Data for Progress - D leads in AZ/NC/ME/IA
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
October 20, 2021, 05:08:28 AM

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 Senate & House Election Polls
  Data for Progress - D leads in AZ/NC/ME/IA
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: Data for Progress - D leads in AZ/NC/ME/IA  (Read 983 times)
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 6,130
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: August 06, 2020, 07:44:11 AM »

AZ:
Kelly (D) 50
McSally (R-inc) 40

NC:
Cunningham (D) 49
Tillis (R-inc) 41

ME:
Gideon (D) 48
Collins (R-inc) 45

IA:
Greenfield (D) 45
Ernst (R-inc) 43

http://filesforprogress.org/memos/progressive-senate-polling.pdf
Logged
wbrocks67
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,697


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: August 06, 2020, 07:59:50 AM »

It would appear that the Cunningham high single digits lead is actually true, given it has borne out in nearly every poll recently. Wow.

Kelly back to a big lead above McSally. Gideon also seems to be at about a +3/4 lead above Collins from most of the recent polls.

And Monmouth was an outlier yesterday in IA, though their LV models showed an essentially tied race, which it appears to be. Total 50/50 tossup.
Logged
SnowLabrador
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 5,038
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: August 06, 2020, 08:04:05 AM »

That's what I needed after yesterday, although the Maine and Iowa numbers are a bit concerning. I suppose that beating Collins and Ernst was never going to be easy, even in a blue wave.
Logged
wbrocks67
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,697


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: August 06, 2020, 08:10:49 AM »

That's what I needed after yesterday, although the Maine and Iowa numbers are a bit concerning. I suppose that beating Collins and Ernst was never going to be easy, even in a blue wave.

Yeah, Collins was never going to go down in a landslide, and neither was Ernst. I expect both to be close, especially IA.

Collins going down by like ~3ish seems realistic.

What is striking in the Maine SE poll is that both candidates are getting nearly 90% of their base. But Independents, critical in Maine, are going Gideon by 14%. That would be game over for Collins if she's losing Indies and only getting 10% Democrat support (which is basically the 8% Gideon is getting of Rs)
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,334
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: August 06, 2020, 09:28:28 AM »

That's what I needed after yesterday, although the Maine and Iowa numbers are a bit concerning. I suppose that beating Collins and Ernst was never going to be easy, even in a blue wave.

Yeah, Collins was never going to go down in a landslide, and neither was Ernst. I expect both to be close, especially IA.

Collins going down by like ~3ish seems realistic.

What is striking in the Maine SE poll is that both candidates are getting nearly 90% of their base. But Independents, critical in Maine, are going Gideon by 14%. That would be game over for Collins if she's losing Indies and only getting 10% Democrat support (which is basically the 8% Gideon is getting of Rs)

This is certainly true, because Collins' previous landslide wins have been powered by independents and Democratic defectors. I believe something like 20-30% of Democrats voted for her in 2014, so this represents a significant drop in her support. At any rate, Maine and Iowa both remain Tossups, but a close loss for Collins will still represent a great humiliation for her.
Logged
Senator WD
Western Democrat
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,579
United States


Political Matrix
E: -5.29, S: 2.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: August 06, 2020, 09:42:45 AM »

If Tillis doesnít start turning things around by next month, heís probably finished.
Logged
Mr. MANDELA BARNES
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,111
Jamaica


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: August 06, 2020, 10:49:22 AM »

MT Treasurer Collins and Ernst arent performing well as tall😍😍😍
Logged
ElectionAtlas
Atlas Proginator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,582
United States


P P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: August 06, 2020, 11:04:16 AM »

New Poll: North Carolina Senator by Data 4 Progress on 2020-08-02

Summary: D: 45%, R: 37%, U: 18%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
ElectionAtlas
Atlas Proginator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,582
United States


P P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: August 06, 2020, 11:08:44 AM »

New Poll: Maine Senator by Data 4 Progress on 2020-08-02

Summary: D: 44%, R: 43%, U: 13%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
SenatorCouzens
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 268
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: August 06, 2020, 11:09:16 AM »

Wow these are good numbers for Collins. Confirmation that things are dire for Tillis at the moment, though.
Logged
Mr. MANDELA BARNES
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 57,111
Jamaica


Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: August 06, 2020, 11:12:36 AM »

McSally is done, she was down by 2, but now down by 10
Logged
ElectionAtlas
Atlas Proginator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,582
United States


P P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: August 06, 2020, 11:15:32 AM »

New Poll: Iowa Senator by Data 4 Progress on 2020-08-02

Summary: D: 40%, R: 42%, U: 19%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
ElectionAtlas
Atlas Proginator
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,582
United States


P P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: August 06, 2020, 11:22:20 AM »

New Poll: Arizona Senator (Special) by Data 4 Progress on 2020-08-02

Summary: D: 47%, R: 38%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
Logged
wbrocks67
Concerned Citizen
*****
Posts: 9,697


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: August 06, 2020, 11:34:29 AM »

Wow these are good numbers for Collins. Confirmation that things are dire for Tillis at the moment, though.

I'm sorry, how? She's losing Independents by 15% and only getting 10% Dem support.
Logged
Josh Shapiro for Governor
PittsburghSteel
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,951
United States


P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: August 06, 2020, 12:00:57 PM »


Wait, what?
Logged
DoctorWinstonOBoogie
Rookie
**
Posts: 61
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -2.45, S: -4.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: August 06, 2020, 01:03:34 PM »


That is not the case. I believe there was a mistake. The linked poll says the following:

Without leaners: D: 42%, R: 40%, U: 19%
With leaners: D: 45%, R: 43%, U: 11%
Logged
SenatorCouzens
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 268
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: August 06, 2020, 01:23:50 PM »

Wow these are good numbers for Collins. Confirmation that things are dire for Tillis at the moment, though.

I'm sorry, how? She's losing Independents by 15% and only getting 10% Dem support.

Because she's only down three points and it was my sense that there was an increasing consensus that this race was getting away from her and her chances would be dead on arrival by fall. That's all.
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 25,663
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.26, S: -4.96

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: August 06, 2020, 01:33:47 PM »

I think Iím ready to move NC-SEN to Lean D. The ME numbers arenít terribly encouraging, since Collins is still overperforming Trump by 7. As for IA polls... stop teasing me. Or at least show Greenfield up by 5 or so, that way even a polling error would still mean sheís ahead.
Logged
DoctorWinstonOBoogie
Rookie
**
Posts: 61
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -2.45, S: -4.52

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: August 10, 2020, 07:39:32 PM »


That is not the case. I believe there was a mistake. The linked poll says the following:

Without leaners: D: 42%, R: 40%, U: 19%
With leaners: D: 45%, R: 43%, U: 11%

Will this mistake be fixed? The poll average still shows Ernst +2 when it should be Greenfield +2.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.036 seconds with 14 queries.