OR 2020 Megathread:

[Canis]

Decided to start a thread on all of Oregons elections
OR-4 Republican candidate Alex Skarlatos just came out with a pretty good ad heres my ratings of all of the oregon races
https://twitter.com/alekskarlatos/status/1303437957345538048
OR-Sen: Safe D
OR-1: Safe D
OR-2: Safe R
OR-3 Safe D
OR-4: Likely D
OR-5:  Safe D

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

actually really really good

[Storr]

Decided to start a thread on all of Oregons elections
OR-4 Republican candidate Alex Skarlatos just came out with a pretty good ad heres my ratings of all of the oregon races
https://twitter.com/alekskarlatos/status/1303437957345538048
OR-Sen: Safe D
OR-1: Safe D
OR-2: Safe R
OR-3 Safe D
OR-4: Likely D
OR-5:  Safe D

The ad had my attention until the "Do you like living in poverty?" "Nope" exchange. It's like something out of a campaign ad parody. Also lmao at his "I actually hate politics" line.
I was wondering why he mentioned he was from Oregon so many times, but then I realized it's because DeFazio is originally from Massachusetts. Meanwhile Skarlatos is originally from.....California.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Decided to start a thread on all of Oregons elections
OR-4 Republican candidate Alex Skarlatos just came out with a pretty good ad heres my ratings of all of the oregon races
https://twitter.com/alekskarlatos/status/1303437957345538048
OR-Sen: Safe D
OR-1: Safe D
OR-2: Safe R
OR-3 Safe D
OR-4: Likely D
OR-5:  Safe D

The ad had my attention until the "Do you like living in poverty?" "Nope" exchange. It's like something out of a campaign ad parody. Also lmao at his "I actually hate politics" line.

You have to look at it through the lens of someone who isn't a political geek though. I think the ad is quite good at appealing to those who may not necessarily be the most engaged in politics.

[WD]

Skarlatos will lose by around 10-12 points. Likely D, although this will definitely be competitive in 2022.

[Storr]

Decided to start a thread on all of Oregons elections
OR-4 Republican candidate Alex Skarlatos just came out with a pretty good ad heres my ratings of all of the oregon races
https://twitter.com/alekskarlatos/status/1303437957345538048
OR-Sen: Safe D
OR-1: Safe D
OR-2: Safe R
OR-3 Safe D
OR-4: Likely D
OR-5:  Safe D

The ad had my attention until the "Do you like living in poverty?" "Nope" exchange. It's like something out of a campaign ad parody. Also lmao at his "I actually hate politics" line.

You have to look at it through the lens of someone who isn't a political geek though. I think the ad is quite good at appealing to those who may not necessarily be the most engaged in politics.

I don't find it bad, but I do find it incredibly fake.

[NOVA Green]

Maybe this thread should be merged?

CD-04 is obviously a "Ground Zero" place in Oregon when it comes to Trump vs Biden Proxy Wars...

Spent quite a bit of time on that topic with Lane, Benton, and Linn County (Incomplete).   Got distracted on a few other topics, plus looked like lack of interest so never even went "Down South" to spend more time in various joints in Small Town Linn County, let alone Douglas and Coos Counties....

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=374199.0

Couldn't find it easily on the Internet right now, but saw something on the local news earlier today where a DeFazio ad is showcasing his Military Family History from WW II, Vietnam, etc....

Feel free to post Atlas Tribe, but pretty much guaranteed got local media saturation...

Pls track down and post....

[Astatine]

Skarlatos will lose by around 10-12 points. Likely D, although this will definitely be competitive in 2022.

Will this district even exist in this form in 2022? As far as I can remember, Oregon will gain a district after this year's census. How would that affect this district?

[WD]

Skarlatos will lose by around 10-12 points. Likely D, although this will definitely be competitive in 2022.

Will this district even exist in this form in 2022? As far as I can remember, Oregon will gain a district after this year's census. How would that affect this district?

I’m not completely sure about this tbh. If Oregon gains a seat, it’ll be interesting to see what is done. Oregon doesn’t have a Redistricting commission so I assume most of the focus will be on shoring up the seats we currently have. OR-06 may be created in Portland or another heavily D area. DeFazio can be made safer, but he’d definitely be the most vulnerable out if all OR Dems. Overall however the districts will look quite different. I think the map will likely be 5-1, 4-1-1, or 4-2 D.

[NOVA Green]

Politico article on the CD-04 Election:

Dem chairman's race tightens as GOP 'hero' pulls in millions
Some Democrats worry that a loss by Rep. Peter Defazio could hurt Joe Biden’s infrastructure plans if he wins the White House....The tight race is a far cry from DeFazio’s usual reelection: The 17-term congressman has faced the same GOP challenger — a proponent of “alt science" who collects urine samples for study — for five elections in a row. DeFazio has beat that opponent, Art Robinson, by double digits every cycle. But this year is different for a host of reasons, including a celebrity GOP candidate who competed on "Dancing with the Stars," starred as himself in a Clint Eastwood-directed film and has become one of Republicans’ only hopes for a pick-up in a terrible year for the party.

DeFazio’s district has also suffered from historic wildfires, forcing thousands to flee. Before that, Eugene saw weeks of racial justice demonstrations — some of which morphed into rioting as Black Lives Matters supporters clashed with counterprotesters.

Another problem for Democrats: Thousands of students at the University of Oregon — who typically cast votes from Eugene — are learning remotely this fall amid the coronavirus pandemic.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/16/defazio-house-transportation-race-tightens-429599

Interesting article, and still not sure I buy the whole "college students learning remotely argument", although I guess in a squeaker it could tilt the scales.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Skarlatos will lose by around 10-12 points. Likely D, although this will definitely be competitive in 2022.

Will this district even exist in this form in 2022? As far as I can remember, Oregon will gain a district after this year's census. How would that affect this district?

I’m not completely sure about this tbh. If Oregon gains a seat, it’ll be interesting to see what is done. Oregon doesn’t have a Redistricting commission so I assume most of the focus will be on shoring up the seats we currently have. OR-06 may be created in Portland or another heavily D area. DeFazio can be made safer, but he’d definitely be the most vulnerable out if all OR Dems. Overall however the districts will look quite different. I think the map will likely be 5-1, 4-1-1, or 4-2 D.

I'd put money on DeFazio retiring in 2022. With that in mind, I think the fourth safe D district might be drawn in the mid-valley instead of SWOR with it's unfavorable trends.

[NOVA Green]

Oregonian Article:

The big news in Oregon’s 4th District congressional race is that this fall’s contest is a genuine race that is attracting unprecedented sums of campaign money.

After facing only token opposition over his 34 years in Congress, Peter DeFazio, D-Springfield, faces surprisingly stiff competition from Alek Skarlatos, a 28-year-old Roseburg native, internationally recognized hero and political novice. Skarlatos vaulted out of obscurity in 2015 after he and two other U.S. soldiers risked their lives to foil an attempted terrorist attack on a French train. And, bolstered by Republican' high hopes for him, a flood of cash is pouring in. The same man who couldn’t get elected to the Douglas County Commission in 2018 has raised $3.9 million for his congressional race, according to the most recent filings with the Federal Election Commission.

DeFazio has raised $3.2 million, according to federal filings. Skarlatos' fundraising advantage was particularly apparent in the most recent quarter, DeFazio conceded. The challenger raised $2.4 million to the incumbent’s $1.3 million.

The Cook Report, an influential political publication, in early October switched its rating of the Skarlatos-DeFazio contest from “likely Democratic” to the less certain “lean Democratic.” If Skarlatos were to take out an experienced war horse like DeFazio, it would provide Republicans a much-needed bright spot in what some are predicting will be a “blood bath” for their party at the hands of Democrats.

“There’s a sleeper race bucking the trend in southwestern Oregon, where a bona fide anti-terrorism hero is running against 34-year Democratic incumbent,” the Cook article stated. “A month out, both parties now regard the race as competitive and are spending accordingly.”

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2020/10/28-year-old-political-novice-skarlatos-closes-in-on-incumbent-defazio-in-4th-district-congressional-race.html

Sounds like a ton of media hype to me, but hell national media is picking it up, air wars going on, and even Atlas is trying to look at this like a PUB pickup...

[NOVA Green]

Previously I have provided updates for Oregon Ballots returned on another thread.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=392429.msg7682160#msg7682160

Still, naturally we need to examine EV in Oregon from not just a Statewide level, but additionally from a County Level of analysis.

Let's just start with the Registered Voter by Party Graph from 2020:



Now let's look at these numbers as a % of RV in a Chart Format:



DEMS appear to be killing it in EV numbers at a Statewide level...



Still, this only tells a sliver of a much larger story...

Here are the Turnout number to date in Oregon by Partisan Registration:



DEMs currently lead in all Counties over PUBs by double digits in most counties.

This will likely adjust the closer we get to election day, since now there are about as many REG PUB ballots outstanding as DEM ballots outstanding.

Still this map tells a story about the "Enthusiasm Gap to date" when it comes to RV by Party.

Now let's look at the total votes returned to date by partisan registration (B&W Version).



Now let's look at the total votes returned to date by partisan registration (Colorized Version).



These numbers are not good at all for Republicans in Oregon, and not just in heavy Republican 2nd Congressional District strongholds such as Jackson and Deschutes County.

Democrats should not be leading Marion County by +10% (not to mention neighboring Polk County).

Republicans should not be up only 3.7% in Linn County.

WTF... DEMs are still leading in Coos County by 4.6%, not to mention Columbia County by 14.8%?

Not sure if we call many folks "shy Trump voters" anymore, perhaps more like "lazy Trump voters from '16 who don't like what they are seeing and ready to come on back home to the Democratic Party....

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Oregonian Article:

The big news in Oregon’s 4th District congressional race is that this fall’s contest is a genuine race that is attracting unprecedented sums of campaign money.

After facing only token opposition over his 34 years in Congress, Peter DeFazio, D-Springfield, faces surprisingly stiff competition from Alek Skarlatos, a 28-year-old Roseburg native, internationally recognized hero and political novice. Skarlatos vaulted out of obscurity in 2015 after he and two other U.S. soldiers risked their lives to foil an attempted terrorist attack on a French train. And, bolstered by Republican' high hopes for him, a flood of cash is pouring in. The same man who couldn’t get elected to the Douglas County Commission in 2018 has raised $3.9 million for his congressional race, according to the most recent filings with the Federal Election Commission.

DeFazio has raised $3.2 million, according to federal filings. Skarlatos' fundraising advantage was particularly apparent in the most recent quarter, DeFazio conceded. The challenger raised $2.4 million to the incumbent’s $1.3 million.

The Cook Report, an influential political publication, in early October switched its rating of the Skarlatos-DeFazio contest from “likely Democratic” to the less certain “lean Democratic.” If Skarlatos were to take out an experienced war horse like DeFazio, it would provide Republicans a much-needed bright spot in what some are predicting will be a “blood bath” for their party at the hands of Democrats.

“There’s a sleeper race bucking the trend in southwestern Oregon, where a bona fide anti-terrorism hero is running against 34-year Democratic incumbent,” the Cook article stated. “A month out, both parties now regard the race as competitive and are spending accordingly.”

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2020/10/28-year-old-political-novice-skarlatos-closes-in-on-incumbent-defazio-in-4th-district-congressional-race.html

Sounds like a ton of media hype to me, but hell national media is picking it up, air wars going on, and even Atlas is trying to look at this like a PUB pickup...

Question for you, NOVA: why was a county like Coos County so strongly Democratic before the late nineties?

[NOVA Green]

Oregonian Article:

The big news in Oregon’s 4th District congressional race is that this fall’s contest is a genuine race that is attracting unprecedented sums of campaign money.

After facing only token opposition over his 34 years in Congress, Peter DeFazio, D-Springfield, faces surprisingly stiff competition from Alek Skarlatos, a 28-year-old Roseburg native, internationally recognized hero and political novice. Skarlatos vaulted out of obscurity in 2015 after he and two other U.S. soldiers risked their lives to foil an attempted terrorist attack on a French train. And, bolstered by Republican' high hopes for him, a flood of cash is pouring in. The same man who couldn’t get elected to the Douglas County Commission in 2018 has raised $3.9 million for his congressional race, according to the most recent filings with the Federal Election Commission.

DeFazio has raised $3.2 million, according to federal filings. Skarlatos' fundraising advantage was particularly apparent in the most recent quarter, DeFazio conceded. The challenger raised $2.4 million to the incumbent’s $1.3 million.

The Cook Report, an influential political publication, in early October switched its rating of the Skarlatos-DeFazio contest from “likely Democratic” to the less certain “lean Democratic.” If Skarlatos were to take out an experienced war horse like DeFazio, it would provide Republicans a much-needed bright spot in what some are predicting will be a “blood bath” for their party at the hands of Democrats.

“There’s a sleeper race bucking the trend in southwestern Oregon, where a bona fide anti-terrorism hero is running against 34-year Democratic incumbent,” the Cook article stated. “A month out, both parties now regard the race as competitive and are spending accordingly.”

https://www.oregonlive.com/politics/2020/10/28-year-old-political-novice-skarlatos-closes-in-on-incumbent-defazio-in-4th-district-congressional-race.html

Sounds like a ton of media hype to me, but hell national media is picking it up, air wars going on, and even Atlas is trying to look at this like a PUB pickup...

Question for you, NOVA: why was a county like Coos County so strongly Democratic before the late nineties?

Excellent question Penn_Quaker_Girl.

Rather than attempt to rewrite some of my previous commentary, let me refer you to a few posts that I made on my Oregon 2016 Presidential Election Results thread regarding Coos County, which was perhaps one of the classic examples of an Ancestral Democratic FDR New Deal type County, assuming that you have not yet read them, and am more than happy to continue the conversation further (Bolded the FDR New Deal for emphasis    ):

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5413788#msg5413788

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5754596#msg5754596

(You will need to click on the image links to open them up this thread was created before the "purge" of images on Atlas after Dave got sued by some scam artist lawyer).

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=252085.msg5756302#msg5756302

Let's just close with an image of the ship leaving the Port of Coos Bay, which I believe is looking North by North East towards the Unincorporated community of Glasgow, Oregon.

[NOVA Green]

It has been a Week since I have provided updates on Oregon Turnout by Party and County (So much other stuff going on).

Here is my last update on Turnout in OR by Party and Registered Voters by Party by County from 10/26/20 AM Numbers:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=393352.msg7689080#msg7689080

Naturally, I have continued to provide Statewide Daily Updates on this thread:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=407463.msg7708063#msg7708063



So without further adieux...

Here are the Turnout number to date in Oregon by Partisan Registration 10/30/20 by County:



Statewide Turnout by County numbers... (DEM CUM vs PUB TO RAW Votes by Party REG).



Turnout Differential by DEM / PUB by County Map:



Comments coming shortly....

[NOVA Green]

Here are the latest numbers as of this Morning in terms of total EVs by County by Party REG.



1.) Again note that Josephine County is a heavily Republican County, and Grants Pass is part of CD-02 and not CD-04, so this overstates Republican overall performance to date.

2.) NAV / 3rd Party Voters will skew heavily Democratic in Benton and Lane Counties, which collectively account for over 50% of the Total Misc numbers.

3.) The chance for a Skarlotos win likely depend upon somehow being able to overwhelmingly win NAV voters throughout the district, especially in Linn and Douglas Counties...

4.) I remain skeptical that CD-04 will flip, but figured that I would at least provide the latest numbers of EV by party REG.

[NOVA Green]

Looks like DeFazio is comfortably winning, as I have been stating for Months,,,