NC (Gravis/OANN) - Tillis +1
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  NC (Gravis/OANN) - Tillis +1
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Author Topic: NC (Gravis/OANN) - Tillis +1  (Read 1083 times)
Lisa's voting Biden
LCameronAL
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« on: June 19, 2020, 09:21:55 PM »

Tillis - 46
Cunningham - 45
Uncertain - 9

631 RV, June 17, +/- 3.9%
https://d2pggiv3o55wnc.cloudfront.net/oann/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/President-Trump-Leads-in-North-Carolina-OAN-Gravis-Poll.pdf
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Horsemask
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« Reply #1 on: June 19, 2020, 09:58:17 PM »

>OANN
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GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB
weatherboy1102
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« Reply #2 on: June 19, 2020, 10:00:09 PM »

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WD
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« Reply #3 on: June 19, 2020, 10:07:40 PM »

Tillis is underperforming Trump by 2 points in this poll as well. In a state like NC he canít afford that. Considering that this is OANN of all people, Cunningham is probably narrowly up. Tossup, gun to my head Cunningham wins by 2-3 points, Biden wins by a point or less.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #4 on: June 19, 2020, 10:39:13 PM »

Yeah, these numbers in an OANN poll are honestly very good for Cunningham.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #5 on: June 20, 2020, 08:46:40 AM »

Tillis isnt that conservative, he can win
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SN2903
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« Reply #6 on: June 20, 2020, 11:16:53 AM »

NC is tilt R/lean R state. Dems are wasting their time.
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Storr
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« Reply #7 on: June 20, 2020, 01:34:03 PM »

Tillis isnt that conservative, he can win
He's the epitome of an empty suit.
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Harvey Updyke Jr🌹
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« Reply #8 on: June 20, 2020, 07:22:01 PM »

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Harvey Updyke Jr🌹
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« Reply #9 on: June 20, 2020, 07:22:50 PM »

There should be a gentelmen's agreement:  No OANN polls or that pollster who Shook Nate at 538 banned (The Progress Campaign, I think?)
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #10 on: June 20, 2020, 07:24:33 PM »

There should be a gentelmen's agreement:  No OANN polls or that pollster who Shook Nate at 538 banned (The Progress Campaign, I think?)

No. Let's include both - there are too few polls and if OANN are merely commissioning Gravis and releasing the surveys they like, they're not worse than internal polls.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #11 on: June 20, 2020, 07:31:07 PM »

NC is turning into an R state unlike AZ, FL and GA which are D leaning
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #12 on: June 20, 2020, 07:32:35 PM »

NC is turning into an R state unlike AZ, FL and GA which are D leaning

It isn't going to trend D in this cycle, but it still looks like the sheer swing will outweigh any R trend here. The presidential and senatorial races are still tilt D, and the gubernatorial contest likely D.
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Harvey Updyke Jr🌹
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« Reply #13 on: June 20, 2020, 07:32:43 PM »

There should be a gentelmen's agreement:  No OANN polls or that pollster who Shook Nate at 538 banned (The Progress Campaign, I think?)

No. Let's include both - there are too few polls and if OANN are merely commissioning Gravis and releasing the surveys they like, they're not worse than internal polls.

ok but the latter was banned from 538 for faking data

That should get you on the Atlas sh**t list surely?
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #14 on: June 20, 2020, 07:34:09 PM »

There should be a gentelmen's agreement:  No OANN polls or that pollster who Shook Nate at 538 banned (The Progress Campaign, I think?)

No. Let's include both - there are too few polls and if OANN are merely commissioning Gravis and releasing the surveys they like, they're not worse than internal polls.

ok but the latter was banned from 538 for faking data

That should get you on the Atlas sh**t list surely?

They were banned because their earlier, non-scientific surveys were judged when they (ostensibly) only wanted to submit their later surveys. 538 are in the process of re-vetting them.
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Harvey Updyke Jr🌹
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« Reply #15 on: June 20, 2020, 09:07:01 PM »
« Edited: June 20, 2020, 09:13:48 PM by Harvey Lee Updyke III🌹 »

There should be a gentelmen's agreement:  No OANN polls or that pollster who Shook Nate at 538 banned (The Progress Campaign, I think?)

No. Let's include both - there are too few polls and if OANN are merely commissioning Gravis and releasing the surveys they like, they're not worse than internal polls.

ok but the latter was banned from 538 for faking data

That should get you on the Atlas sh**t list surely?

They were banned because their earlier, non-scientific surveys were judged when they (ostensibly) only wanted to submit their later surveys. 538 are in the process of re-vetting them.

Did that come from them (progress) or whichever intern answers the emails at 538?  Assholes didn't respond to mine...

Because I saw that in a tweet on their account and I'm not buying it until I hear it from fivethirtyeight.  They're the definition of a fake pollster.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #16 on: June 20, 2020, 10:10:35 PM »
« Edited: June 20, 2020, 10:17:04 PM by Charles Booker »

NC is turning into an R state unlike AZ, FL and GA which are D leaning

It isn't going to trend D in this cycle, but it still looks like the sheer swing will outweigh any R trend here. The presidential and senatorial races are still tilt D, and the gubernatorial contest likely D.

NC went R in 2016, NC isnt a Tilt D state and it went R for Prez in 2012. It only went blue in 2016, due to Cooper and the transgender bathroom bill and Cooper didnt lwin in a andslide he won barely
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #17 on: June 21, 2020, 07:38:36 AM »

There should be a gentelmen's agreement:  No OANN polls or that pollster who Shook Nate at 538 banned (The Progress Campaign, I think?)

No. Let's include both - there are too few polls and if OANN are merely commissioning Gravis and releasing the surveys they like, they're not worse than internal polls.

ok but the latter was banned from 538 for faking data

That should get you on the Atlas sh**t list surely?

They were banned because their earlier, non-scientific surveys were judged when they (ostensibly) only wanted to submit their later surveys. 538 are in the process of re-vetting them.

Did that come from them (progress) or whichever intern answers the emails at 538?  Assholes didn't respond to mine...

Because I saw that in a tweet on their account and I'm not buying it until I hear it from fivethirtyeight.  They're the definition of a fake pollster.

Mostly them, but 538 did confirm to me that they were in talks.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #18 on: June 21, 2020, 07:39:51 AM »

NC is turning into an R state unlike AZ, FL and GA which are D leaning

It isn't going to trend D in this cycle, but it still looks like the sheer swing will outweigh any R trend here. The presidential and senatorial races are still tilt D, and the gubernatorial contest likely D.

NC went R in 2016, NC isnt a Tilt D state and it went R for Prez in 2012. It only went blue in 2016, due to Cooper and the transgender bathroom bill and Cooper didnt lwin in a andslide he won barely

NC isn't normally a tilt D state, but in this environment, the sheer margin should ensure the elections of Biden and Cunningham. Cooper's reelection should be guaranteed thanks to his approval rating being quite high since he took up the job (the benefits of competent incumbency).
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #19 on: June 21, 2020, 08:17:45 AM »

Yeah anything OANN is about 5 points further right than it actually is
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here2view
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« Reply #20 on: June 21, 2020, 08:45:36 AM »

Nice, that means Cunningham is winning.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
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« Reply #21 on: June 21, 2020, 08:58:41 PM »

NC is turning into an R state unlike AZ, FL and GA which are D leaning

It isn't going to trend D in this cycle, but it still looks like the sheer swing will outweigh any R trend here. The presidential and senatorial races are still tilt D, and the gubernatorial contest likely

NC went R in 2016, NC isnt a Tilt D state and it went R for Prez in 2012. It only went blue in 2016, due to Cooper and the transgender bathroom bill and Cooper didnt lwin in a andslide he won barely

NC isn't normally a tilt D state, but in this environment, the sheer margin should ensure the elections of Biden and Cunningham. Cooper's reelection should be guaranteed thanks to his approval rating being quite high since he took up the job (the benefits of competent incumbency).


Cooper is now tied with LT  Gov Forest, dont forget Cooper didnt win but by 5K votes in 2016
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FlyoverCoast
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« Reply #22 on: June 22, 2020, 01:05:01 AM »

NC is tilt R/lean R state. Dems are wasting their time.

Polling suggests that its pretty tight. Even if Rs keep it, they'll probably have to allocate a good chunk of resources towards it.
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