive FF.

I grew up near my great-grandmother.  She was born in 1889 and vividly remembered women getting the right to vote.

[redjohn]

48.9% of Dane county's absentee ballots have been returned; 30% of 2016's total turnout in a county that will be among Biden's best performance in the state.

[Bootes Void]

48.9% of Dane county's absentee ballots have been returned; 30% of 2016's total turnout in a county that will be among Biden's best performance in the state.

is there early in person voting in Wisconsin. I could easily see it surpass 100% turnout of 2016 before election day at this rate.

[redjohn]

48.9% of Dane county's absentee ballots have been returned; 30% of 2016's total turnout in a county that will be among Biden's best performance in the state.

is there early in person voting in Wisconsin. I could easily see it surpass 100% turnout of 2016 before election day at this rate.

Yep, it starts on 10/20. Turnout will easily eclipse 2016 in dozens of counties across the state, I'm sure.

[Gass3268]

49,716 new votes returned in Wisconsin since last Friday. About 46% of the ballots came from Dane and Milwaukee. Dane County is still leading the pack with the highest number of raw votes, highest % of registered voters, and highest % of 2016 voters. They will probably pass 100,000 votes with tomorrow's update and could pass Douglas County for the highest % of applications returned. Milwaukee is doing a much better job now returning votes. They are now in the top 15 of counties with % of 2016 votes returned and had the highest raw number of returns over the weekend. Let me know if there is anything else you'd like me to look into.

[Dr. Arch]

49,716 new votes returned in Wisconsin since last Friday. About 46% of the ballots came from Dane and Milwaukee. Dane County is still leading the pack with the highest number of raw votes, highest % of registered voters, and highest % of 2016 voters. They will probably pass 100,000 votes with tomorrow's update and could pass Douglas County for the highest % of applications returned. Milwaukee is doing a much better job now returning votes. They are now in the top 15 of counties with % of 2016 votes returned and had the highest raw number of returns over the weekend. Let me know if there is anything else you'd like me to look into.

The places in NE WI that are requesting/returning at higher rates, are they from the cities (e.g., Green Bay, Menasha, etc.) or are the counties more or less balanced in how they're returning?

In 2018 and in the SC race, in counties like Eau Claire, the city was the one that overwhelmingly driving turnout, rather than the rurals, and that disparity was the warning sign for Republicans.

[wbrocks67]

48.9% of Dane county's absentee ballots have been returned; 30% of 2016's total turnout in a county that will be among Biden's best performance in the state.

But the "Enthusiasm Gap"...

[MR DARK BRANDON]

49,716 new votes returned in Wisconsin since last Friday. About 46% of the ballots came from Dane and Milwaukee. Dane County is still leading the pack with the highest number of raw votes, highest % of registered voters, and highest % of 2016 voters. They will probably pass 100,000 votes with tomorrow's update and could pass Douglas County for the highest % of applications returned. Milwaukee is doing a much better job now returning votes. They are now in the top 15 of counties with % of 2016 votes returned and had the highest raw number of returns over the weekend. Let me know if there is anything else you'd like me to look into.

But muh soda poll

[Gass3268]

49,716 new votes returned in Wisconsin since last Friday. About 46% of the ballots came from Dane and Milwaukee. Dane County is still leading the pack with the highest number of raw votes, highest % of registered voters, and highest % of 2016 voters. They will probably pass 100,000 votes with tomorrow's update and could pass Douglas County for the highest % of applications returned. Milwaukee is doing a much better job now returning votes. They are now in the top 15 of counties with % of 2016 votes returned and had the highest raw number of returns over the weekend. Let me know if there is anything else you'd like me to look into.

The places in NE WI that are requesting/returning at higher rates, are they from the cities (e.g., Green Bay, Menasha, etc.) or are the counties more or less balanced in how they're returning?

In 2018 and in the SC race, in counties like Eau Claire, the city was the one that overwhelmingly driving turnout, rather than the rurals, and that disparity was the warning sign for Republicans.

Unfortunately the only data we have is at the county level, I wish we could get the same level of data here as we get for registered voters.

[Dr. Arch]

49,716 new votes returned in Wisconsin since last Friday. About 46% of the ballots came from Dane and Milwaukee. Dane County is still leading the pack with the highest number of raw votes, highest % of registered voters, and highest % of 2016 voters. They will probably pass 100,000 votes with tomorrow's update and could pass Douglas County for the highest % of applications returned. Milwaukee is doing a much better job now returning votes. They are now in the top 15 of counties with % of 2016 votes returned and had the highest raw number of returns over the weekend. Let me know if there is anything else you'd like me to look into.

The places in NE WI that are requesting/returning at higher rates, are they from the cities (e.g., Green Bay, Menasha, etc.) or are the counties more or less balanced in how they're returning?

In 2018 and in the SC race, in counties like Eau Claire, the city was the one that overwhelmingly driving turnout, rather than the rurals, and that disparity was the warning sign for Republicans.

Unfortunately the only data we have is at the county level, I wish we could get the same level of data here as we get for registered voters.

Ugh, that's unfortunate. Thanks for being on top of this .

[Gass3268]

49,716 new votes returned in Wisconsin since last Friday. About 46% of the ballots came from Dane and Milwaukee. Dane County is still leading the pack with the highest number of raw votes, highest % of registered voters, and highest % of 2016 voters. They will probably pass 100,000 votes with tomorrow's update and could pass Douglas County for the highest % of applications returned. Milwaukee is doing a much better job now returning votes. They are now in the top 15 of counties with % of 2016 votes returned and had the highest raw number of returns over the weekend. Let me know if there is anything else you'd like me to look into.

The places in NE WI that are requesting/returning at higher rates, are they from the cities (e.g., Green Bay, Menasha, etc.) or are the counties more or less balanced in how they're returning?

In 2018 and in the SC race, in counties like Eau Claire, the city was the one that overwhelmingly driving turnout, rather than the rurals, and that disparity was the warning sign for Republicans.

Unfortunately the only data we have is at the county level, I wish we could get the same level of data here as we get for registered voters.

Ugh, that's unfortunate. Thanks for being on top of this .

I think the example from Eau Claire that you are referring to came from the City of Eau Claire releasing the number themselves and then folks were able to subtract that from the county numbers.

[Dr. Arch]

49,716 new votes returned in Wisconsin since last Friday. About 46% of the ballots came from Dane and Milwaukee. Dane County is still leading the pack with the highest number of raw votes, highest % of registered voters, and highest % of 2016 voters. They will probably pass 100,000 votes with tomorrow's update and could pass Douglas County for the highest % of applications returned. Milwaukee is doing a much better job now returning votes. They are now in the top 15 of counties with % of 2016 votes returned and had the highest raw number of returns over the weekend. Let me know if there is anything else you'd like me to look into.

The places in NE WI that are requesting/returning at higher rates, are they from the cities (e.g., Green Bay, Menasha, etc.) or are the counties more or less balanced in how they're returning?

In 2018 and in the SC race, in counties like Eau Claire, the city was the one that overwhelmingly driving turnout, rather than the rurals, and that disparity was the warning sign for Republicans.

Unfortunately the only data we have is at the county level, I wish we could get the same level of data here as we get for registered voters.

Ugh, that's unfortunate. Thanks for being on top of this .

I think the example from Eau Claire that you are referring to came from the City of Eau Claire releasing the number themselves and then folks were able to subtract that from the county numbers.

Hope someone from the City of Eau Claire is reading this conversation so that they do the same this year.

[Non Swing Voter]

Lots of new numbers today.  Up to 3.8 million votes.

Looks like Wayne, MI is up over 50,000.  Good sign for Biden?

[republican1993]

Lots of new numbers today.  Up to 3.8 million votes.

Looks like Wayne, MI is up over 50,000.  Good sign for Biden?

I think that's good so far, are we expecting heavy in person voting on election day in wayne or banking early voting here? Dems prob need to bank at least 300k votes to get on track to do well in Wayne!

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/lilcerberus/status/1313155012546252800

[Non Swing Voter]

Lots of new numbers today.  Up to 3.8 million votes.

Looks like Wayne, MI is up over 50,000.  Good sign for Biden?

I think that's good so far, are we expecting heavy in person voting on election day in wayne or banking early voting here? Dems prob need to bank at least 300k votes to get on track to do well in Wayne!

No clue, I would think that Detroit would be more of an in person vote place than absentee but who knows.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/lilcerberus/status/1313155012546252800

Sounds like rural Trump people went to the closest area that's heavily Dem.  Of course Trump will use this incident, probably his own criminal supporters, as proof that mail in voting cost him Virginia.

[republican1993]

https://twitter.com/lilcerberus/status/1313155012546252800

ready for the trump retweet on this.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dave.trotter#!/vizhome/2020FloridaElectionData/VoteComposition

Updated Florida numbers!

Dems 160k lead. 

Palm Beach breaks 100k
Broward at 73k
Hillsborough at 71k

Still basically nothing from Miami

[Bootes Void]

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dave.trotter#!/vizhome/2020FloridaElectionData/VoteComposition

Updated Florida numbers!

Dems 160k lead. 

Palm Beach breaks 100k
Broward at 73k
Hillsborough at 71k

Still basically nothing from Miami

Could be 200k lead by tommorow and 500k lead in a week at this rate