PA Monmouth - Biden +4

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I think we have now seen a decent amount of evidence that Pennsylvania will vote to the right of Wisconsin this year, which would have very much surprised most people six ago.

[wbrocks67]

I'm confused as to how Biden loses support in Low *OR* high turnout? High turnout in 2018 seemed to benefit the Dems.

[Skill and Chance]

I think we have now seen a decent amount of evidence that Pennsylvania will vote to the right of Wisconsin this year, which would have very much surprised most people six ago.

And quite possibly right of Florida.  That would have been considered crazy a year ago. 

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I'm confused as to how Biden loses support in Low *OR* high turnout? High turnout in 2018 seemed to benefit the Dems.

The "high turnout among likely voters" model is still lower turnout than a sample of all registered voters.

[Gracile]

Biden +1
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1301178432274006022?s=19

Elections in the Trump era have for the most part seen absurdly high turnout rates than in previous years (including in Pennsylvania). I don't think it's wise to expect this election to have unusually low turnout - especially with vote-by-mail becoming more common.

[Gracile]

I think we have now seen a decent amount of evidence that Pennsylvania will vote to the right of Wisconsin this year, which would have very much surprised most people six ago.

That still remains to be seen. Based on the fundamentals, it would be unlikely that Wisconsin would vote to the left of Pennsylvania. Not to mention we haven't gotten much quality post-convention polling out of here + Wisconsin has the demographics of a place where polling would underestimate Republican support.

[SnowLabrador]

The race is tightening. As of right now, I think Trump narrowly wins PA.

[wbrocks67]

The race is tightening. As of right now, I think Trump narrowly wins PA.

There have been no polls that suggest this. All year long.

[WD]

The race is tightening. As of right now, I think Trump narrowly wins PA.

Biden is literally leading and at 49% in the poll. Not to mention this was taking right after the convention, during the peak of his bump. That says a lot more about Trump’s chances then it does about Biden’s.

[CellarDoor]

The race is tightening. As of right now, I think Trump narrowly wins PA.

Biden is literally leading and at 49% in the poll. Not to mention this was taking right after the convention, during the peak of his bump. That says a lot more about Trump’s chances then it does about Biden’s.

Agreed. And the crosstabs show Biden has a lot more room to grow than Trump.

[wbrocks67]

The race is tightening. As of right now, I think Trump narrowly wins PA.

Biden is literally leading and at 49% in the poll. Not to mention this was taking right after the convention, during the peak of his bump. That says a lot more about Trump’s chances then it does about Biden’s.

Agreed. And the crosstabs show Biden has a lot more room to grow than Trump.

Exactly - like I said, what sticks out to me between their July and August poll is that Women and 50+ year olds were consistent. So that means that those #s are likely pretty correct. What went down was groups that traditionally would go for Biden, so if you average those two out from both polls you probably end at about Biden +7/8, which is what we've seen from a bunch of PA polls this year.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I think we have now seen a decent amount of evidence that Pennsylvania will vote to the right of Wisconsin this year, which would have very much surprised most people six ago.

That still remains to be seen. Based on the fundamentals, it would be unlikely that Wisconsin would vote to the left of Pennsylvania. Not to mention we haven't gotten much quality post-convention polling out of here + Wisconsin has the demographics of a place where polling would underestimate Republican support.

What fundamentals are you talking about?  WI and PA voted with a point of each other in 2016, and WI voted a few points left of PA in both 2012 and 2008.  There is a sort of conventional wisdom that WI is more likely to vote Republican, but I don't really think it's backed up by data.

[Horus]

That looks exactly right.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Hmmm... is EV by CD just a statute that could potentially be repealed by the one party governments in NE and ME, or is it in the state constitutions?  SCOTUS historically has a rule against altering election procedures too close to an election.  Would they strike down an attempt by either state to repeal it in October?  Could it even be repealed in late November/December and apply retroactively to this election?  Asking for John Roberts.

The electoral vote split in both ME and NE is statutory rather than part of the state constitution, so in theory I suppose the state legislature could change it at any time.  But they aren't going to do that now, especially when the legislature isn't even in session.

[WD]

3 pages in less than 2 hours. Never change, Atlas.

[Sbane]

There was always going to be some tightening, but Biden is in a better position to win Pennsylvania compared to Wisconsin or Michigan, imo.

[Tender Branson]

The recent swing state polls aren't in line with national figures.

Either the national lead for Biden is heavily inflated, or he's running up the score in DEM states and cutting the margins from 2016 in heavily Trump states.

Or the swing state polls are off.

[MT Treasurer]

The recent swing state polls aren't in line with national figures.

Either the national lead for Biden is heavily inflated, or he's running up the score in DEM states and cutting the margins from 2016 in heavily Trump states.

Or the swing state polls are off.

Like clockwork:

PA was three points more Republican than the "nation as a whole" in 2016. It makes sense that a slight R trend (likely) would result in it being 4 points more R this time, so +4 in PA is absolutely in line with a +8 Biden lead nationally. If this is a bad poll for Biden, I don’t want to know what a bad poll for Trump looks like.

This is so obvious it shouldn’t even have to be pointed out. The same is true for MI, obviously (+4 makes perfect sense given the national average). And Biden is running up the score in states like CA and keeping TX very close.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The recent swing state polls aren't in line with national figures.

Either the national lead for Biden is heavily inflated, or he's running up the score in DEM states and cutting the margins from 2016 in heavily Trump states.

Or the swing state polls are off.

They only don't line up if you are only picking the GOP-friendly state polls to focus on.

I posted this in the Morning Consult poll thread yesterday.  They did 11 swing state polls that collectively line up with a national Biden lead of 9 points. (And they also had Biden ahead by 4 in PA.)

Here are Biden's approximate gains over Clinton in each state:
AZ: 13.5
CO: 5
FL: 3
GA: 8
MI: 10
MN: 5.5
NC: 5.5
OH: 3
PA: 4.5
TX: 8
WI: 10

This is an average gain of 7 points over Clinton (equally weighting each state), consistent with a national Biden lead of 9 points.  

So while individual states may be off just due to sampling error, on the whole these look plausible and indicative of a race that is pretty much unchanged by the conventions.

[Tekken_Guy]

One thing I noticed is that only 40% of the sample is college educated. 48% of the 2016 electorate was, according to exit polls.

[wbrocks67]

One thing I noticed is that only 40% of the sample is college educated. 48% of the 2016 electorate was, according to exit polls.

It's also 82% white, which is a bit more than even 2016.

A lot of signs point to this poll being junky, if anything just because of its small sample size.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Undecideds lean young, female, people of color, and live in swing/Clinton counties.

Yeah, they actually have a favorability section on both candidates. Based on that (and approval does correlate strongly with results), I think Trump is again at his ceiling, just like in the PPP Michigan Poll.

[HisGrace]

I don't really get why everyone is freaking out so much. Aside from conventions creating some movement, it's not uncommon for the race to start breaking one way in October, when most people start tuning in. Polls right after the conventions, which have long produced some benefits for each candidate, should not drive people insane.

Look at Obama's numbers in August/September 2008:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/pa/pennsylvania_mccain_vs_obama-244.html

Note that the recession didn't just start in the fall either, it was ongoing well before that.

It's been a very stable race for many months, and the fundamentals are definitely not on Trump's side. Maybe if Biden is still teetering on the edge in mid-October, it would be time to panic, but now? I mean... no.

People remember the 08 campaign as just a coronation for Obama but he was trailing in national polls as late as mid September before pulling away. Political junkies just get too worked up about early polls.

[Red Wall]

The recent swing state polls aren't in line with national figures.

Either the national lead for Biden is heavily inflated, or he's running up the score in DEM states and cutting the margins from 2016 in heavily Trump states.

Or the swing state polls are off.

The DNC ratings say he's running up the score in dem states. RNC had lower ratings but better ratings in swingy markets like Pittsburgh.

[Red Wall]

The biggest election night shocker will be pundits discovering the once called Bidenland is Trumpland. Lackawanna will be carried by Trump.