PA Monmouth - Biden +4

[Granite City]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1301173054077366272?s=20

[Astatine]

#DemsInDisarray

[wbrocks67]

Yep, knew that was coming. B/c it totally would go from Biden +13 to Biden +4 in just 2 months!

[Buzz]

Probably spot on.  The +13 poll a while back was junk.  Lean D but winnable for Trump.

[Rand]

#ScrantonJoe

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_PA_090220/

August 28-31, 2020
400 registered voters (400 voters accounted for in each likely voter model)
MoE: 4.9%

Changes with July 9-13 poll.

Among registered voters:
Biden 49% (-4%)
Trump 45% (+5%)
Other 2% (2% Jorgensen, <1% Hawkins) (-1%)
Other candidate 0% (-3%)
No one 1% (was previously <1%)
Undecided 4% (n/c)

Among likely voters (model w/ higher turnout than 2016):
Biden  49% (-3%)
Trump 46% (+4%)
Other 2% (-1%)
Undecided 3% (n/c)

Among likely voters (model w/ lower turnout than 2016):
Biden 48% (-3%)
Trump 47% (+3%)
Other 2% (n/c)
Undecided 3% (n/c)

[Woody]

Biden is continuing to underperform in Pennsylvania.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

This isn't good for Biden.

[wbrocks67]

I mean, really?

Biden maintains a solid 59% to 35% lead among women (similar to 60% to 34% in July), but he has lost ground among men. They prefer Trump by 56% to 37%, compared with a much closer 47% to 45% margin in July. Biden is holding onto his edge among voters aged 65 and older (53% to 42% now and 52% to 42% in July), while Trump has the advantage among voters 50 to 64 years old (54% to 45% now and 56% to 43% in July). Biden maintains a lead among voters under age 50 (49% to 40%), but it is not as sizable as it was just over six weeks ago (60% to 29%)

IDK which poll was right and which was wrong, but these swings are ridiculous. Was Biden really down 2 with Men before and is he really down "19* now? Meanwhile, <50 year olds were +31 Biden and now they are... +9?

All i know though is that if Biden is winning Seniors in *Pennsylvania* by 10%+, then Trump cannot win the state.

[Gass3268]

Undecideds lean young, female, people of color, and live in swing/Clinton counties.

[Pollster]

Usual Monmouth caveat of a very small sample and high margin of error.

I urge this board not to overreact - Biden 49/45 and Biden 53/40 are essentially the same result when your margin of error is 5%.

Excellent methodology (which Monmouth has) doesn't defy this.

[VAR]

July sample:

35% Republican
29% Independent
35% Democrat

August sample:
32% Republican
30% Independent
38% Democrat

[Arizona Iced Tea]

It seems like the polls are tightening/ moving towards Trump's favor in the swing states, but not nationally.

[Pollster]

Biden maintains a solid 59% to 35% lead among women (similar to 60% to 34% in July), but he has lost ground among men. They prefer Trump by 56% to 37%, compared with a much closer 47% to 45% margin in July. Biden is holding onto his edge among voters aged 65 and older (53% to 42% now and 52% to 42% in July), while Trump has the advantage among voters 50 to 64 years old (54% to 45% now and 56% to 43% in July). Biden maintains a lead among voters under age 50 (49% to 40%), but it is not as sizable as it was just over six weeks ago (60% to 29%)

IDK which poll was right and which was wrong, but these swings are ridiculous. Was Biden really down 2 with Men before and is he really down "19* now? Meanwhile, <50 year olds were +31 Biden and now they are... +9?

All i know though is that if Biden is winning Seniors in *Pennsylvania* by 10%+, then Trump cannot win the state.

This is what happens when your sample size is too small to produce reliable subsamples without oversampling.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I hate it here.

[wbrocks67]

Yeah this is total garbage.

Trump has increased his support in ten counties where the vote margins were closest in the 2016 presidential election. In these swing counties*, which are concentrated in a swath that runs from the Philadelphia suburbs into the northeast region of the commonwealth, the race stands at 46% for Trump and 44% for Biden. Just over six weeks ago, Biden had a sizable 54% to 35% lead among voters in this key county grouping.

Swing counties going from Biden +19 to Trump +2 is ridiculous.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1301175375591026689

[libertpaulian]

Only 400 people polled?  In a state like Pennsylvania?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Only 400 people polled?  In a state like Pennsylvania?

Welcome to Monmouth. They thought 250 was enough for a primary poll.

[ON Progressive]

Usual Monmouth caveat of a very small sample and high margin of error.

I urge this board not to overreact - Biden 49/45 and Biden 53/40 are essentially the same result when your margin of error is 5%.

Excellent methodology (which Monmouth has) doesn't defy this.

Good luck with that one.

[Skill and Chance]

Biden is continuing to underperform in Pennsylvania.

Yeah, starting to think PA isn't EV #270 for Biden.  Could be FL or AZ (NE-02 becomes essential to Biden in the win AZ, lose PA and FL scenario, but we don't have enough data to know where that falls).

[neostassenite31]

The two LV turnout models have the race even closer at Biden+3 and Biden+1  

[Skill and Chance]

Consistent with a Biden +7-8 lead nationally. I expect most of the trends from 2012 -> 2016/2018 + the urban/suburban vs. rural/small-town divide to intensify in this election.

I thought you expected PA to trend toward Biden relative to the PV?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Biden doesn't need PA to win. He will be OK.

[Gass3268]

Funny how this poll didn't effect the 538 % at all.