Kentucky (PPP): McConnell +3 on Generic D

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Gonna be awesome when boomer resistance democrats see this and say "MOSCOW MITCH IS ONLY UP 3!!!! TOSSUP" and waste money donating oodles to an un-winnable race.

Watch $20 million go to Kentucky and only $5 million go to Georgia. Oh wait, that already happened

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

What's particularly sad about this: it shows that the right candidate could take him out. Rocky Adkins would get at least 45% vs. Mitch, & I'd even go so far as to say that he'd actually have a shot at winning this too, especially given the GOP's recent slew of failures & Mitch's notorious unpopularity (particularly among ancestral Democrats in eastern KY).

But even if/when Biden wins, I doubt he's gonna be able to push McGrath over the finish line, & once the Democrats are back in power, there won't be another chance as good as this one to kick Mitch out (at least, since I doubt that there'll be another virus under a Republican president that'll particularly expose his abject incompetence). This is the perfect time to have fielded a genuinely strong candidate against him, & the party failed.

While I agree that McGrath lost a winnable race in 2018 and has been gaffe-prone in this one, it's easy to forget that KY-06 was one of the toughest districts that Democrats actually made competitive in 2018 (Trump did better here than in OK-05, SC-01, ME-02, and UT-04 in the two party vote, and no district where Trump got >55% went D besides MN-07 for obvious reasons) and McGrath did it as a novice candidate with no political resume or vote-getting experience, beating a popular local mayor in a primary to do it and without running any negative ads. Agreed she's not the best possible recruit, but hard to say she's not formidable.

This makes Conor Lamb’s win in the special election so impressive. It was by far the reddest House seat that Democrats gained in 2018, and Trump got 58% in that seat pre-redraw.