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  Data for Progress - D leads in AZ/NC/ME/IA
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Author Topic: Data for Progress - D leads in AZ/NC/ME/IA  (Read 705 times)
ON Progressive
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« on: August 06, 2020, 07:44:11 am »

AZ:
Kelly (D) 50
McSally (R-inc) 40

NC:
Cunningham (D) 49
Tillis (R-inc) 41

ME:
Gideon (D) 48
Collins (R-inc) 45

IA:
Greenfield (D) 45
Ernst (R-inc) 43

http://filesforprogress.org/memos/progressive-senate-polling.pdf
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: August 06, 2020, 07:59:50 am »

It would appear that the Cunningham high single digits lead is actually true, given it has borne out in nearly every poll recently. Wow.

Kelly back to a big lead above McSally. Gideon also seems to be at about a +3/4 lead above Collins from most of the recent polls.

And Monmouth was an outlier yesterday in IA, though their LV models showed an essentially tied race, which it appears to be. Total 50/50 tossup.
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #2 on: August 06, 2020, 08:04:05 am »

That's what I needed after yesterday, although the Maine and Iowa numbers are a bit concerning. I suppose that beating Collins and Ernst was never going to be easy, even in a blue wave.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #3 on: August 06, 2020, 08:10:49 am »

That's what I needed after yesterday, although the Maine and Iowa numbers are a bit concerning. I suppose that beating Collins and Ernst was never going to be easy, even in a blue wave.

Yeah, Collins was never going to go down in a landslide, and neither was Ernst. I expect both to be close, especially IA.

Collins going down by like ~3ish seems realistic.

What is striking in the Maine SE poll is that both candidates are getting nearly 90% of their base. But Independents, critical in Maine, are going Gideon by 14%. That would be game over for Collins if she's losing Indies and only getting 10% Democrat support (which is basically the 8% Gideon is getting of Rs)
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #4 on: August 06, 2020, 09:28:28 am »

That's what I needed after yesterday, although the Maine and Iowa numbers are a bit concerning. I suppose that beating Collins and Ernst was never going to be easy, even in a blue wave.

Yeah, Collins was never going to go down in a landslide, and neither was Ernst. I expect both to be close, especially IA.

Collins going down by like ~3ish seems realistic.

What is striking in the Maine SE poll is that both candidates are getting nearly 90% of their base. But Independents, critical in Maine, are going Gideon by 14%. That would be game over for Collins if she's losing Indies and only getting 10% Democrat support (which is basically the 8% Gideon is getting of Rs)

This is certainly true, because Collins' previous landslide wins have been powered by independents and Democratic defectors. I believe something like 20-30% of Democrats voted for her in 2014, so this represents a significant drop in her support. At any rate, Maine and Iowa both remain Tossups, but a close loss for Collins will still represent a great humiliation for her.
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Pack The Courts
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« Reply #5 on: August 06, 2020, 09:42:45 am »

If Tillis doesnít start turning things around by next month, heís probably finished.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #6 on: August 06, 2020, 10:49:22 am »

MT Treasurer Collins and Ernst arent performing well as tall😍😍😍
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #7 on: August 06, 2020, 11:04:16 am »

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Data 4 Progress on 2020-08-02

Summary: D: 45%, R: 37%, U: 18%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #8 on: August 06, 2020, 11:08:44 am »

New Poll: Maine Senator by Data 4 Progress on 2020-08-02

Summary: D: 44%, R: 43%, U: 13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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SenatorCouzens
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« Reply #9 on: August 06, 2020, 11:09:16 am »

Wow these are good numbers for Collins. Confirmation that things are dire for Tillis at the moment, though.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #10 on: August 06, 2020, 11:12:36 am »

McSally is done, she was down by 2, but now down by 10
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #11 on: August 06, 2020, 11:15:32 am »

New Poll: Iowa Senator by Data 4 Progress on 2020-08-02

Summary: D: 40%, R: 42%, U: 19%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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ElectionAtlas
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« Reply #12 on: August 06, 2020, 11:22:20 am »

New Poll: Arizona Senator (Special) by Data 4 Progress on 2020-08-02

Summary: D: 47%, R: 38%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #13 on: August 06, 2020, 11:34:29 am »

Wow these are good numbers for Collins. Confirmation that things are dire for Tillis at the moment, though.

I'm sorry, how? She's losing Independents by 15% and only getting 10% Dem support.
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Make PA Blue Again!
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« Reply #14 on: August 06, 2020, 12:00:57 pm »


Wait, what?
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DoctorWinstonOBoogie
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« Reply #15 on: August 06, 2020, 01:03:34 pm »


That is not the case. I believe there was a mistake. The linked poll says the following:

Without leaners: D: 42%, R: 40%, U: 19%
With leaners: D: 45%, R: 43%, U: 11%
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SenatorCouzens
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« Reply #16 on: August 06, 2020, 01:23:50 pm »

Wow these are good numbers for Collins. Confirmation that things are dire for Tillis at the moment, though.

I'm sorry, how? She's losing Independents by 15% and only getting 10% Dem support.

Because she's only down three points and it was my sense that there was an increasing consensus that this race was getting away from her and her chances would be dead on arrival by fall. That's all.
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Xing
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« Reply #17 on: August 06, 2020, 01:33:47 pm »

I think Iím ready to move NC-SEN to Lean D. The ME numbers arenít terribly encouraging, since Collins is still overperforming Trump by 7. As for IA polls... stop teasing me. Or at least show Greenfield up by 5 or so, that way even a polling error would still mean sheís ahead.
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DoctorWinstonOBoogie
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« Reply #18 on: August 10, 2020, 07:39:32 pm »


That is not the case. I believe there was a mistake. The linked poll says the following:

Without leaners: D: 42%, R: 40%, U: 19%
With leaners: D: 45%, R: 43%, U: 11%

Will this mistake be fixed? The poll average still shows Ernst +2 when it should be Greenfield +2.
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