Kentucky (PPP): McConnell +3 on Generic D (user search)
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  Kentucky (PPP): McConnell +3 on Generic D (search mode)
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Author Topic: Kentucky (PPP): McConnell +3 on Generic D  (Read 2149 times)
Pollster
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« on: May 20, 2020, 01:41:55 PM »
« edited: May 20, 2020, 01:58:38 PM by Pollster »

Some phenomenal regional data here:

-Trump approval in KY-06 is 39/55, McConnell is 30/58. Biden leads here 52/40, and Generic Dem leads 54/36. We could definitely see Josh Hicks run a more competitive race than it currently appears to be.

-Trump/McGrath Generic Dem voters appear to be in KY-04, where Trump leads 53/40 but McConnell is tied 44/44. More specifically, in the Cincinnati media market (mostly Kenton/Boone/Campbell, plus a few rurals) Trump leads 51/40, while McConnell leads 45/42 - a small lead he almost certainly owes to the rural counties in the DMA. Given Massie's notoriety, this district could be a sleeper for Dems on a very, very good night.

-The Lexington media market appears, as usual, to be a bellwether for the state. Trump leads here 54/40, McConnell 48/43. McGrath's high name recognition in the media market from 2018 is likely an early boon for her here.
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Pollster
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« Reply #1 on: May 20, 2020, 08:08:46 PM »

What's particularly sad about this: it shows that the right candidate could take him out. Rocky Adkins would get at least 45% vs. Mitch, & I'd even go so far as to say that he'd actually have a shot at winning this too, especially given the GOP's recent slew of failures & Mitch's notorious unpopularity (particularly among ancestral Democrats in eastern KY).

But even if/when Biden wins, I doubt he's gonna be able to push McGrath over the finish line, & once the Democrats are back in power, there won't be another chance as good as this one to kick Mitch out (at least, since I doubt that there'll be another virus under a Republican president that'll particularly expose his abject incompetence). This is the perfect time to have fielded a genuinely strong candidate against him, & the party failed.

While I agree that McGrath lost a winnable race in 2018 and has been gaffe-prone in this one, it's easy to forget that KY-06 was one of the toughest districts that Democrats actually made competitive in 2018 (Trump did better here than in OK-05, SC-01, ME-02, and UT-04 in the two party vote, and no district where Trump got >55% went D besides MN-07 for obvious reasons) and McGrath did it as a novice candidate with no political resume or vote-getting experience, beating a popular local mayor in a primary to do it and without running any negative ads. Agreed she's not the best possible recruit, but hard to say she's not formidable.
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