Kentucky (PPP): McConnell +3 on Generic D

[wbrocks67]

McConnell (R) 47%
Generic D 44%

Not sure why they didn't poll McGrath specifically, esp since we've had literally no public polls on this race.

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/KentuckyResultsMay2020.pdf

[ON Progressive]

If even General Eric Democrat can’t beat McConnell, nobody is.

Safe R.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

It’s PPP. They probably did poll McGrath; they just published the numbers that looked best for dems.

[SnowLabrador]

If even General Eric Democrat can’t beat McConnell, nobody is.

Safe R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is exactly why I placed McGrath beating McConnell 47 to 44 is bad for McConnell

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Endorsing McGrath early instead of courting Rocky Adkins or Steve Beshear was a bad idea. (I suspect they couldn't have convinced Matt Jones to jump in, and don't blame them for not waiting after their failed attempt to launch his candidacy in 2018).

[President Johnson]

Not falling for this anymore. Kentucky is Safe Republican. End of story. As much as I'd love to see Cocaine Mitch defeated, it isn't happening.

[Xing]

Safe R, nothing to see here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R, nothing to see here.

Yeah right

[Roblox]

Gonna be awesome when boomer resistance democrats see this and say "MOSCOW MITCH IS ONLY UP 3!!!! TOSSUP" and waste money donating oodles to an un-winnable race.

[Pollster]

Some phenomenal regional data here:

-Trump approval in KY-06 is 39/55, McConnell is 30/58. Biden leads here 52/40, and Generic Dem leads 54/36. We could definitely see Josh Hicks run a more competitive race than it currently appears to be.

-Trump/McGrath Generic Dem voters appear to be in KY-04, where Trump leads 53/40 but McConnell is tied 44/44. More specifically, in the Cincinnati media market (mostly Kenton/Boone/Campbell, plus a few rurals) Trump leads 51/40, while McConnell leads 45/42 - a small lead he almost certainly owes to the rural counties in the DMA. Given Massie's notoriety, this district could be a sleeper for Dems on a very, very good night.

-The Lexington media market appears, as usual, to be a bellwether for the state. Trump leads here 54/40, McConnell 48/43. McGrath's high name recognition in the media market from 2018 is likely an early boon for her here.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Safe R, McConnell seems to be one of those people everybody in KY hates until it's time to vote.

[Suburbia]

Not falling for this anymore. Kentucky is Safe Republican. End of story. As much as I'd love to see Cocaine Mitch defeated, it isn't happening.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not falling for this anymore. Kentucky is Safe Republican. End of story. As much as I'd love to see Cocaine Mitch defeated, it isn't happening.

It's a Pandemic EC landslide not a 3.5 percent unemployment rate. We have a 20 percent unemployment rate

[wbrocks67]

Not sure why people are writing off KY so hard. I'm not saying McGrath is gonna win, but she raised a crap ton of money and Beshear proved you CAN win in KY, even under specific circumstances. That, with Trump's sagging approval, Biden on the ticket, and McConnell's low approval - this should easily be McConnell's closest race ever.

He only won by 15% in 2014's wave year. Yes, this is a presidential year, but still.

[anthonyjg]

Yeah not a chance. But McGrath is reputable enough and this race will be annoyingly close enough that tons of wasted dollars will be sent here.

[Alben Barkley]

Endorsing McGrath early instead of courting Rocky Adkins or Steve Beshear was a bad idea. (I suspect they couldn't have convinced Matt Jones to jump in, and don't blame them for not waiting after their failed attempt to launch his candidacy in 2018).

I don’t think Adkins or Beshear were ever going to run. Especially not Beshear, who seems to want to stay retired and already lost against McConnell once anyway. And from what I’ve heard (I’m acquainted with a couple people in Kentucky politics), Adkins didn’t run more for personal reasons than because the DSCC favored McGrath. He seems to likes his job working in the governor’s office anyway. Jones kept waffling on whether he was going to run or not for some time; in the end he seemed most interested in publicizing his anti-Mitch book.

I do think all would have been stronger candidates than McGrath, but I also don’t think any would actually be favored. Adkins would come closest; I could see him being kind of like a Manchin for Kentucky. Can’t really blame him for not wanting to go against McConnell though.

Some phenomenal regional data here:

-Trump approval in KY-06 is 39/55, McConnell is 30/58. Biden leads here 52/40, and Generic Dem leads 54/36. We could definitely see Josh Hicks run a more competitive race than it currently appears to be.

I haven’t seen Hicks run much of a race so far. I don’t know why people seem to think this district is no longer competitive after 2018. McGrath could have won then if she ran a better campaign (her “no negative ads” strategy really backfired). She might have even been able to win a rematch this year. Better chance than her Senate run anyway.

[NewYorkExpress]

Not falling for this anymore. Kentucky is Safe Republican. End of story. As much as I'd love to see Cocaine Mitch defeated, it isn't happening.

Honestly, I'd rather spend the money on McGrath rather than trying to save Doug Jones.

Both will likely lose, but if you are going to light money on fire, I think it's better to go on offense.

[Alben Barkley]

Not sure why people are writing off KY so hard. I'm not saying McGrath is gonna win, but she raised a crap ton of money and Beshear proved you CAN win in KY, even under specific circumstances. That, with Trump's sagging approval, Biden on the ticket, and McConnell's low approval - this should easily be McConnell's closest race ever.

He only won by 15% in 2014's wave year. Yes, this is a presidential year, but still.

McConnell only won his first race by 0.4% (it haunts me how close we were to dodging the bullet; probably he only won because it was 1984 and Reagan’s coattails swept him into office) so I highly doubt it could possibly be his closest race ever. Doubt it would even be closer than 1990 when he won by 4 or 2008 when he won by 6.

As for why people are writing it off, well, there’s a familiar pattern with McConnell races. Early polls show it close and McConnell as highly unpopular, so he appears vulnerable on the surface. Then he goes scorched earth in the campaign and by the time election day comes around he easily wins. That’s what happened in 2014. It was supposed to be closer than 15 points according to the polls; some even thought Grimes could actually win and some forecasters had it as a toss-up. Turned out to actually be McConnell’s second-biggest win. He also easily beat Steve Beshear by double digits in 1996, even as Clinton won the state and even though Beshear would later become a popular governor who won two landslides. The guy is just a cockroach who you can’t get rid of. Democrats keep lining up to kick the football like Charlie Brown, but of course Lucy always pulls it away. I wouldn’t be surprised if this race is closer than 2014 even with Trump on the ballot (Rand Paul’s race was closer in 2016), but he’s not gonna lose.

Andy Beshear’s win doesn’t say anything about McConnell’s chances by the way; Kentucky is a state where gubernatorial races have been the exception, not the rule, in that Democrats are much more competitive than they are in federal races. Indeed both Republican governors elected this century have been one-termers, along with every Republican governor in state history. And again, Beshear’s dad won by much more. Didn’t stop McConnell from both beating him directly and winning twice while he was governor.

[Roll Roons]

Not sure why people are writing off KY so hard. I'm not saying McGrath is gonna win, but she raised a crap ton of money and Beshear proved you CAN win in KY, even under specific circumstances. That, with Trump's sagging approval, Biden on the ticket, and McConnell's low approval - this should easily be McConnell's closest race ever.

He only won by 15% in 2014's wave year. Yes, this is a presidential year, but still.

Kentucky is much less red at the state level than at the federal level. And he was facing a sitting statewide elected official that year, rather than a gaffe-prone failed congressional candidate. Regardless of people's personal opinions of him, McConnell is arguably the most politically skilled Senate leader since LBJ. He ain't going down.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rassy continues to show Biden with a solid 5 pt lead for Biden doesnt bode well for Rs. They need the Rassy poll to show Biden losing and he isnt.

Rs chances of winning went out the window when Amash split from the race
 
Elaine Chao works for Trump and McConnell family works for Trump. Meaning McConnell is responsible for not doing g the proper testing on this virus. Out goes Trump, out goes McConnell and his wife Elaine Chao.

Every R said this race was safe R, Badger and French Republican.

It's not safe R now, Rs have a race on their hands

[Politician]

Safe R

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Gonna be awesome when boomer resistance democrats see this and say "MOSCOW MITCH IS ONLY UP 3!!!! TOSSUP" and waste money donating oodles to an un-winnable race.

Watch $20 million go to Kentucky and only $5 million go to Georgia. Oh wait, that already happened

[NewYorkExpress]

Gonna be awesome when boomer resistance democrats see this and say "MOSCOW MITCH IS ONLY UP 3!!!! TOSSUP" and waste money donating oodles to an un-winnable race.

Watch $20 million go to Kentucky and only $5 million go to Georgia. Oh wait, that already happened

I would be fine with those numbers, and the "Georgia" replaced by "Alabama". There really is no point to trying to prop up Doug Jones.

[Badger]

Safe R, McConnell seems to be one of those people everybody in KY hates until it's time to vote.

Or more accurately, they hate him less than most Democrats.