In which state will Democrats suffer the worst losses under a Biden presidency?

[SenatorCouzens]

Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Nevada, and Michigan are where they stand to lose the most. Nevada looks to be the easiest to defend of the bunch, and fortunately for Dems, they don’t have Senate races up in Minnesota or Michigan in 2022. The only thing I can think of that might stop a complete wipeout in Iowa would be if Reynolds continues to be viewed very negatively from her COVID response.

They already don’t have anything of note in FL, OH, TX, and GA so you can’t lose what you never had aside from a few House seats that Republicans will steal from redistricting.

Or you know Biden and dem congress could just mandate independent commissions?

They would be idiots not to. 

I'm not sure if this is sarcasm, but it would require them to eliminate the filibuster which Manchin and others have promised not to do.

Also, the courts would immediately strike down the legislation so it would all be for naught.

[MT Treasurer]

I think it’s fair to say that Democrats during the Obama administration suffered their most dramatic losses in Arkansas, where the electoral landscape essentially shifted from one-party Democratic control to total decimation of the party in only 4-6 years.

For Republicans under Trump, it was arguably Texas, where Democratic gains were not only incredibly rapid and quite dramatic but are also likely to have major long-term implications.

Which (if any) state will be somewhat comparable to those at the end of Biden's presidency?

My guess would be Iowa. I could see Republicans sweeping all statewide races + House seats in 2022 and solidifying their grip on the state for good during his presidency.

Democrats certainly have gained ground in Texas, but nowhere near to the speed or the extent that Republicans conquered Arkansas. And the trends in the Rio Grande Valley will complicate the Democratic trend forward in that state. But in regards to the question, I think Iowa will probably see the worst regression of the Democratic Party, even more then it already has become.

Well, that comment was from July, when my delusional self did not foresee the sizable R swings in the RGV + overestimated the extent of the R collapse in the Houston metro, where the party held up better than I would have expected. In retrospect, I might have picked your state of CO instead of TX (not only did Trump fail to crack 42% in CO with no major third-party on the ballot, but Republicans lost all statewide offices in 2018, their incumbent Senator was defeated badly by a very flawed opponent, the GOP got decimated in the CO House, Democrats flipped the State Senate, CO-06 flipped for good and is no longer even remotely competitive, and literally every CD seems to be trending to the left). It essentially shifted from a Lean D to a Safe D state under Trump, even voted a few points to the left of VA, and is increasingly resembling OR more than any other Mountain State politically.

(That said, I’d still say that TX turning from a safe R state into a lean R was a significant transition.)

[Calthrina950]

I think it’s fair to say that Democrats during the Obama administration suffered their most dramatic losses in Arkansas, where the electoral landscape essentially shifted from one-party Democratic control to total decimation of the party in only 4-6 years.

For Republicans under Trump, it was arguably Texas, where Democratic gains were not only incredibly rapid and quite dramatic but are also likely to have major long-term implications.

Which (if any) state will be somewhat comparable to those at the end of Biden's presidency?

My guess would be Iowa. I could see Republicans sweeping all statewide races + House seats in 2022 and solidifying their grip on the state for good during his presidency.

Democrats certainly have gained ground in Texas, but nowhere near to the speed or the extent that Republicans conquered Arkansas. And the trends in the Rio Grande Valley will complicate the Democratic trend forward in that state. But in regards to the question, I think Iowa will probably see the worst regression of the Democratic Party, even more then it already has become.

Well, that comment was from July, when my delusional self did not foresee the sizable R swings in the RGV + overestimated the extent of the R collapse in the Houston metro, where the party held up better than I would have expected. In retrospect, I might have picked your state of CO instead of TX (not only did Trump fail to crack 42% in CO with no major third-party on the ballot, but Republicans lost all statewide offices in 2018, their incumbent Senator was defeated badly by a very flawed opponent, the GOP got decimated in the CO House, Democrats flipped the State Senate, CO-06 flipped for good and is no longer even remotely competitive, and literally every CD seems to be trending to the left). It essentially shifted from a Lean D to a Safe D state under Trump, even voted a few points to the left of VA, and is increasingly resembling OR more than any other Mountain State politically.

(That said, I’d still say that TX turning from a safe R state into a lean R was a significant transition.)

I agree fully with you about Colorado. The state has now become virtually unwinnable for Republicans, at the federal and the statewide level. Bennet and Polis, along with the other statewide Democrats, will have no difficulty winning reelection in 2022. Colorado's demographics are particularly brutal for the Republicans, as the state has high concentrations of college-educated whites and younger voters-both of which have become increasingly hostile towards that Party.

[KaiserDave]

You guys are amazing

The fun part is that there are actually people who think that voters who turn out for a runoff to hand control of the Senate to the Democrats are winnable for Republicans in 2022 (and beyond) if only they ‘moderate’ their rhetoric and message sufficiently. I’m 99% sure that ‘Loeffler less vulnerable than Ron Johnson’ or ‘Sununu less likely to win than Loeffler’ will be quite common unironic takes/talking points among several pundits and posters in 2021/2022.

Warnock is DOA if Republicans run a strong candidate like Karen Handel in 2022

[Devils30]

Hard to say Iowa is much of a further loss for Dems considering it is literally just IA-3 and a couple statewide downballot offices left.

[Tekken_Guy]

You guys are amazing

The fun part is that there are actually people who think that voters who turn out for a runoff to hand control of the Senate to the Democrats are winnable for Republicans in 2022 (and beyond) if only they ‘moderate’ their rhetoric and message sufficiently. I’m 99% sure that ‘Loeffler less vulnerable than Ron Johnson’ or ‘Sununu less likely to win than Loeffler’ will be quite common unironic takes/talking points among several pundits and posters in 2021/2022.

Warnock is DOA if Republicans run a strong candidate like Karen Handel in 2022

Umm, Handel is definitely not a strong candidate.

[Calthrina950]

You guys are amazing

The fun part is that there are actually people who think that voters who turn out for a runoff to hand control of the Senate to the Democrats are winnable for Republicans in 2022 (and beyond) if only they ‘moderate’ their rhetoric and message sufficiently. I’m 99% sure that ‘Loeffler less vulnerable than Ron Johnson’ or ‘Sununu less likely to win than Loeffler’ will be quite common unironic takes/talking points among several pundits and posters in 2021/2022.

Warnock is DOA if Republicans run a strong candidate like Karen Handel in 2022

Umm, Handel is definitely not a strong candidate.

I believe he's being sarcastic.

[Mr.Phips]

Hard to say Iowa is much of a further loss for Dems considering it is literally just IA-3 and a couple statewide downballot offices left.

And Dems have been basically decimated in the state legislature.  There are two Trump/Dem seats left in the state Senate up in 2022 and only a few in the State House.

[Skill and Chance]

Most likely a state with a lot of ancestral rural Dem strength and very little ancestral suburban GOP strength (IA, WI, OH to the extent there is much more to lose) or a state with giant majority-minority cities that were already near unanimous Dem in the Obama era (CA, FL, NY, IL, PA, maybe MI) or a state with structural pro-GOP demographic change (FL, SC, and TN retirees, maybe NC as well).

Of all of these, Florida probably has the most Dem downside.  If Miami-Dade flips, it could go the way of Arkansas in 2010. 

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

Hard to say Iowa is much of a further loss for Dems considering it is literally just IA-3 and a couple statewide downballot offices left.

And Dems have been basically decimated in the state legislature.  There are two Trump/Dem seats left in the state Senate up in 2022 and only a few in the State House.

Indeed, the Democrats don't have much further to fall in the state legislature. All they have left to lose is the marginal seats, and at their current state, that isn't much (unless the bottom falls out even further, and the Democrats start losing seats in the small cities as well).

What will be the last line for the Iowa Democrats is their three statewide officeholders and IA-03. If

A) The longest-serving state AG and longest-serving State Treasurer in US history go down in defeat, and
B) Democrats can't hold a single US House seat (out of four) in what was, ultimately, a Lean-Likely GOP state this year

Then the bottom will have fallen out for the Iowa Democratic Party.

If the Iowa Democratic Party can hit the absolute baselines of holding all their current statewide offices and IA-03, as well as show an ability to defend/pick up seats in the state legislature, then they'll be okay for the future - crawling out of a Democratic president's midterm with minimal losses in a state trending against the Democratic Party would be quite a feat. However, a good future is never a guarantee.

[Roll Roons]

Hard to say Iowa is much of a further loss for Dems considering it is literally just IA-3 and a couple statewide downballot offices left.

And Dems have been basically decimated in the state legislature.  There are two Trump/Dem seats left in the state Senate up in 2022 and only a few in the State House.

Indeed, the Democrats don't have much further to fall in the state legislature. All they have left to lose is the marginal seats, and at their current state, that isn't much (unless the bottom falls out even further, and the Democrats start losing seats in the small cities as well).

What will be the last line for the Iowa Democrats is their three statewide officeholders and IA-03. If

A) The longest-serving state AG and longest-serving State Treasurer in US history go down in defeat, and
B) Democrats can't hold a single US House seat (out of four) in what was, ultimately, a Lean-Likely GOP state this year

Then the bottom will have fallen out for the Iowa Democratic Party.

If the Iowa Democratic Party can hit the absolute baselines of holding all their current statewide offices and IA-03, as well as show an ability to defend/pick up seats in the state legislature, then they'll be okay for the future - crawling out of a Democratic president's midterm with minimal losses in a state trending against the Democratic Party would be quite a feat. However, a good future is never a guarantee.

Not sure what Fitzgerald and Sand will do, but I’ve heard Miller is likely to retire in 2022. It’s not impossible, but it would not be easy for Democrats to hold his office.

[Mr.Phips]

Hard to say Iowa is much of a further loss for Dems considering it is literally just IA-3 and a couple statewide downballot offices left.

And Dems have been basically decimated in the state legislature.  There are two Trump/Dem seats left in the state Senate up in 2022 and only a few in the State House.

Indeed, the Democrats don't have much further to fall in the state legislature. All they have left to lose is the marginal seats, and at their current state, that isn't much (unless the bottom falls out even further, and the Democrats start losing seats in the small cities as well).

What will be the last line for the Iowa Democrats is their three statewide officeholders and IA-03. If

A) The longest-serving state AG and longest-serving State Treasurer in US history go down in defeat, and
B) Democrats can't hold a single US House seat (out of four) in what was, ultimately, a Lean-Likely GOP state this year

Then the bottom will have fallen out for the Iowa Democratic Party.

If the Iowa Democratic Party can hit the absolute baselines of holding all their current statewide offices and IA-03, as well as show an ability to defend/pick up seats in the state legislature, then they'll be okay for the future - crawling out of a Democratic president's midterm with minimal losses in a state trending against the Democratic Party would be quite a feat. However, a good future is never a guarantee.

I’d say Axne has a decent chance of holding on in a Polk county based seat.  It’s going to have to shed rural (read very Republican) territory due to population growth in DesMoines, which will only help her.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Too early to say, we don't even know who will control the Senate

[iceman]

Hard to say Iowa is much of a further loss for Dems considering it is literally just IA-3 and a couple statewide downballot offices left.

And Dems have been basically decimated in the state legislature.  There are two Trump/Dem seats left in the state Senate up in 2022 and only a few in the State House.

Indeed, the Democrats don't have much further to fall in the state legislature. All they have left to lose is the marginal seats, and at their current state, that isn't much (unless the bottom falls out even further, and the Democrats start losing seats in the small cities as well).

What will be the last line for the Iowa Democrats is their three statewide officeholders and IA-03. If

A) The longest-serving state AG and longest-serving State Treasurer in US history go down in defeat, and
B) Democrats can't hold a single US House seat (out of four) in what was, ultimately, a Lean-Likely GOP state this year

Then the bottom will have fallen out for the Iowa Democratic Party.

If the Iowa Democratic Party can hit the absolute baselines of holding all their current statewide offices and IA-03, as well as show an ability to defend/pick up seats in the state legislature, then they'll be okay for the future - crawling out of a Democratic president's midterm with minimal losses in a state trending against the Democratic Party would be quite a feat. However, a good future is never a guarantee.

The collapse of IA DEMs would probably be expedited too when the US House chooses to seat Rita Hart over Marianette Miller-Meeks. According to a recent poll, more than half of Iowa voters would see her as an illegitimate congresswoman. And such actions of the DEM Majority in the US house would yield a huge backlash going into 2022 elections.

[VAR]

The collapse of IA DEMs would probably be expedited too when the US House chooses to seat Rita Hart over Marianette Miller-Meeks. According to a recent poll, more than half of Iowa voters would see her as an illegitimate congresswoman. And such actions of the DEM Majority in the US house would yield a huge backlash going into 2022 elections.

Link?

[freepcrusher]

the way Iowa redraws its map with the dumb no county rule means its a wild card what the maps look like. If Axne gets a district similar to the 1980s IA-4; she should be safe for the decade. If not, then she very well may lose in 2022. Tom Miller is the last statewide dem in a high profile office. I hope he stays put in 2022. He probably should be favored given that he survived 1994, 2010 and 2014.

It kind of makes me wonder - were the 2010-2016 losses sort of necessary for the democrats? In twenty years I think we'll agree that it forced them to realize what there coalition actually was and go from there.

[iceman]

The collapse of IA DEMs would probably be expedited too when the US House chooses to seat Rita Hart over Marianette Miller-Meeks. According to a recent poll, more than half of Iowa voters would see her as an illegitimate congresswoman. And such actions of the DEM Majority in the US house would yield a huge backlash going into 2022 elections.

Link?

https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/politics/530732-will-house-democrats-steal-a-congressional-seat-in-iowas-2nd

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/iowa-voters-would-view-hart-as-an-illegitimate-congresswoman-if-installed-by-house-poll