In which state will Democrats suffer the worst losses under a Biden presidency?

[MT Treasurer]

I think it’s fair to say that Democrats during the Obama administration suffered their most dramatic losses in Arkansas, where the electoral landscape essentially shifted from one-party Democratic control to total decimation of the party in only 4-6 years.

For Republicans under Trump, it was arguably Texas, where Democratic gains were not only incredibly rapid and quite dramatic but are also likely to have major long-term implications.

Which (if any) state will be somewhat comparable to those at the end of Biden's presidency?

My guess would be Iowa. I could see Republicans sweeping all statewide races + House seats in 2022 and solidifying their grip on the state for good during his presidency.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I’ll be bold and say Minnesota

[brucejoel99]

Yeah, I'd also guess Iowa.

[Roll Roons]

Ohio Democrats also actually suffered pretty badly during the Obama years. In January 2009, they had 10/18 U.S. House seats, all statewide executive offices except Auditor, and a majority in the State House. Then they lost pretty much everything in 2010, and their prospects for recovery in 2014 were tanked by Ed Fitzgerald.

Anyway, losses during a Biden presidency are hard to predict, but I'll say somewhere in the Northeast. Maybe New Hampshire, considering how volatile it is.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I’ll be bold and say Minnesota

No

[S019]

Iowa is a good guess, given the GOP could very well have all of the row offices, all 4 House seats, and control of both state legislative chambers following the 2022 midterms.

[windjammer]

Iowa. I think non college whites are going to trend even more towards the GOP. In PA and MI you can argue that there are some college whites places that could offset the trends but in Iowa,well, it's heavily rural.

[NewYorkExpress]

New York.

Now,it's not going to be enough to cost Democrats statewide elections, barring running really bad candidates, but it could see them reduced to a New York City only party in House Districts, and be enough to flip the State Senate (Democrats can control the State Assembly on New York City Districts alone.)

[Oryxslayer]

Once again, reminder that redistricting is happening. Gerrymanders like that of the NY senate will be undone, and new ones in places like Texas will come into effect. The exact specifics though are hard to foresee.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, and Michigan are where they stand to lose the most. Nevada looks to be the easiest to defend of the bunch, and fortunately for Dems, they don’t have Senate races up in Minnesota or Michigan in 2022. The only thing I can think of that might stop a complete wipeout in Iowa would be if Reynolds continues to be viewed very negatively from her COVID response.

They already don’t have anything of note in FL, OH, TX, and GA so you can’t lose what you never had aside from a few House seats that Republicans will steal from redistricting.

[Mr.Phips]

New York.

Now,it's not going to be enough to cost Democrats statewide elections, barring running really bad candidates, but it could see them reduced to a New York City only party in House Districts, and be enough to flip the State Senate (Democrats can control the State Assembly on New York City Districts alone.)

Democrats will always have an Albany, Rochester, Buffalo, and Westchester seat even in the worst of times.

Also, the state Senate map that cracks Rochester and other upstate cities like Kingston, Binghamton, and Ithaca will be gone in 2022.

[Greedo punched first]

Brian Higgins and Mondaire Jones are safe in a Biden midterm.

[Mr.Phips]

Brian Higgins and Mondaire Jones are safe in a Biden midterm.

So is a Tonko.

[Greedo punched first]

Brian Higgins and Mondaire Jones are safe in a Biden midterm.

So is a Tonko.

I forgot about Tonko.

[Sir Mohamed]

Perhaps IA. But MN wouldn't shock me as well.

Could be wrong, but hot take: I have a feeling a Biden presidency will cause much less backlash than Obama's or Trump's did. Or even Clinton. I don't think Biden will be a huge albatross for Dems going into 2022 unless he completely screws up (which, of course, isn't likely to happen). Mainly because the GOP is going to have problems of its own, with a shrinking voter base and lack of appeal and outreach to growing voting blocs. Trump has damaged the GOP brand longterm. Even when he's gone, his enablers won't disappear at once. They will be there, even in minority. The suburbs won't trend back to W Bush levels or even where they were in 2010 or even 2014. Meanwhile, rural areas are close to maxed out for them and steadily lose population anyway. In addition, post-2020 redistricting will be far less GOP friendly.

[Orser67]

NV stands out for being a borderline swing state where a Senate seat, multiple House seats, the governor's office, and both state legislative chambers could potentially flip Republican in 2022. Maine is another state where Democrats could lose a lot of ground in 2022.

[Mr.Phips]

NV stands out for being a borderline swing state where a Senate seat, multiple House seats, the governor's office, and both state legislative chambers could potentially flip Republican in 2022. Maine is another state where Democrats could lose a lot of ground in 2022.

Dems better redraw the lines there in 2021 to make sure that doesn’t happen.

[Greedo punched first]

How will Democrats do in Ohio? New redistricting laws passed will slightly help Democrats. The Cincinnati and Columbus suburbs are becoming more hostile to the GOP.

[Tekken_Guy]

I'd say Iowa. The GOP could be 4-0 in the house, although redistricting could work in the Dems' favor, if Linn/Johnson/Scott and Polk/Dallas/Story are each kept together.

[Xing]

Since we’re talking about losses, rather than failing to make pick-ups, it’s hard to say, since they’re not going to be playing much defense in the Senate. While they could hit rock bottom in IA, that would basically just mean the three House seats, and that’s assuming that they hold all three this year. I could see them losing more House seats in NY, and they could suffer some bad losses in NH as well. PA could be bad for them, too. I only see NV being bad for Democrats if 2022 is as bad or worse for them as 2010, and even then, Republican gains could amount to short-term loans. Seats like PA-08 could flip Republican in 2022 and be very hard for Democrats to take back.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, and Michigan are where they stand to lose the most. Nevada looks to be the easiest to defend of the bunch, and fortunately for Dems, they don’t have Senate races up in Minnesota or Michigan in 2022. The only thing I can think of that might stop a complete wipeout in Iowa would be if Reynolds continues to be viewed very negatively from her COVID response.

They already don’t have anything of note in FL, OH, TX, and GA so you can’t lose what you never had aside from a few House seats that Republicans will steal from redistricting.

Or you know Biden and dem congress could just mandate independent commissions?

[Mr.Phips]

Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, and Michigan are where they stand to lose the most. Nevada looks to be the easiest to defend of the bunch, and fortunately for Dems, they don’t have Senate races up in Minnesota or Michigan in 2022. The only thing I can think of that might stop a complete wipeout in Iowa would be if Reynolds continues to be viewed very negatively from her COVID response.

They already don’t have anything of note in FL, OH, TX, and GA so you can’t lose what you never had aside from a few House seats that Republicans will steal from redistricting.

Or you know Biden and dem congress could just mandate independent commissions?

They would be idiots not to. 

[Yoda]

How will Democrats do in Ohio? New redistricting laws passed will slightly help Democrats. The Cincinnati and Columbus suburbs are becoming more hostile to the GOP.

You're right to say "somewhat". The redistricting initiative that passed is simply "gerrymander-lite" that will probably net Dems one House seat when under a true, fair, nonpartisan redistricting they would net 3 or 4.

How much exactly Democrats stand to gain (or lose) in Ohio depends somewhat on if dems can manage to win the two Ohio Scotus seats that are up this Novemeber.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, and Michigan are where they stand to lose the most. Nevada looks to be the easiest to defend of the bunch, and fortunately for Dems, they don’t have Senate races up in Minnesota or Michigan in 2022. The only thing I can think of that might stop a complete wipeout in Iowa would be if Reynolds continues to be viewed very negatively from her COVID response.

They already don’t have anything of note in FL, OH, TX, and GA so you can’t lose what you never had aside from a few House seats that Republicans will steal from redistricting.

Or you know Biden and dem congress could just mandate independent commissions?

I won’t hold my breath on that. Also, NH could be very bad for Dems at the congressional level, and that’s the single state that stands out to me initially as the most vulnerable for Dems that year at that level.

[YE]

NV stands out for being a borderline swing state where a Senate seat, multiple House seats, the governor's office, and both state legislative chambers could potentially flip Republican in 2022. Maine is another state where Democrats could lose a lot of ground in 2022.

Dems better redraw the lines there in 2021 to make sure that doesn’t happen.

Barring a GOP comeback in the suburbs, Nevada is a natural Dem gerrymander geography wise so somewhat hard to see GOP controlling either chamber anytime soon.