IA-Civiqs: Greenfield +3%
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 03:28:21 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 Senate & House Election Polls
  IA-Civiqs: Greenfield +3%
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: IA-Civiqs: Greenfield +3%  (Read 1842 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,771


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: June 09, 2020, 07:31:19 AM »

https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_IA_banner_book_2020_06_ony3r9.pdf

Civiqs/Daily Kos
865 registered voters
June 6-8
MoE 3.7%

Greenfield 48%
Ernst 45%
Someone else 3%
Unsure 3%

Ernst underperforming Trump was not what I expected.
Logged
TrendsareUsuallyReal
TrendsareReal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,098
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: June 09, 2020, 07:33:20 AM »

Why do CIVIQs polls have Biden so unpopular compared to about every other poll
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,736


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: June 09, 2020, 07:34:39 AM »

Why do CIVIQs polls have Biden so unpopular compared to about every other poll

For some reason, all the Civiqs polls have his favorabilities really low. It would also appear though that they have the 18-34 group having a ridiculously unfavorable view - one that doesn't show up in other polls
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,736


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: June 09, 2020, 07:37:25 AM »

Either way, people need to stop thinking this is Titanium Ernst. Most polls have shown her approval/favorables dropping, and it appears Dems fielded a good candidate in Greenfield.
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,771


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: June 09, 2020, 07:43:25 AM »

Yeah, I'm moving this to lean Ernst. The only thing keeping that from moving even closer to tossup (I had it at Likely R before) is the dearth of other polling evidence corroborating what's being suggested by this poll and the latest PPP survey.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,755
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: June 09, 2020, 08:02:18 AM »

Second poll that has Greenfield ahead and MT Treasurer still says Ernst and even Collins are safe due to the R trend of IA. This is Tom Harkins seat, that Ernst won, due to Tom Harkin retirement in 2014, he along with Vilsack were elected in IA, before and Dems have 3 districts in IA and a 4th is competetive
Logged
SnowLabrador
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,577
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: June 09, 2020, 08:27:31 AM »

This, in a sample that has the Presidential race tied and voted for Reynolds by 3 points in 2018. Could it really happen?
Logged
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,106
Canada


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -8.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: June 09, 2020, 08:28:05 AM »

Does anyone have any clue why Ernst’s popularity is eroding? It seems to have come completely out of nowhere.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,755
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: June 09, 2020, 08:29:56 AM »

I hope they will come out with a TX Senate poll, I would love to top off the wave with a win in TX
Logged
TrendsareUsuallyReal
TrendsareReal
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,098
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: June 09, 2020, 09:27:07 AM »

Does anyone have any clue why Ernst’s popularity is eroding? It seems to have come completely out of nowhere.

Presumably people listened to her speak so slooowlllly on the news and lost brain cells
Logged
YE
Modadmin
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,640


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: -0.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: June 09, 2020, 09:32:41 AM »

45% is terrible for an incumbent in a state like this.
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,611
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: June 09, 2020, 09:56:50 AM »

Does anyone have any clue why Ernst’s popularity is eroding? It seems to have come completely out of nowhere.

Because she is a phony and her state is hit hard by Trump's trade wars.
Logged
S019
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 18,248
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -4.13, S: -1.39

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: June 09, 2020, 10:19:29 AM »

Lean R, but closer to Tossup than Likely R, at this point, Ernst in trouble probably means the GOP has already lost the Senate.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,736


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: June 09, 2020, 10:20:16 AM »

I feel like I've seen a bunch of town hall viral clips from Ernst over the past year that are very unfavorable to her - she always speaks in vague terms and it always comes off badly.

This was just one of them, but I can't find the one particular one I feel like I'm thinking of. I think a lot of these moments have contributed to IA not being so favorable to her

Logged
Chancellor Tanterterg
Mr. X
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,201
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: June 09, 2020, 10:32:29 AM »

Does anyone have any clue why Ernst’s popularity is eroding? It seems to have come completely out of nowhere.

She's always been a pretty weak incumbent coasting on state trends.*  I've never understood why folks seemed to unironically think she was some sort of #UnbeatableTitan.  It's one thing to say Iowa is trending Republican and that it's reached the point where she's probably safe despite being a weak incumbent.  It's another to act like she's a strong candidate in her own right.  Anyway, Lean R at this point.

*And in 2014, on the combination of 2014 being a Republican wave and the astonishing incompetence of her Democratic opponent, Bernard Bateman.   
Logged
Calthrina950
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,937
United States


P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: June 09, 2020, 10:32:51 AM »

I think Iowa can be reasonably classified as Tossup/Lean Republican now. I still believe that Ernst has the advantage, but I clearly overestimated her political strength, nor did I consider the electoral implications that a competitive presidential race may have here. Iowa is by no means gone for Democrats like Indiana and Missouri are, and at heart remains a very volatile swing state. It is clear that Ernst is vulnerable, and if she loses, then the Senate is lost for Republicans.  
Logged
Landslide Lyndon
px75
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,611
Greece


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: June 09, 2020, 10:35:03 AM »

Her favorables are 39/52.
Ouch!
Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: June 09, 2020, 11:08:09 AM »

Logged
WD
Western Democrat
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,573
Ukraine


Political Matrix
E: -7.35, S: -0.35

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: June 09, 2020, 01:07:03 PM »

Could Ernst actually be in danger? This poll seems credible
Logged
Xing
xingkerui
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 30,303
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.52, S: -3.91

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: June 09, 2020, 01:12:52 PM »

I remain skeptical of IA polls (Ernst remains favored, but we’ll see what happens), but the trend isn’t great for Ernst, nor is the fact that she’s underperforming Trump. It’s quite something how many Republican incumbents are underperforming Trump, actually. It would be nice to see a Selzer poll of this race.
Logged
President Johnson
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,576
Germany


Political Matrix
E: -3.23, S: -4.70


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: June 09, 2020, 02:02:52 PM »

I'm still cautious to call this anything more than Lean Republican. Ernst may have a bigger fight than we expected at the beginning, especially since Trump is tanking so badly at this point, but I still think she has the edge. However, Democrats should focus on this race to at least make the other side sweat. Flipping the seat would be great though and relieve some pressure from winning Georgia, Montana or North Carolina.
Logged
Yoda
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,039
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: June 09, 2020, 02:04:01 PM »

IT'S HAPPENING
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: June 09, 2020, 02:07:39 PM »

Looking at another 1980 at the presidential + Senate level if this is accurate.
Logged
Holy Unifying Centrist
DTC
Atlas Politician
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,200


Political Matrix
E: 9.53, S: 10.54

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: June 09, 2020, 02:11:14 PM »

Establishment Republicans tend to be more unpopular than Trump. There's a reason so many "noncontroversial" establishment Republicans are polling poorly.

They are unpopular because they have:
- Supported unpopular health care policy that showed they had no actual solutions to the ACA
- Supported an unpopular tax cut
- Have been supporting an unpopular Trump on 90-95% of what he says and does
- Are insufficiently authentic in their support of Trump to a couple of Trump base supporters

People should stop being so surprised about establishment Republicans polling poorly. This election is going to be really bad for Republicans if the environment does not change fast

Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,547
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: June 09, 2020, 05:53:45 PM »

Looking at another 1980 at the presidential + Senate level if this is accurate.

Wow! When it relates to Iowa, this is huge coming from you.

Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.048 seconds with 14 queries.