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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  2020 Senate & House Election Polls (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  IA-Civiqs: Greenfield +3%
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Author Topic: IA-Civiqs: Greenfield +3%  (Read 948 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
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« on: June 09, 2020, 07:31:19 am »

https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_IA_banner_book_2020_06_ony3r9.pdf

Civiqs/Daily Kos
865 registered voters
June 6-8
MoE 3.7%

Greenfield 48%
Ernst 45%
Someone else 3%
Unsure 3%

Ernst underperforming Trump was not what I expected.
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #1 on: June 09, 2020, 07:33:20 am »

Why do CIVIQs polls have Biden so unpopular compared to about every other poll
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: June 09, 2020, 07:34:39 am »

Why do CIVIQs polls have Biden so unpopular compared to about every other poll

For some reason, all the Civiqs polls have his favorabilities really low. It would also appear though that they have the 18-34 group having a ridiculously unfavorable view - one that doesn't show up in other polls
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #3 on: June 09, 2020, 07:37:25 am »

Either way, people need to stop thinking this is Titanium Ernst. Most polls have shown her approval/favorables dropping, and it appears Dems fielded a good candidate in Greenfield.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #4 on: June 09, 2020, 07:43:25 am »

Yeah, I'm moving this to lean Ernst. The only thing keeping that from moving even closer to tossup (I had it at Likely R before) is the dearth of other polling evidence corroborating what's being suggested by this poll and the latest PPP survey.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #5 on: June 09, 2020, 08:02:18 am »

Second poll that has Greenfield ahead and MT Treasurer still says Ernst and even Collins are safe due to the R trend of IA. This is Tom Harkins seat, that Ernst won, due to Tom Harkin retirement in 2014, he along with Vilsack were elected in IA, before and Dems have 3 districts in IA and a 4th is competetive
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SnowLabrador
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« Reply #6 on: June 09, 2020, 08:27:31 am »

This, in a sample that has the Presidential race tied and voted for Reynolds by 3 points in 2018. Could it really happen?
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #7 on: June 09, 2020, 08:28:05 am »

Does anyone have any clue why Ernstís popularity is eroding? It seems to have come completely out of nowhere.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #8 on: June 09, 2020, 08:29:56 am »

I hope they will come out with a TX Senate poll, I would love to top off the wave with a win in TX
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #9 on: June 09, 2020, 09:27:07 am »

Does anyone have any clue why Ernstís popularity is eroding? It seems to have come completely out of nowhere.

Presumably people listened to her speak so slooowlllly on the news and lost brain cells
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YE
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« Reply #10 on: June 09, 2020, 09:32:41 am »

45% is terrible for an incumbent in a state like this.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #11 on: June 09, 2020, 09:56:50 am »

Does anyone have any clue why Ernstís popularity is eroding? It seems to have come completely out of nowhere.

Because she is a phony and her state is hit hard by Trump's trade wars.
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Speaker of the Lincoln Council S019
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« Reply #12 on: June 09, 2020, 10:19:29 am »

Lean R, but closer to Tossup than Likely R, at this point, Ernst in trouble probably means the GOP has already lost the Senate.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #13 on: June 09, 2020, 10:20:16 am »

I feel like I've seen a bunch of town hall viral clips from Ernst over the past year that are very unfavorable to her - she always speaks in vague terms and it always comes off badly.

This was just one of them, but I can't find the one particular one I feel like I'm thinking of. I think a lot of these moments have contributed to IA not being so favorable to her

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Southern Motherf***in' Catholic Republicans
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« Reply #14 on: June 09, 2020, 10:32:29 am »

Does anyone have any clue why Ernstís popularity is eroding? It seems to have come completely out of nowhere.

She's always been a pretty weak incumbent coasting on state trends.*  I've never understood why folks seemed to unironically think she was some sort of #UnbeatableTitan.  It's one thing to say Iowa is trending Republican and that it's reached the point where she's probably safe despite being a weak incumbent.  It's another to act like she's a strong candidate in her own right.  Anyway, Lean R at this point.

*And in 2014, on the combination of 2014 being a Republican wave and the astonishing incompetence of her Democratic opponent, Bernard Bateman.   
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #15 on: June 09, 2020, 10:32:51 am »

I think Iowa can be reasonably classified as Tossup/Lean Republican now. I still believe that Ernst has the advantage, but I clearly overestimated her political strength, nor did I consider the electoral implications that a competitive presidential race may have here. Iowa is by no means gone for Democrats like Indiana and Missouri are, and at heart remains a very volatile swing state. It is clear that Ernst is vulnerable, and if she loses, then the Senate is lost for Republicans.  
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #16 on: June 09, 2020, 10:35:03 am »

Her favorables are 39/52.
Ouch!
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Gass3268
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« Reply #17 on: June 09, 2020, 11:08:09 am »

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Pack The Courts
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« Reply #18 on: June 09, 2020, 01:07:03 pm »

Could Ernst actually be in danger? This poll seems credible
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Xing
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« Reply #19 on: June 09, 2020, 01:12:52 pm »

I remain skeptical of IA polls (Ernst remains favored, but weíll see what happens), but the trend isnít great for Ernst, nor is the fact that sheís underperforming Trump. Itís quite something how many Republican incumbents are underperforming Trump, actually. It would be nice to see a Selzer poll of this race.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #20 on: June 09, 2020, 02:02:52 pm »

I'm still cautious to call this anything more than Lean Republican. Ernst may have a bigger fight than we expected at the beginning, especially since Trump is tanking so badly at this point, but I still think she has the edge. However, Democrats should focus on this race to at least make the other side sweat. Flipping the seat would be great though and relieve some pressure from winning Georgia, Montana or North Carolina.
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Yoda
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« Reply #21 on: June 09, 2020, 02:04:01 pm »

IT'S HAPPENING
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Beto/Biden/Allred voter 4 Cornyn's NUT maps
IndyRep
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« Reply #22 on: June 09, 2020, 02:07:39 pm »

Looking at another 1980 at the presidential + Senate level if this is accurate.
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DTC
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« Reply #23 on: June 09, 2020, 02:11:14 pm »

Establishment Republicans tend to be more unpopular than Trump. There's a reason so many "noncontroversial" establishment Republicans are polling poorly.

They are unpopular because they have:
- Supported unpopular health care policy that showed they had no actual solutions to the ACA
- Supported an unpopular tax cut
- Have been supporting an unpopular Trump on 90-95% of what he says and does
- Are insufficiently authentic in their support of Trump to a couple of Trump base supporters

People should stop being so surprised about establishment Republicans polling poorly. This election is going to be really bad for Republicans if the environment does not change fast

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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #24 on: June 09, 2020, 05:53:45 pm »

Looking at another 1980 at the presidential + Senate level if this is accurate.

Wow! When it relates to Iowa, this is huge coming from you.

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