Data for Progress - D leads in AZ/NC/ME/IA

[wbrocks67]

It would appear that the Cunningham high single digits lead is actually true, given it has borne out in nearly every poll recently. Wow.

Kelly back to a big lead above McSally. Gideon also seems to be at about a +3/4 lead above Collins from most of the recent polls.

And Monmouth was an outlier yesterday in IA, though their LV models showed an essentially tied race, which it appears to be. Total 50/50 tossup.

[wbrocks67]

That's what I needed after yesterday, although the Maine and Iowa numbers are a bit concerning. I suppose that beating Collins and Ernst was never going to be easy, even in a blue wave.

Yeah, Collins was never going to go down in a landslide, and neither was Ernst. I expect both to be close, especially IA.

Collins going down by like ~3ish seems realistic.

What is striking in the Maine SE poll is that both candidates are getting nearly 90% of their base. But Independents, critical in Maine, are going Gideon by 14%. That would be game over for Collins if she's losing Indies and only getting 10% Democrat support (which is basically the 8% Gideon is getting of Rs)

[wbrocks67]

Wow these are good numbers for Collins. Confirmation that things are dire for Tillis at the moment, though.

I'm sorry, how? She's losing Independents by 15% and only getting 10% Dem support.