That's what I needed after yesterday, although the Maine and Iowa numbers are a bit concerning. I suppose that beating Collins and Ernst was never going to be easy, even in a blue wave.
Yeah, Collins was never going to go down in a landslide, and neither was Ernst. I expect both to be close, especially IA.
Collins going down by like ~3ish seems realistic.
What is striking in the Maine SE poll is that both candidates are getting nearly 90% of their base. But Independents, critical in Maine, are going Gideon by 14%. That would be game over for Collins if she's losing Indies and only getting 10% Democrat support (which is basically the 8% Gideon is getting of Rs)
This is certainly true, because Collins' previous landslide wins have been powered by independents and Democratic defectors. I believe something like 20-30% of Democrats voted for her in 2014, so this represents a significant drop in her support. At any rate, Maine and Iowa both remain Tossups, but a close loss for Collins will still represent a great humiliation for her.
