NYC Mayor/2021 Megathread

[Real Texan Politics]

Adams makes a similar comment and doesn't get as much backlash as Yang.
https://twitter.com/ericadamsfornyc/status/1391922818032574464?s=20
Probably a bad comparison though since Yang has more name-recognition (especially nationwide), but really makes you think.

But yea, Yang unfortunately shot himself in the foot with that tweet and will probably not get the nomination partially because of it, even if he makes gains with Jewish voters, but as said previously, at the expense of the progressive voters. Sad but true.

Also has AOC made an endorsement yet? Because if she hasn't then I imagine we can cross Yang off the list of possible candidates she'd endorse.

On the plus side though for Yang supporters, there's still over a month left before the primaries, so maybe there'll be enough time for Yang to make up some of his lost ground. With that said though, time is running out.

[Pyro]

https://twitter.com/AndrewYang/status/1391897869137887234

May help him with the Jewish vote at the expense of the pro-Palestine leftist voters who probably wouldn't have voted for him anyways because he's "muh closet republican" and has gotten support from Trump voters (including the Naked Cowboy street performer might I add).

Jewish voters do not vote as a bloc based on a candidate's rigidity on the Israel issue.
This tweet won't change any minds, other than Palestinian Americans' who may feel alienated.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/AndrewYang/status/1391897869137887234

May help him with the Jewish vote at the expense of the pro-Palestine leftist voters who probably wouldn't have voted for him anyways because he's "muh closet republican" and has gotten support from Trump voters (including the Naked Cowboy street performer might I add).

Jewish voters do not vote as a bloc based on a candidate's rigidity on the Israel issue.
This tweet won't change any minds, other than Palestinian Americans' who may feel alienated.

Yes, but the Brooklyn Orthodox do vote as a block depending upon community endorsements, and Yang's campaign has decided to reinforce the loyalty of the rabbis.

[warandwar]

Yang is going to have the near unanimous block vote of Asians and Orthodox Jews (see Tweet above). Not sure a couple of newspaper endorsements are going to be able to stop him.

This is not clear at all re: Asians. Polling has not shown a unanimity. He has the support of major figures in the Fujianese and Taiwanese communities, and some backing in the Korean community as well. None of that in the Bangladeshi or Nepalese communities.
I agree with Bronz - Adams has a solid shot.

Scoop: Dianne Morales's campaign does not use VAN for some reason lol

What about non-Chinatown Chinese, Filipinos, Indians, Vietnamese, etc? I doubt any of them vote nearly as much as a bloc as the communities you listed, but the impression I've gotten from other posters is that those groups are also leaning towards Yang due to being younger and more likely to be 1.5+ gen transplants. I really can't see Millennial transplants as a whole preferring Adams to Yang in a 2-way matchup.

Don't have any skin in the game, and I don't think Adams would be that bad. But I generally prefer more socially liberal and culturally cosmopolitan candidates, and Adams reminds me of the things I didn't like about Biden.

I don't think the Viet community (mostly up in the Bronx, pretty poor) really fits in with your description.
None of these communities vote as a bloc (friends of mine have put out a massive AAPIAgainstYang letter), but institutional support does carry weight with primary voters (remember this election is going to have like 30% turnout max).

[Badger]

Eric Adams would be a disaster mayor and the republicans best hope at winning in four years if he wins and is t primaried

Explain.....

I’ve said this a few times before but he’s just toxic, he defends abusers, anti-semites and picks racist fights for no reason (Herman Badillo), his policies are wack (like the aforementioned 300 students debacle). Honest to god I dislike Bloomberg, Schultz as much as any democrat but if Bloomberg ran against Adams I’d probably vote for them

dude straight up went from supporting farrakhan to supporting gingrich within a year

Adams just lost a lot of my support with this revelation.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Eric Adams would be a disaster mayor and the republicans best hope at winning in four years if he wins and is t primaried

Explain.....

I’ve said this a few times before but he’s just toxic, he defends abusers, anti-semites and picks racist fights for no reason (Herman Badillo), his policies are wack (like the aforementioned 300 students debacle). Honest to god I dislike Bloomberg, Schultz as much as any democrat but if Bloomberg ran against Adams I’d probably vote for them

dude straight up went from supporting farrakhan to supporting gingrich within a year

Adams just lost a lot of my support with this revelation.

As of now, who would you rather be elected mayor, Yang or Adams?

[Pyro]

https://twitter.com/AndrewYang/status/1391897869137887234

May help him with the Jewish vote at the expense of the pro-Palestine leftist voters who probably wouldn't have voted for him anyways because he's "muh closet republican" and has gotten support from Trump voters (including the Naked Cowboy street performer might I add).

Jewish voters do not vote as a bloc based on a candidate's rigidity on the Israel issue.
This tweet won't change any minds, other than Palestinian Americans' who may feel alienated.

Yes, but the Brooklyn Orthodox do vote as a block depending upon community endorsements, and Yang's campaign has decided to reinforce the loyalty of the rabbis.

Heredi and Hasidic communities like Borough Park are representative of around a third of the Jewish population in New York City. Anyone referring to the "Jewish vote" in New York should be aware of and specify that, otherwise you are erasing those of us who may not hold similar views.

[支持核绿派 (Greens4Nuclear)]

Yang is going to have the near unanimous block vote of Asians and Orthodox Jews (see Tweet above). Not sure a couple of newspaper endorsements are going to be able to stop him.

This is not clear at all re: Asians. Polling has not shown a unanimity. He has the support of major figures in the Fujianese and Taiwanese communities, and some backing in the Korean community as well. None of that in the Bangladeshi or Nepalese communities.
I agree with Bronz - Adams has a solid shot.

Scoop: Dianne Morales's campaign does not use VAN for some reason lol

What about non-Chinatown Chinese, Filipinos, Indians, Vietnamese, etc? I doubt any of them vote nearly as much as a bloc as the communities you listed, but the impression I've gotten from other posters is that those groups are also leaning towards Yang due to being younger and more likely to be 1.5+ gen transplants. I really can't see Millennial transplants as a whole preferring Adams to Yang in a 2-way matchup.

I don't have any skin in the game, and I don't think Adams would be that bad either. But I generally prefer more socially liberal and culturally cosmopolitan candidates, and Adams reminds me of the things I didn't like about Biden.

I don't think the Viet community (mostly up in the Bronx, pretty poor) really fits in with your description.
None of these communities vote as a bloc (friends of mine have put out a massive AAPIAgainstYang letter), but institutional support does carry weight with primary voters (remember this election is going to have like 30% turnout max).

I would know, I posted a link to that letter in this thread and encouraged everyone to read it.

I guess the transplant Asian types I had in mind would be more likely to be in more diverse parts Brooklyn and Queens.

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Viet restaurant in Brooklyn

Filipino restaurant in Manhattan

Khmer "bodega" (lmao) in the Bronx

[warandwar]

https://twitter.com/AndrewYang/status/1391897869137887234

May help him with the Jewish vote at the expense of the pro-Palestine leftist voters who probably wouldn't have voted for him anyways because he's "muh closet republican" and has gotten support from Trump voters (including the Naked Cowboy street performer might I add).

Jewish voters do not vote as a bloc based on a candidate's rigidity on the Israel issue.
This tweet won't change any minds, other than Palestinian Americans' who may feel alienated.

Yes, but the Brooklyn Orthodox do vote as a block depending upon community endorsements, and Yang's campaign has decided to reinforce the loyalty of the rabbis.

1) There are major Orthodox communities in Far Rock and Kew Gardens, not just Brooklyn.
2) They don't vote "as a block" - there are different communities, with different political goals, and they are not unanimous. Any cursory look at precinct data will show that. (They do all really love Trump, tho). The "block" voting is a myth.
3) Yang doesn't have the Orthodox vote stiched up. Adams has some deep ties here - especially with the Crown Heights Chabad community. He has his liasons and his backers within the community and they will certainly carry some support.
4) Depending on the community, the Israel sh**t may not matter at all. Satmars don't give a sh**t, for example (they believe zionism goes against g-d). Yeshivas are more important.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Yang is still dominating the polls, I expect him to win by a larger than expected margin.

Not anymore.

this is probably going to boost his support if anything

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

idk why I found this so hilarious

[LabourJersey]

The NY Post endorsing Adams, a moderate Black Democrat shows that the NYC GOP is a joke. Curtis Sliwa will probably win SI, and barely, probably....in November.....

The fact that Bronz is the only person who has ever posted or mentioned the Republican candidates for Mayor this year is a pretty good explanation for why the Post endorsed a Dem.

the GOP are not even trying, unlike in 2013 when they at least attempted to run a campaign with Lhota

[KaiserDave]

Getting ahead of the curve here, but this whole Yang tweet "controversy" is meaningless.

Won't have any real impact on the election other than hardening coalitions which already exist.

[KaiserDave]

Frontrunners
Andrew Yang, Eric Adams
Competitors
Ray McGuire, Diane Morales, Maya Wiley, Scott Stringer
Periphery of Competition
Kathryn Garcia, Shaun Donovan

Maybe I'm giving Morales too much credit, but the latest numbers have her in third. Who knows. Her campaign is still a terminally online inevitable loser though.

[Real Texan Politics]

The NY Post endorsing Adams, a moderate Black Democrat shows that the NYC GOP is a joke. Curtis Sliwa will probably win SI, and barely, probably....in November.....

The fact that Bronz is the only person who has ever posted or mentioned the Republican candidates for Mayor this year is a pretty good explanation for why the Post endorsed a Dem.

the GOP are not even trying, unlike in 2013 when they at least attempted to run a campaign with Lhota

I’m actually surprised they didn’t endorse Yang, or maybe I’m barely paying any attention to Eric Adams’ campaign and he’s more right wing than I thought?

[KaiserDave]

The NY Post endorsing Adams, a moderate Black Democrat shows that the NYC GOP is a joke. Curtis Sliwa will probably win SI, and barely, probably....in November.....

The fact that Bronz is the only person who has ever posted or mentioned the Republican candidates for Mayor this year is a pretty good explanation for why the Post endorsed a Dem.

the GOP are not even trying, unlike in 2013 when they at least attempted to run a campaign with Lhota

I’m actually surprised they didn’t endorse Yang, or maybe I’m barely paying any attention to Eric Adams’ campaign and he’s more right wing than I thought?

Eric Adams brand of the NYC Democratic right is much more in tune with the New York Post than Yang's.

[LabourJersey]

The NY Post endorsing Adams, a moderate Black Democrat shows that the NYC GOP is a joke. Curtis Sliwa will probably win SI, and barely, probably....in November.....

The fact that Bronz is the only person who has ever posted or mentioned the Republican candidates for Mayor this year is a pretty good explanation for why the Post endorsed a Dem.

the GOP are not even trying, unlike in 2013 when they at least attempted to run a campaign with Lhota

I’m actually surprised they didn’t endorse Yang, or maybe I’m barely paying any attention to Eric Adams’ campaign and he’s more right wing than I thought?

Eric Adams brand of the NYC Democratic right is much more in tune with the New York Post than Yang's.

Also Adams is much more of a known/stable quantity. Yang is very technocratic with some impulses that the left doesn't like, but it's not impossible that he may be a more conventionally progressive mayor than he seems depending on who he surrounds himself with at Gracie Mansion

[Tintrlvr]

https://twitter.com/AndrewYang/status/1391897869137887234

May help him with the Jewish vote at the expense of the pro-Palestine leftist voters who probably wouldn't have voted for him anyways because he's "muh closet republican" and has gotten support from Trump voters (including the Naked Cowboy street performer might I add).

Jewish voters do not vote as a bloc based on a candidate's rigidity on the Israel issue.
This tweet won't change any minds, other than Palestinian Americans' who may feel alienated.

Yes, but the Brooklyn Orthodox do vote as a block depending upon community endorsements, and Yang's campaign has decided to reinforce the loyalty of the rabbis.

1) There are major Orthodox communities in Far Rock and Kew Gardens, not just Brooklyn.
2) They don't vote "as a block" - there are different communities, with different political goals, and they are not unanimous. Any cursory look at precinct data will show that. (They do all really love Trump, tho). The "block" voting is a myth.
3) Yang doesn't have the Orthodox vote stiched up. Adams has some deep ties here - especially with the Crown Heights Chabad community. He has his liasons and his backers within the community and they will certainly carry some support.
4) Depending on the community, the Israel sh**t may not matter at all. Satmars don't give a sh**t, for example (they believe zionism goes against g-d). Yeshivas are more important.

Block voting is not a myth. The misunderstanding may be a presumption that all ultra-Orthodox Jews vote as a single block. That is certainly not true. However, they do tend to vote in just a handful of blocks, with each block controlled by a single rabbi or small group of rabbis. This is why you can see absolutely astoundingly huge swings in heavily ultra-Orthodox precincts (as I recall, there was a precinct with a 190% swing from 2016 to 2020 - i.e., nearly uniformly Clinton to nearly uniformly Trump). But on a precinct basis you may have overlapping blocks that don't all vote the same way in every election. For example, the South Williamsburg Hasidim are well known for being divided into two competing rabbinical communities, and it's not uncommon for them to back different candidates, especially in primaries but also sometimes in general elections. There may be instances where Yang wins the larger group and Adams the smaller, or vice versa, or some combination of other candidates, and there may be others where all blocks present in a particular precinct back the same candidate and give them over 90% of the vote there. I haven't been paying close enough attention to be able to predict who will do well and who will not with any degree of certainty beyond that Yang and Adams will clearly be the top vote-getters among ultra-Orthodox, but what really matters are endorsements from the handful of influential rabbis.

I completely agree that the Israel stuff is largely a red herring and doesn't matter that much, especially since Yang and Adams are both in line on it. I do think Israel issues can matter sometimes in terms of more left-wing candidates (who can win some blocks of ultra-Orthodox voters if they court them, but only if they don't spend a lot of time on criticism of Israel), but none of them are contending for the ultra-Orthodox vote anyway: Wiley and Morales will be near 0% in ultra-Orthodox precincts.

[KaiserDave]

One thing is true. Nobody other than Yang and Adams has made substantial effort to win over the Orthodox voters.

[Suburbia]

The NY Post endorsing Adams, a moderate Black Democrat shows that the NYC GOP is a joke. Curtis Sliwa will probably win SI, and barely, probably....in November.....

The fact that Bronz is the only person who has ever posted or mentioned the Republican candidates for Mayor this year is a pretty good explanation for why the Post endorsed a Dem.

the GOP are not even trying, unlike in 2013 when they at least attempted to run a campaign with Lhota

The NYCGOP is too corrupt. Giuliani did not create a bench when he left in 2001--like Chris Christie with the NJGOP.....Giuliani and Christie were once in a generation candidates suitable to win in blue areas with a economically conservative, tough on crime agenda that can appeal to moderate Democrats---but Christie had a better relationship with Black people than Giuliani. Black New Yorkers hate Giuliani because of the rampant police brutality with Louima, Diallo and Dorismond.....all Black men killed or assaulted (Louima is still alive) by white NYPD officers from Long Island and Rockland County. There is a reason why a lot of mayoral candidates and others want to change residency requirements; they feel that white suburban cops patrol Black areas that they don't understand culturally.....

The NYCGOP is moribund, the only way they can win in the future is if a lot of crossover Democrats and Independents vote for a highly-funded Republican who can appeal to all groups in NYC, not only the white ethnics that still remain in the City.

Adams said from 2018, when he was planning a run, that he was going to:

April 2018: At a private event, Adams reportedly pledged he would “out-white” New York City Comptroller Scott Stringerin the 2021 mayoral race. A registered Republican from 1995 to 2002, a time when Democrats arguably failed to effectively combat high crime in the city, Adams has long tried to appeal to white voters, especially when it comes to public safety. “People look at a black candidate and they think he can’t go into the Baysides, Bay Ridges and Marine Parks, and I’m not going to be the candidate that can’t do that,” Adams told the Times.

https://www.cityandstateny.com/articles/politics/new-york-city/how-eric-adams-has-shocked-new-york.html

Adams is probably the only Black man that can win the Bay Ridges and the Marine Parks---white ethnic places seen as hostile to Black people still in 2021---he is not going to be Dinkinsed....

Adams was beaten by a white cop in police brutality---and joined the force to make a change...

[Suburbia]

The NY Post endorsing Adams, a moderate Black Democrat shows that the NYC GOP is a joke. Curtis Sliwa will probably win SI, and barely, probably....in November.....

The fact that Bronz is the only person who has ever posted or mentioned the Republican candidates for Mayor this year is a pretty good explanation for why the Post endorsed a Dem.

the GOP are not even trying, unlike in 2013 when they at least attempted to run a campaign with Lhota

I’m actually surprised they didn’t endorse Yang, or maybe I’m barely paying any attention to Eric Adams’ campaign and he’s more right wing than I thought?

Eric Adams brand of the NYC Democratic right is much more in tune with the New York Post than Yang's.

Which is why there is a possibility that Adams could win Staten Island in November---being the first Democrat to carry SI since Ed Koch in 1985....He is not going to be Dinkinsed, something that has stained citywide Democrats like Mark Green, Fernando Ferrer, Bill Thompson, and others...

[warandwar]

The "100%" swing precinct is New Square, in Rockford County.

Yang has grassroots enthusiasm among the shababnikim (they love bitcoin) so i fully expect some rebbes to endorse Adams but not fully carry the crowd. I've seen some yiddish Yang posters being passed around on hasidic WhatsApp and Telegram meme channels (highly recommend orthodox memes)

[AGA]

In an interview, the candidates was asked what the median price of a home in Brooklyn was, and some of the answers were completely disqualifying: https://www.newsweek.com/nyc-mayor-candidates-shaun-donovan-ray-mcguire-think-average-brooklyn-home-costs-100k-1590464

Correct answer: $900k

Wiley: $1.8 million
Stringer: $1 million
Yang: $900k
Garcia: $800k
Adams: $550k
Morales: $500k
Donovan: $100k
McGuire: $90k

[Pyro]

In an interview, the candidates was asked what the median price of a home in Brooklyn was, and some of the answers were completely disqualifying: https://www.newsweek.com/nyc-mayor-candidates-shaun-donovan-ray-mcguire-think-average-brooklyn-home-costs-100k-1590464

Correct answer: $900k

Wiley: $1.8 million
Stringer: $1 million
Yang: $900k
Garcia: $800k
Adams: $550k
Morales: $500k
Donovan: $100k
McGuire: $90k

This guy was Obama's HUD Secretary for five years. lol

[Duke of York]

The NY Post endorsing Adams, a moderate Black Democrat shows that the NYC GOP is a joke. Curtis Sliwa will probably win SI, and barely, probably....in November.....

The fact that Bronz is the only person who has ever posted or mentioned the Republican candidates for Mayor this year is a pretty good explanation for why the Post endorsed a Dem.

the GOP are not even trying, unlike in 2013 when they at least attempted to run a campaign with Lhota

I’m actually surprised they didn’t endorse Yang, or maybe I’m barely paying any attention to Eric Adams’ campaign and he’s more right wing than I thought?

Eric Adams brand of the NYC Democratic right is much more in tune with the New York Post than Yang's.

Which is why there is a possibility that Adams could win Staten Island in November---being the first Democrat to carry SI since Ed Koch in 1985....He is not going to be Dinkinsed, something that has stained citywide Democrats like Mark Green, Fernando Ferrer, Bill Thompson, and others...

How likely do you think it is he gets the nomination?