In which state will Democrats suffer the worst losses under a Biden presidency?

[YE]

In answer to the question, Iowa and possibly Maine and Wisconsin due to their elasticity and favorable trends.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Evers has a 50 percent approval rating, he isnt going anywhere in 2022, Doyle scandal was the reason why Waller won big in 2010.

[Battista Minola 1616]

I am sure that this decade will set in motion trends no one can foresee now.
But I will be less bold than that and say Maine.

(my bold prediction would be Rhode Island)

[MT Treasurer]

Bumping this now that we know the 2020 results. Any new guesses/revisions/additions?

[KaiserDave]

Bumping this now that we know the 2020 results. Any new guesses/revisions/additions?

Well, it will get worse for Dems in most Trump states. That much is true.

[Matty]

What about......california?

[Mr.Phips]

Bumping this now that we know the 2020 results. Any new guesses/revisions/additions?

Well, it will get worse for Dems in most Trump states. That much is true.

Don’t know how much it can given how terrible 2020 already was in them.

[KaiserDave]

Bumping this now that we know the 2020 results. Any new guesses/revisions/additions?

Well, it will get worse for Dems in most Trump states. That much is true.

Don’t know how much it can given how terrible 2020 already was in them.

Well, not all Trump states are West Virginia. In Indiana, Missouri, Florida, it can and will get worse.

[Frenchrepublican]

Bumping this now that we know the 2020 results. Any new guesses/revisions/additions?

Well, it will get worse for Dems in most Trump states. That much is true.

Don’t know how much it can given how terrible 2020 already was in them.

You still have some democratic legislators in rural Iowa, northeastern PA, eastern KY, northern MN, most of them will likely get wiped out.

[Frenchrepublican]

Generally speaking I don't think it is about one state in particular where democrats will suffer, it's more about the rural/small cities areas where democrats will likely completely disappear (outside of the Mississipi delta and western MA), not just at the federal level (where they have already reached a pretty low point anyway), but also at the local/county level.

The places where this trend will be the most apparent will be rural Iowa, northwestern Ohio, southwestern Wisconsin, southern parts of Texas, northwestern Indiana, parts of NM, western and northeastern PA, northern Minnesota.

[Frenchrepublican]

Bumping this now that we know the 2020 results. Any new guesses/revisions/additions?

Well, it will get worse for Dems in most Trump states. That much is true.

Don’t know how much it can given how terrible 2020 already was in them.

Well, not all Trump states are West Virginia. In Indiana, Missouri, Florida, it can and will get worse.

Actually democrats still have more ground to lose in West Virginia than in Missouri.

[Pollster]

Iowa is probably where the losses will be most measurable in terms of election defeats in competitive/once-competitive places, but it's really hard to find a state Democratic party in worse shape and with less reason to be hopeful than Indiana's. IN-01 is trending away from them, it's extremely unlikely that a left-stampeding district like IN-05 will be left intact under its current lines, and the party is absolutely buried in both chambers of the legislature and barely broke 30% in the last gubernatorial election.

[VAR]

georgia because white women swung to trump

also unlike those uneducated iowans, upscale college-educated atlanta suburbanites actually know that it's a BIDEN MIDTERM and will vote accordingly.

[WD]

georgia because white women swung to trump

also unlike those uneducated iowans, upscale college-educated atlanta suburbanites actually know that it's a BIDEN MIDTERM and will vote accordingly.

warnock is doa if he wins

[VAR]

georgia because white women swung to trump

also unlike those uneducated iowans, upscale college-educated atlanta suburbanites actually know that it's a BIDEN MIDTERM and will vote accordingly.

warnock is doa if he wins

he could lose to mtg tbqh

[WD]

georgia because white women swung to trump

also unlike those uneducated iowans, upscale college-educated atlanta suburbanites actually know that it's a BIDEN MIDTERM and will vote accordingly.

warnock is doa if he wins

he could lose to mtg tbqh

she’d win cobb imo

[VAR]

georgia because white women swung to trump

also unlike those uneducated iowans, upscale college-educated atlanta suburbanites actually know that it's a BIDEN MIDTERM and will vote accordingly.

warnock is doa if he wins

he could lose to mtg tbqh

she’d win cobb imo

not if warnock runs ads about young kim

[jamestroll]

From the way some talk.. you would think it is Virginia.

[MT Treasurer]

georgia because white women swung to trump

also unlike those uneducated iowans, upscale college-educated atlanta suburbanites actually know that it's a BIDEN MIDTERM and will vote accordingly.

No doubt about it, solid analysis right there. Moderate, reasonable, swingy, independent-minded exurban/suburban Abrams (2018)/Barrow (2018)/McBath (2018/2020)/Biden (2020)/Warnock (2021)/Ossoff (2021) voters will want to put that check on Biden (IF Loeffler distances herself from Trump, moderates her rhetoric, and legislates sensibly).

if loeffler says ‘the era of trumpism is over’ and returns to the roots of the party of lincoln she wins before ronjon imo

[KaiserDave]

You guys are amazing

[OSR stands with Israel]

Wisconsin

[MT Treasurer]

You guys are amazing

The fun part is that there are actually people who think that voters who turn out for a runoff to hand control of the Senate to the Democrats are winnable for Republicans in 2022 (and beyond) if only they ‘moderate’ their rhetoric and message sufficiently. I’m 99% sure that ‘Loeffler less vulnerable than Ron Johnson’ or ‘Sununu less likely to win than Loeffler’ will be quite common unironic takes/talking points among several pundits and posters in 2021/2022.

[WD]

You guys are amazing

The fun part is that there are actually people who think that voters who turn out for a runoff to hand control of the Senate to the Democrats are winnable for Republicans in 2022 (and beyond) if only they ‘moderate’ their rhetoric and message sufficiently. I’m 99% sure that ‘Loeffler less vulnerable than Ron Johnson’ or ‘Sununu less likely to win than Loeffler’ will be quite common unironic takes/talking points among several pundits and posters in 2021/2022.

This is probably the most likely 2022 result:

Ohio and Kentucky could flip without Trump on the ballot too.

[S019]

You guys are amazing

The fun part is that there are actually people who think that voters who turn out for a runoff to hand control of the Senate to the Democrats are winnable for Republicans in 2022 (and beyond) if only they ‘moderate’ their rhetoric and message sufficiently. I’m 99% sure that ‘Loeffler less vulnerable than Ron Johnson’ or ‘Sununu less likely to win than Loeffler’ will be quite common unironic takes/talking points among several pundits and posters in 2021/2022.

This is probably the most likely 2022 result:

Ohio and Kentucky could flip without Trump on the ballot too.

Don't forget Alaska, Self hating RINO Murk will never get the Trumpists to turn out for her, she'd be lucky to lose by less than 10 imo tbh

[Calthrina950]

I think it’s fair to say that Democrats during the Obama administration suffered their most dramatic losses in Arkansas, where the electoral landscape essentially shifted from one-party Democratic control to total decimation of the party in only 4-6 years.

For Republicans under Trump, it was arguably Texas, where Democratic gains were not only incredibly rapid and quite dramatic but are also likely to have major long-term implications.

Which (if any) state will be somewhat comparable to those at the end of Biden's presidency?

My guess would be Iowa. I could see Republicans sweeping all statewide races + House seats in 2022 and solidifying their grip on the state for good during his presidency.

Democrats certainly have gained ground in Texas, but nowhere near to the speed or the extent that Republicans conquered Arkansas. And the trends in the Rio Grande Valley will complicate the Democratic trend forward in that state. But in regards to the question, I think Iowa will probably see the worst regression of the Democratic Party, even more then it already has become.