Oregon 4th district will flip R

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Republicans are running a jacked, handsome 27 year old military veteran against an old democratic incumbent who hasn’t faced a serious challenge in decades. In addition, the Republican challenger has out raised DeFazio in Q1. Finally, he has a heroic backstory where he and 2 other friends stopped a terrorist attack, and Obama complimented him over it.

OR-04 was Hillary +0.1. This is the 3rd most likely flip in November 2020.

[Holmes]

Bookmarking this.

[MT Treasurer]

If elected, Alek Skarlatos would be second only to Senator Gary Peters with the sex appeal he radiates.

[Storr]

Not that it matters that much in a Congressional race, but he did lose his 2018 race for the Douglas County Commission.

[Orwell]

De Fazio has survived 1994, 2010, and 2014 I don't see how he will lose this time, even though his last opponent (who's ran against him the past 5 elections) usually only hits 40% and not much higher. I'll take De Fazio 55-45.

[Lognog]

He literally out preformed Hillary by 20 points in 2016. He is not going to lose to a no name, even if Trump squeezes out a win in this district

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

He literally out preformed Hillary by 20 points in 2016. He is not going to lose to a no name, even if Trump squeezes out a win in this district

Alek isn’t a no name. He’s been fundraising a ton of money. He’s already been fundraising more than Defazio Lots of democratic candidates were no names with no political experience in 2018, yet did extremely well.

Also Defazio outperformed by 20 pts because his opponent was a total joke who’s run like 8 times.

[SnowLabrador]

Press X to doubt.

In all seriousness, the Republicans have a lot of other, more attractive targets this cycle. They're not going to spend on this one.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Press X to doubt.

In all seriousness, the Republicans have a lot of other, more attractive targets this cycle. They're not going to spend on this one.

Republicans aren’t flipping the house without this district.

I bet no one here was predicting CA-25 to flip before the polls said so.

[jamestroll]

Press X to doubt.

In all seriousness, the Republicans have a lot of other, more attractive targets this cycle. They're not going to spend on this one.

Republicans aren’t flipping the house without this district.

I bet no one here was predicting CA-25 to flip before the polls said so.

Can we stop pretending that candidate quality, campaigns, and circumstances do not matter?

In general 2016/18 trends are very real and in neutral it seems that elections follow them strongly. Like WI-07 literally just did.

CA-25 being won by Garcia does not = the house flips back to the GOP in November. Too many winnable seats for the GOP had flawed candidates and there are many suburban districts that the GOP is still very vulnerable in.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Republicans are running a jacked, handsome 27 year old military veteran against an old democratic incumbent who hasn’t faced a serious challenge in decades. In addition, the Republican challenger has out raised DeFazio in Q1. Finally, he has a heroic backstory where he and 2 other friends stopped a terrorist attack, and Obama complimented him over it.

OR-04 was Hillary +0.1. This is the 3rd most likely flip in November 2020.

DeFazio has survived even the worst of R wave years. He outperforms Democratic canidates in the district. Furthermore, very few people actually care about if someone is a veteran, and it only solidifies people who were alreay gonna vote for him. Also, while being young may be appealing to some people, most people don't vote for someone based off of looks.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

DeFazio isn't losing. However, I'm pretty sure this will be the last time he runs which will make 2022 another story.

[Xing]

If 2020 is a red wave, sure. Otherwise, no.

[Left Wing]

Skarlatos has endorsed Jo Rae Perkins, so his odds are slim.

[Pollster]

The Republicans would be foolish to spend money flipping a seat that Democrats will have tota power over redrawing.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The Republicans would be foolish to spend money flipping a seat that Democrats will have tota power over redrawing.

Not if they think it's part of a realistic path to retaking the House majority, if they're still seriously considering that.

[S019]

I know that the OP is memeing, but Spark and SN probably unironically think this. Anyways, Safe D remains Safe D, once DeFazio retires though, this will be very competitive.

[Gracile]

One thing that complicates this seat for Republicans is this area has a high left-wing third party presence (it was one of Stein's best CDs in 2016 and there were a lot of write-ins as well) who would probably veer toward DeFazio.

It's possible that this seat could flip in a 2022 Republican wave midterm, though.

[Suburbia]

He's very handsome, yes, I can see him winning.

OR-04 will flip R.

Skarlatos will probably be on the GOP veep list, but is he Trumpy enough in the future?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

I know that the OP is memeing, but Spark and SN probably unironically think this. Anyways, Safe D remains Safe D, once DeFazio retires though, this will be very competitive.

> safe D

What lmao

[𝕭𝖆𝖕𝖙𝖎𝖘𝖙𝖆 𝕸𝖎𝖓𝖔𝖑𝖆]

Press X to doubt.

In all seriousness, the Republicans have a lot of other, more attractive targets this cycle. They're not going to spend on this one.

Republicans aren’t flipping the house without this district.

I bet no one here was predicting CA-25 to flip before the polls said so.

Can we stop pretending that candidate quality, campaigns, and circumstances do not matter?

In general 2016/18 trends are very real and in neutral it seems that elections follow them strongly. Like WI-07 literally just did.

CA-25 being won by Garcia does not = the house flips back to the GOP in November. Too many winnable seats for the GOP had flawed candidates and there are many suburban districts that the GOP is still very vulnerable in.

The funny thing about the Wisconsin 7th special is that most counties voted similarly to 2016, but the 3 ones that Hillary Clinton managed to retain in 2016 had Obama-level margins instead.

[We Live in Black and White]

And then everyone fell for the troll bait.

[NOVA Green]

FULL CONFESSION: I AM A VOTER IN OR CD-04!

My opinions may well not be accurate nor representative of the realities on the ground, but DTC is raising an obvious question, which involves further analysis and discussion, and certainly should not be derided in pursuit of knowledge and data.

Although the title is perhaps "Shock Value", especially when the statement of the OP in his subsequent first post, and a few subsequent posts simply posit on 5/18 that without this seat, the Republicans will not flip the US House...

So although I do not believe that OR CD-04 will flip Republican in 2020, let us at least examine and explore a bit further, since this district has been a subject of significant discussion in various places on Atlas / Talk Elections for some time, since Trump's 2016 performance within the district....

Let us start with Total Votes for OR-CD '04 US-HOUSE by Major Party from 2012 > 2018, and look at the changes in DEM Margins between elections, changes in RAW Total Votes (TVs) by Party, as well as the RAW Vote TOT SWING TO/FROM the Republican Candidate.



Here is an Excel Version of the data for another look...



1.) Incumbent OR-CD-04 (D) Defazio has seen his raw DEM margins decrease every year from 2012 to 2018.

2.) Defazio has gone from a +72k RAW Vote Margin in 2012 to +56k RAW Vote Margin in 2018.

3.) Theoretically the Republican Candidate for CD-04 in a 2016 GE Environment where 400k individuals vote for a US House Race, would need to somehow flip at a bare minimum of 30k Votes, even assuming a strong defection to the Green Party Candidate...

4.) Where would these votes come from?

A.) Let's start with the Vote Share by County for US-House Elections 2012 > 2018.



1.) We see two counties advancing as % of Vote Share:

     a.)  Lane County goes from  46.9% of the Vote Share in '12 to 47.6% of the Vote Share in '18. with continual increases every two years.

     b.) Linn County goes from 13.9% of the Vote Share in '12 to 14.6% of the Vote Share in '18, with continual increases every two years.

    c.) Douglas County goes from 13.6% of the Vote Share in '12 and drops to 13.1% in 2018 (Continual decrease every year).

    d.) Benton County has experienced a gradual trickle from 10.3% of the County Vote Share in '12 to 9.9% in '18.

      e.) Coos County has actually been holding steady from '12 > '18 and a 7.8% drops to only a 7.7%...

      f.) Josephine County: trailing in the winds a bit, but still running 4%...

       g.) Curry County: Even smaller at only 3%, but in a close election

4.) Now let's look at the County Level results for OR CD-04 in 2018 (+14.1% Defazio), which was not only the most recent, but also Defazio's closest election with since the 2010 redistricting lines.



5.) So Defazio's current predominant strength is based upon overwhelmingly Democratic results in just two Counties, Lane and Benton Counties.

Meanwhile he is losing Douglas and Josephine Counties by 20%, and Linn by 14%, with Coos and Curry Counties in the 5-9% range.

5.) In order for this district to become competitive, one or two or a mixture of both would have to happen:

      A.) Defazio's margins would have to collapse considerably within Lane County, and possibly to a lesser extent smaller Benton County.

     B.) Skarlatos (R) would have to significantly expand over Robinson's numbers elsewhere within CD-04.

6.) Let's take a look at Lane County, which is rapidly approaching 50% of the CD-04 Vote Share within the District to start with...



       A.) Defazio's overall RAW Vote margin has remained constant in Lane County since 2012, ranging around 60k lead over his Republican opponent, although numbers were slightly lower in 2014, which saw significantly lower voter turnout for the Congressional race.

      B.) Considering the high amount of votes we saw in 2018, it is a bit questionable in my mind if we would see lower RAW TOT Vote numbers from Lane County in 2020.

It is theoretically possible that COVID-19 might reduce the Student vote at University of Oregon, although the campus will be open in the Fall of 2020, with with overall population growth, the University students represent only a relatively small faction of the Total County Vote Share at large, so even a drop of a few thousands Undergrads would be unlikely to move the needle.

     C.) Let's take a look at Defazio's % within Lane County to see if there are potential weaknesses there...



       i.) Defazio has consistently ranged from 64-67% of the CD-04 Vote from 2012 > 2018. The numbers were at the lowest range in 2016, when the Pacific Green Candidate scored 4.8% of the vote within Lane County.

     ii.) The Republican challenger has been stuck at 29-32% of the vote, and what little movement there has been does not appear to represent any significant trends against Defazio.

    D.) Naturally the next step would be to compare the DEM/PUB US House % numbers in 2012 against the PRES numbers....



        i.) DEM PRES Candidates significantly under-performed Defazio in both 2012 and 2016 within Lane County AND PUB PRES Candidates somewhat over-performed CD-04 candidate in both elections.

       ii.) Defazio ran 7.5% in 2012 and 10.1% above Obama '12 and HRC '16 TOT DEM %, and Robinson ran 5.1% under in 2016 and 3.4% under in 2018.

      iii.)  3rd Party PRES candidates played a major role here in 2016, with an extremely strong Green, Write-In (Likely mostly Bernie), as well as a Johnson vote...

D.) Lane County Oregon has a fair amount of precincts, but here is a link to some work I did awhile back on a more detailed historical look at Presidential Election Results by place to start with in a tale of six parts...

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5447733#msg5447733

E.) So let's say that Skarlatos (R) hits the Trump 35.0% or even the Romney 36.4% numbers where would these votes come from to reduce what is a massive DEM RAW Vote Margin Bank within the District?

      i.) Obviously we would need to look at precincts and places where Trump significantly over-performed Art Robinson in '16.

    ii.) We can rule out the 3rd Party "spoiler" on the DEM PRES side that way, and do a bit more apples to apples comparison.

       a.) Eugene, Oregon (46% of County Vote Share in '16) does not appear to be such a place.



           1.) Any potential gains for Skarlatos within Eugene should be treated with a giant shaker of salt, a couple massive bong hits of 30% THC strains, and healthy degrees of skepticism all around.

           2.)  Springfield (14% of '16 County Vote Share) might appear more fruitful...



              i.) 2/8 of these precincts (2238 & 2344) had only 100-200 voters vs the 3.8k>5.2k TOT House Voters in the remaining precincts.

           ii.) Still 3/8 Precinct where Trump got 40%+ are located in East Springfield, not to mention where Defazio significantly over-performed HRC by wide margins....

          iii.) Although it's been a few years since I spent much time in the neighborhood, had a friend who worked at the Veneer Mill, which burned to the ground in '14.

https://pages.registerguard.com/springfield-plywood-and-veneer-mill-fire/

        b.) Rural / Uninc Metro Eugene-Springfield & Small Towns



      1.) Bit of an eyesore---  Drop uninc North Eugene coding, and start looking at "R" (for Rural) and some of the smaller towns and communities, to look for potential Republican Opportunities in CD-04 in Lane County.

     2.) Rural Lane County accounted for 22% of the County Vote Share and went (50-40% Trump).

        Again in theory, there should be room for a Republican House Candidate to expand, plus you are looking at 22k 2016 PRES voters...

        i.) We see significant Trump over-performance in places such as the the rural Coastal Mountain Range, and definitely in Eastern and South-Eastern Lane County over the PUB House candidate....

     3.) Other Municipalities account for 10% of the 2016 PRES Vote Share,,,

       i.) Trump performed extremely well in places such as Cottage Grove, Florence, Creswell, and Junction City, although this does not mean he won all of these smaller towns and Cities.

       ii.) It is entirely plausible that much of this was a direct result of a campaign appearance at the time of the OR Republican Primary where he stressed economic protection and Forest Management Items while Kasich was still on the ballot.

      iii.) Still if Skarlatos runs a serious contest against Defazio, he will need to challenge him on his own home territory (Lane County), and not simply rely on phantom Trump '16 voters to push him over the top....

Next stop another County, but wanted to at least provide a brief summary of the opportunities and challenges a Republican Candidate might face in OR CD-04 based upon historical election results, as opposed to simply a superficial analysis based on % of people that voted for HRC vs % of people that voted for DJT....

[Lognog]

I think he loses, but there's a very good possibility that Oregon's new district will be Republican leaning and Alek Skarlatos can run there in 2022 (probably a republican wave)

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

FULL CONFESSION: I AM A VOTER IN OR CD-04!

My opinions may well not be accurate nor representative of the realities on the ground, but DTC is raising an obvious question, which involves further analysis and discussion, and certainly should not be derided in pursuit of knowledge and data.

Although the title is perhaps "Shock Value", especially when the statement of the OP in his subsequent first post, and a few subsequent posts simply posit on 5/18 that without this seat, the Republicans will not flip the US House...

So although I do not believe that OR CD-04 will flip Republican in 2020, let us at least examine and explore a bit further, since this district has been a subject of significant discussion in various places on Atlas / Talk Elections for some time, since Trump's 2016 performance within the district....

Let us start with Total Votes for OR-CD '04 US-HOUSE by Major Party from 2012 > 2018, and look at the changes in DEM Margins between elections, changes in RAW Total Votes (TVs) by Party, as well as the RAW Vote TOT SWING TO/FROM the Republican Candidate.



Here is an Excel Version of the data for another look...



1.) Incumbent OR-CD-04 (D) Defazio has seen his raw DEM margins decrease every year from 2012 to 2018.

2.) Defazio has gone from a +72k RAW Vote Margin in 2012 to +56k RAW Vote Margin in 2018.

3.) Theoretically the Republican Candidate for CD-04 in a 2016 GE Environment where 400k individuals vote for a US House Race, would need to somehow flip at a bare minimum of 30k Votes, even assuming a strong defection to the Green Party Candidate...

4.) Where would these votes come from?

A.) Let's start with the Vote Share by County for US-House Elections 2012 > 2018.



1.) We see two counties advancing as % of Vote Share:

     a.)  Lane County goes from  46.9% of the Vote Share in '12 to 47.6% of the Vote Share in '18. with continual increases every two years.

     b.) Linn County goes from 13.9% of the Vote Share in '12 to 14.6% of the Vote Share in '18, with continual increases every two years.

    c.) Douglas County goes from 13.6% of the Vote Share in '12 and drops to 13.1% in 2018 (Continual decrease every year).

    d.) Benton County has experienced a gradual trickle from 10.3% of the County Vote Share in '12 to 9.9% in '18.

      e.) Coos County has actually been holding steady from '12 > '18 and a 7.8% drops to only a 7.7%...

      f.) Josephine County: trailing in the winds a bit, but still running 4%...

       g.) Curry County: Even smaller at only 3%, but in a close election

4.) Now let's look at the County Level results for OR CD-04 in 2018 (+14.1% Defazio), which was not only the most recent, but also Defazio's closest election with since the 2010 redistricting lines.



5.) So Defazio's current predominant strength is based upon overwhelmingly Democratic results in just two Counties, Lane and Benton Counties.

Meanwhile he is losing Douglas and Josephine Counties by 20%, and Linn by 14%, with Coos and Curry Counties in the 5-9% range.

5.) In order for this district to become competitive, one or two or a mixture of both would have to happen:

      A.) Defazio's margins would have to collapse considerably within Lane County, and possibly to a lesser extent smaller Benton County.

     B.) Skarlatos (R) would have to significantly expand over Robinson's numbers elsewhere within CD-04.

6.) Let's take a look at Lane County, which is rapidly approaching 50% of the CD-04 Vote Share within the District to start with...



       A.) Defazio's overall RAW Vote margin has remained constant in Lane County since 2012, ranging around 60k lead over his Republican opponent, although numbers were slightly lower in 2014, which saw significantly lower voter turnout for the Congressional race.

      B.) Considering the high amount of votes we saw in 2018, it is a bit questionable in my mind if we would see lower RAW TOT Vote numbers from Lane County in 2020.

It is theoretically possible that COVID-19 might reduce the Student vote at University of Oregon, although the campus will be open in the Fall of 2020, with with overall population growth, the University students represent only a relatively small faction of the Total County Vote Share at large, so even a drop of a few thousands Undergrads would be unlikely to move the needle.

     C.) Let's take a look at Defazio's % within Lane County to see if there are potential weaknesses there...



       i.) Defazio has consistently ranged from 64-67% of the CD-04 Vote from 2012 > 2018. The numbers were at the lowest range in 2016, when the Pacific Green Candidate scored 4.8% of the vote within Lane County.

     ii.) The Republican challenger has been stuck at 29-32% of the vote, and what little movement there has been does not appear to represent any significant trends against Defazio.

    D.) Naturally the next step would be to compare the DEM/PUB US House % numbers in 2012 against the PRES numbers....



        i.) DEM PRES Candidates significantly under-performed Defazio in both 2012 and 2016 within Lane County AND PUB PRES Candidates somewhat over-performed CD-04 candidate in both elections.

       ii.) Defazio ran 7.5% in 2012 and 10.1% above Obama '12 and HRC '16 TOT DEM %, and Robinson ran 5.1% under in 2016 and 3.4% under in 2018.

      iii.)  3rd Party PRES candidates played a major role here in 2016, with an extremely strong Green, Write-In (Likely mostly Bernie), as well as a Johnson vote...

D.) Lane County Oregon has a fair amount of precincts, but here is a link to some work I did awhile back on a more detailed historical look at Presidential Election Results by place to start with in a tale of six parts...

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5447733#msg5447733

E.) So let's say that Skarlatos (R) hits the Trump 35.0% or even the Romney 36.4% numbers where would these votes come from to reduce what is a massive DEM RAW Vote Margin Bank within the District?

      i.) Obviously we would need to look at precincts and places where Trump significantly over-performed Art Robinson in '16.

    ii.) We can rule out the 3rd Party "spoiler" on the DEM PRES side that way, and do a bit more apples to apples comparison.

       a.) Eugene, Oregon (46% of County Vote Share in '16) does not appear to be such a place.



           1.) Any potential gains for Skarlatos within Eugene should be treated with a giant shaker of salt, a couple massive bong hits of 30% THC strains, and healthy degrees of skepticism all around.

           2.)  Springfield (14% of '16 County Vote Share) might appear more fruitful...



              i.) 2/8 of these precincts (2238 & 2344) had only 100-200 voters vs the 3.8k>5.2k TOT House Voters in the remaining precincts.

           ii.) Still 3/8 Precinct where Trump got 40%+ are located in East Springfield, not to mention where Defazio significantly over-performed HRC by wide margins....

          iii.) Although it's been a few years since I spent much time in the neighborhood, had a friend who worked at the Veneer Mill, which burned to the ground in '14.

https://pages.registerguard.com/springfield-plywood-and-veneer-mill-fire/

        b.) Rural / Uninc Metro Eugene-Springfield & Small Towns



      1.) Bit of an eyesore---  Drop uninc North Eugene coding, and start looking at "R" (for Rural) and some of the smaller towns and communities, to look for potential Republican Opportunities in CD-04 in Lane County.

     2.) Rural Lane County accounted for 22% of the County Vote Share and went (50-40% Trump).

        Again in theory, there should be room for a Republican House Candidate to expand, plus you are looking at 22k 2016 PRES voters...

        i.) We see significant Trump over-performance in places such as the the rural Coastal Mountain Range, and definitely in Eastern and South-Eastern Lane County over the PUB House candidate....

     3.) Other Municipalities account for 10% of the 2016 PRES Vote Share,,,

       i.) Trump performed extremely well in places such as Cottage Grove, Florence, Creswell, and Junction City, although this does not mean he won all of these smaller towns and Cities.

       ii.) It is entirely plausible that much of this was a direct result of a campaign appearance at the time of the OR Republican Primary where he stressed economic protection and Forest Management Items while Kasich was still on the ballot.

      iii.) Still if Skarlatos runs a serious contest against Defazio, he will need to challenge him on his own home territory (Lane County), and not simply rely on phantom Trump '16 voters to push him over the top....

Next stop another County, but wanted to at least provide a brief summary of the opportunities and challenges a Republican Candidate might face in OR CD-04 based upon historical election results, as opposed to simply a superficial analysis based on % of people that voted for HRC vs % of people that voted for DJT....