Oregon 4th district will flip R

[NOVA Green]

So latest updates from OR CD-04:



Numbers have been narrowing since my ED / E-Night Update...

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=393352.msg7727029#msg7727029

Not enough to do it, but def gotta check at where all the votes are coming from once we get final County / Precinct numbers...

Still Koch brothers and funders for Skarlatos lost money on their bet, while meanwhile he has name recognition to run in 2022 once the districts shift...

[Tekken_Guy]

Skarlatos is almost certainly joining congress in 2022.

[NOVA Green]

DeFazio's numbers appear to be expaning in CD-04 as many of the final results continue to roll in...



Defazio:     +2,271    (59.4%)
Skarlatos:  +1,382    (36.1%)
OTHERS:    + 170      ( 4.4%)

TOTAL NEW:  3,823

Again note that that others were overwhelmingly 3rd Party Votes for a Pacific Green Candidate in a part of Downstate Oregon with a strong Environmentalist Community.

I have a bunch of initial opinions / impressions after looking at the Douglas County Precinct numbers, but DeFazio appears to have threaded the needle and out-performed Biden in the places he needed to, while meanwhile Merkley might have performed higher in certain places in terms of % while many Trump Voters sat out the OR-SEN election rather than vote for the Q-Anon "Cray Cray".

Believe it or not folks, even hardcore Republicans in down-state Oregon are not all absolutely insane, and are fully capable of rationale thought and tactical voting....

[Figueira]

How is redistricting going to affect this district?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

How is redistricting going to affect this district?

Oreagon is gaining a seat but the democrats probably have to draw another republican vote sink, it's not going to be competitive again but he might be vulnerable in a primary with no right-wing areas to balance out Eugene.

[Mr.Phips]

Skarlatos is almost certainly joining congress in 2022.

Redistricting will make this a safer district for Dems.

[Tekken_Guy]

Skarlatos is almost certainly joining congress in 2022.

Redistricting will make this a safer district for Dems.

I meant with the new SW Oregon R sink.

[Mr.Phips]

Skarlatos is almost certainly joining congress in 2022.

Redistricting will make this a safer district for Dems.

I meant with the new SW Oregon R sink.

If Dems decide to do that.  They could probably just shift some R areas of the current OR-04 SW into OR-02 and grab bend from OR-02.  That would make OR-04 safe.

[Left Wing]

Skarlatos is almost certainly joining congress in 2022.

Redistricting will make this a safer district for Dems.

I meant with the new SW Oregon R sink.

You can draw a pretty easy 6-0 out of Oregon, I’m not sure if they’ll be that aggressive or not but we’ll see.

[Mr.Phips]

Skarlatos is almost certainly joining congress in 2022.

Redistricting will make this a safer district for Dems.

I meant with the new SW Oregon R sink.

You can draw a pretty easy 6-0 out of Oregon, I’m not sure if they’ll be that aggressive or not but we’ll see.

There constitutional limits that make that impossible.  5-1 is definitely doable by unpacking OR-03 to bolster OR-05 and create a new Dem district.  OR-04 can pick up Deschetes county while losing the strongly Republican counties in the southwest to OR-02.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Skarlatos is almost certainly joining congress in 2022.

obviously you have never heard of redistricting.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

How is redistricting going to affect this district?

he might be vulnerable in a primary with no right-wing areas to balance out Eugene.

Huh? DeFazio literally helped found the Congressional Progressive Caucus. He's well to the left of the median Democratic voter. That said, he is old and retirement is definitely on the horizon.

[vileplume]

Skarlatos is almost certainly joining congress in 2022.

Redistricting will make this a safer district for Dems.

I meant with the new SW Oregon R sink.

You can draw a pretty easy 6-0 out of Oregon, I’m not sure if they’ll be that aggressive or not but we’ll see.

There constitutional limits that make that impossible.  5-1 is definitely doable by unpacking OR-03 to bolster OR-05 and create a new Dem district.  OR-04 can pick up Deschetes county while losing the strongly Republican counties in the southwest to OR-02.

Wouldn't that be a double crossing of the Cascades, which I thought was the thing that wasn't allowed?

Assuming that all of Oregon east of the Cascades will remain in OR-2, if the Dems are going to draw at least semi-'sensible' districts it would probably be better to concede the new district to the GOP. Splitting up their areas of strength in South West Oregon without gerrymandering them into Portland and its suburbs is the kind of thing that may backfire spectacularly. Honestly looking at the numbers a 'mild gerrymander' is probably the worst thing the Oregon Dems could do as such a map may only a bad election away from going 3-3. If I was them I would either aggressively gerrymander (Maryland-style) to get 5-1, or if they don't fancy that give the GOP a SW Oregon seat for a secure 4-2.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Skarlatos is almost certainly joining congress in 2022.

Redistricting will make this a safer district for Dems.

I meant with the new SW Oregon R sink.

You can draw a pretty easy 6-0 out of Oregon, I’m not sure if they’ll be that aggressive or not but we’ll see.

There constitutional limits that make that impossible.  5-1 is definitely doable by unpacking OR-03 to bolster OR-05 and create a new Dem district.  OR-04 can pick up Deschetes county while losing the strongly Republican counties in the southwest to OR-02.

Wouldn't that be a double crossing of the Cascades, which I thought was the thing that wasn't allowed?

Assuming that all of Oregon east of the Cascades will remain in OR-2, if the Dems are going to draw at least semi-'sensible' districts it would probably be better to concede the new district to the GOP. Splitting up their areas of strength in South West Oregon without gerrymandering them into Portland and its suburbs is the kind of thing that may backfire spectacularly. Honestly looking at the numbers a 'mild gerrymander' is probably the worst thing the Oregon Dems could do as such a map may only a bad election away from going 3-3. If I was them I would either aggressively gerrymander (Maryland-style) to get 5-1, or if they don't fancy that give the GOP a SW Oregon seat for a secure 4-2.

You can fairly easily draw a map that’s 5-1 with every district being fairly safe for dems. Just crack up Clackamas County a fair bit and make the new district from like Albany to the Portland suburbs.
 

[OBD]

Skarlatos is almost certainly joining congress in 2022.

Redistricting will make this a safer district for Dems.

I meant with the new SW Oregon R sink.

You can draw a pretty easy 6-0 out of Oregon, I’m not sure if they’ll be that aggressive or not but we’ll see.

There constitutional limits that make that impossible.  5-1 is definitely doable by unpacking OR-03 to bolster OR-05 and create a new Dem district.  OR-04 can pick up Deschetes county while losing the strongly Republican counties in the southwest to OR-02.

Wouldn't that be a double crossing of the Cascades, which I thought was the thing that wasn't allowed?

Assuming that all of Oregon east of the Cascades will remain in OR-2, if the Dems are going to draw at least semi-'sensible' districts it would probably be better to concede the new district to the GOP. Splitting up their areas of strength in South West Oregon without gerrymandering them into Portland and its suburbs is the kind of thing that may backfire spectacularly. Honestly looking at the numbers a 'mild gerrymander' is probably the worst thing the Oregon Dems could do as such a map may only a bad election away from going 3-3. If I was them I would either aggressively gerrymander (Maryland-style) to get 5-1, or if they don't fancy that give the GOP a SW Oregon seat for a secure 4-2.

You can fairly easily draw a map that’s 5-1 with every district being fairly safe for dems. Just crack up Clackamas County a fair bit and make the new district from like Albany to the Portland suburbs.
 

That map illegally crosses the Cascades, sadly. From my experience, I've found the best way to do a 5-1 is to have a coastal district with tails into Portland and Ashland-Medford, as this allows the 4th to shift north and keep Democratic voters in Corvallis.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Skarlatos is almost certainly joining congress in 2022.

Redistricting will make this a safer district for Dems.

I meant with the new SW Oregon R sink.

You can draw a pretty easy 6-0 out of Oregon, I’m not sure if they’ll be that aggressive or not but we’ll see.

There constitutional limits that make that impossible.  5-1 is definitely doable by unpacking OR-03 to bolster OR-05 and create a new Dem district.  OR-04 can pick up Deschetes county while losing the strongly Republican counties in the southwest to OR-02.

Wouldn't that be a double crossing of the Cascades, which I thought was the thing that wasn't allowed?

Assuming that all of Oregon east of the Cascades will remain in OR-2, if the Dems are going to draw at least semi-'sensible' districts it would probably be better to concede the new district to the GOP. Splitting up their areas of strength in South West Oregon without gerrymandering them into Portland and its suburbs is the kind of thing that may backfire spectacularly. Honestly looking at the numbers a 'mild gerrymander' is probably the worst thing the Oregon Dems could do as such a map may only a bad election away from going 3-3. If I was them I would either aggressively gerrymander (Maryland-style) to get 5-1, or if they don't fancy that give the GOP a SW Oregon seat for a secure 4-2.

You can fairly easily draw a map that’s 5-1 with every district being fairly safe for dems. Just crack up Clackamas County a fair bit and make the new district from like Albany to the Portland suburbs.
 

That map illegally crosses the Cascades, sadly. From my experience, I've found the best way to do a 5-1 is to have a coastal district with tails into Portland and Ashland-Medford, as this allows the 4th to shift north and keep Democratic voters in Corvallis.

The other option is to put ALL of Josephine/Jackson in with the Eastern OR district and move Hood River and The Dalles over into metro Portland.

[Squidward500]

In one way this thread was redeemed.

I calculated it’s final PVI out to R+1 so there’s that lol

[vileplume]

Skarlatos is almost certainly joining congress in 2022.

Redistricting will make this a safer district for Dems.

I meant with the new SW Oregon R sink.

You can draw a pretty easy 6-0 out of Oregon, I’m not sure if they’ll be that aggressive or not but we’ll see.

There constitutional limits that make that impossible.  5-1 is definitely doable by unpacking OR-03 to bolster OR-05 and create a new Dem district.  OR-04 can pick up Deschetes county while losing the strongly Republican counties in the southwest to OR-02.

Wouldn't that be a double crossing of the Cascades, which I thought was the thing that wasn't allowed?

Assuming that all of Oregon east of the Cascades will remain in OR-2, if the Dems are going to draw at least semi-'sensible' districts it would probably be better to concede the new district to the GOP. Splitting up their areas of strength in South West Oregon without gerrymandering them into Portland and its suburbs is the kind of thing that may backfire spectacularly. Honestly looking at the numbers a 'mild gerrymander' is probably the worst thing the Oregon Dems could do as such a map may only a bad election away from going 3-3. If I was them I would either aggressively gerrymander (Maryland-style) to get 5-1, or if they don't fancy that give the GOP a SW Oregon seat for a secure 4-2.

You can fairly easily draw a map that’s 5-1 with every district being fairly safe for dems. Just crack up Clackamas County a fair bit and make the new district from like Albany to the Portland suburbs.
 

That map illegally crosses the Cascades, sadly. From my experience, I've found the best way to do a 5-1 is to have a coastal district with tails into Portland and Ashland-Medford, as this allows the 4th to shift north and keep Democratic voters in Corvallis.

The other option is to put ALL of Josephine/Jackson in with the Eastern OR district and move Hood River and The Dalles over into metro Portland.

I don't think they'll be able to do that as Hood River County and Wasco County are East of the Cascades and thus are locked into OR-2.

What they could do, however, is try to make OR-2 more winnable by making it drop Jackson County and replacing it with the Multnomah cities of Gresham and Troutdale. However the district would still lean GOP.

[lfromnj]

Skarlatos is almost certainly joining congress in 2022.

Redistricting will make this a safer district for Dems.

I meant with the new SW Oregon R sink.

You can draw a pretty easy 6-0 out of Oregon, I’m not sure if they’ll be that aggressive or not but we’ll see.

There constitutional limits that make that impossible.  5-1 is definitely doable by unpacking OR-03 to bolster OR-05 and create a new Dem district.  OR-04 can pick up Deschetes county while losing the strongly Republican counties in the southwest to OR-02.

Wouldn't that be a double crossing of the Cascades, which I thought was the thing that wasn't allowed?

Assuming that all of Oregon east of the Cascades will remain in OR-2, if the Dems are going to draw at least semi-'sensible' districts it would probably be better to concede the new district to the GOP. Splitting up their areas of strength in South West Oregon without gerrymandering them into Portland and its suburbs is the kind of thing that may backfire spectacularly. Honestly looking at the numbers a 'mild gerrymander' is probably the worst thing the Oregon Dems could do as such a map may only a bad election away from going 3-3. If I was them I would either aggressively gerrymander (Maryland-style) to get 5-1, or if they don't fancy that give the GOP a SW Oregon seat for a secure 4-2.

You can fairly easily draw a map that’s 5-1 with every district being fairly safe for dems. Just crack up Clackamas County a fair bit and make the new district from like Albany to the Portland suburbs.
 

That map illegally crosses the Cascades, sadly. From my experience, I've found the best way to do a 5-1 is to have a coastal district with tails into Portland and Ashland-Medford, as this allows the 4th to shift north and keep Democratic voters in Corvallis.

The other option is to put ALL of Josephine/Jackson in with the Eastern OR district and move Hood River and The Dalles over into metro Portland.

I don't think they'll be able to do that as Hood River County and Wasco County are East of the Cascades and thus are locked into OR-2.

What they could do, however, is try to make OR-2 more winnable by making it drop Jackson County and replacing it with the Multnomah cities of Gresham and Troutdale. However the district would still lean GOP.

You can also draw an arm into downtown Portland with OR02 and make it barely vote for Clinton

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I don't think they'll be able to do that as Hood River County and Wasco County are East of the Cascades and thus are locked into OR-2.

There's probably wiggle room with Hood River. It can go both ways.

[GALeftist]

If the Oregon Dems are not completely incompetent the new map will be 5-1, it's not particularly difficult to do. Sorry not sorry Skarlatos.

[lfromnj]

Oregon Rs could leave the  state again .

[GALeftist]

Oregon Rs could leave the  state again .

Without addressing how sad it is that that is a tactic don't the maps just get punted to the Democratic Secretary of State in that case? Or am I misremembering

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Oregon Rs could leave the  state again .

Then Dems could just quorum-bust Georgia.

[lfromnj]

Oregon Rs could leave the  state again .

Then Dems could just quorum-bust Georgia.

This only works in Oregon. Dems tried it in Texas in 2005.

They also successfully did it in Oregon in 2001.
If a map doesn't pass legislative goes to the SOS but congressional is done by the courts or atleast thats what I Found from 2001.