NC (Gravis/OANN) - Tillis +1

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

There should be a gentelmen's agreement:  No OANN polls or that pollster who Shook Nate at 538 banned (The Progress Campaign, I think?)

No. Let's include both - there are too few polls and if OANN are merely commissioning Gravis and releasing the surveys they like, they're not worse than internal polls.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

NC is turning into an R state unlike AZ, FL and GA which are D leaning

It isn't going to trend D in this cycle, but it still looks like the sheer swing will outweigh any R trend here. The presidential and senatorial races are still tilt D, and the gubernatorial contest likely D.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

There should be a gentelmen's agreement:  No OANN polls or that pollster who Shook Nate at 538 banned (The Progress Campaign, I think?)

No. Let's include both - there are too few polls and if OANN are merely commissioning Gravis and releasing the surveys they like, they're not worse than internal polls.

ok but the latter was banned from 538 for faking data

That should get you on the Atlas sh**t list surely?

They were banned because their earlier, non-scientific surveys were judged when they (ostensibly) only wanted to submit their later surveys. 538 are in the process of re-vetting them.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

There should be a gentelmen's agreement:  No OANN polls or that pollster who Shook Nate at 538 banned (The Progress Campaign, I think?)

No. Let's include both - there are too few polls and if OANN are merely commissioning Gravis and releasing the surveys they like, they're not worse than internal polls.

ok but the latter was banned from 538 for faking data

That should get you on the Atlas sh**t list surely?

They were banned because their earlier, non-scientific surveys were judged when they (ostensibly) only wanted to submit their later surveys. 538 are in the process of re-vetting them.

Did that come from them (progress) or whichever intern answers the emails at 538?  Assholes didn't respond to mine...

Because I saw that in a tweet on their account and I'm not buying it until I hear it from fivethirtyeight.  They're the definition of a fake pollster.

Mostly them, but 538 did confirm to me that they were in talks.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

NC is turning into an R state unlike AZ, FL and GA which are D leaning

It isn't going to trend D in this cycle, but it still looks like the sheer swing will outweigh any R trend here. The presidential and senatorial races are still tilt D, and the gubernatorial contest likely D.

NC went R in 2016, NC isnt a Tilt D state and it went R for Prez in 2012. It only went blue in 2016, due to Cooper and the transgender bathroom bill and Cooper didnt lwin in a andslide he won barely

NC isn't normally a tilt D state, but in this environment, the sheer margin should ensure the elections of Biden and Cunningham. Cooper's reelection should be guaranteed thanks to his approval rating being quite high since he took up the job (the benefits of competent incumbency).