2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: California

[Tekken_Guy]

CA-45 loses western Irvine to CA-48 and takes in Yorba Linda on the latest draft. Who might run in CA-45?

Young Kim, esp since she wants to avoid a primary battle with Steel presumably.

And I’d assume Porter would run in 48.

[TML]

Christy Smith lost the current CA-25 by a razor-thin margin. She should be able to win a CA-25 nested within LA County with relative ease. (provided she is main Dem candidate)

She would be an atrocious candidate. You don't make fun of a person's military service.

Quaye Quartey is a veteran, looks like a solid candidate. Dara Stransky also looks solid. Literally anyone besides Smith can pick up this seat.

Yeah, Smith has had two chances and she blew both. I don't see why she deserves a third.

I agree that she's a lousy candidate, but this particular line of argument is problematic in that it would suggest that, among other things, Jim Hagedorn should never have been elected to his current Congressional seat because he failed three times before winning it.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Christy Smith lost the current CA-25 by a razor-thin margin. She should be able to win a CA-25 nested within LA County with relative ease. (provided she is main Dem candidate)

It's only 3 points more D, I strongly doubt she would even win a Biden midterm

3 points more D is enough to make Garcia disfavored even in a Biden midterm.

That presumes the cycle is less than 3 points more R, I imagine.

[Greedo punched first]

Who runs in CA-45? Perhaps Donald Wagner or Harry Sidhu?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Christy Smith lost the current CA-25 by a razor-thin margin. She should be able to win a CA-25 nested within LA County with relative ease. (provided she is main Dem candidate)

It's only 3 points more D, I strongly doubt she would even win a Biden midterm

3 points more D is enough to make Garcia disfavored even in a Biden midterm.

That presumes the cycle is less than 3 points more R, I imagine.

If we get a R+3 shift, it won't be equal all over the country. It depends on elasticity.
Is northern Los Angeles county more elastic than the nation as a whole? I would presume it would be smaller due to Latino voters being hard to move and the presence of lots of hardline white liberals and conservatives. In general the CA interior  is more driven by turnout differentials than anything else.
So Garcia would need more of an R shift than that, in much the same way a R candidate for a D-held open seat in the MW would need less of one.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://twitter.com/WeDrawTheLines/status/1455402451771674625

It's... marginally better than the previous viz? Progress!

Viz 1, 45-7 Biden



Viz 2, 46-6 Biden



https://davesredistricting.org/join/1ec729a6-1868-4d7d-a0c4-16f254943881


Getting closer to the beautiful 49-3!

What is the COI justification for splitting the San Diego East County three ways and denying Republicans even a single seat?

[Oryxslayer]

What is the COI justification for splitting the San Diego East County three ways and denying Republicans even a single seat?

I guess because the East County as a region...doesn't exist demographically? Empty space with few people. It's currently GOP cause the outlying suburbs east of SD are paired without other areas that are comparatively better for the GOP to the north like Temecula and Escondido. The proposed seat reflects these COI's different, fully shifting it into a seat anchored by the inland cities between OC and SD. Its the carve-up of the East SD suburbs, between the CA-53 successor (which previously also has a bunch of the more D-favoring suburbs) and the CA-50 successor that shifts things towards the democrats.

[Greedo punched first]

Are Garden Grove and Seal Beach more likely to be in CA-39 or CA-48?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Anyone know why in the proposed CD map precinct splitting is insane despite the large population deviations? Why would the commissioners go out of their way to make mostly seemingly random precincts in a draft map when their population deviations are often p far off?

[lfromnj]

Anyone know why in the proposed CD map precinct splitting is insane despite the large population deviations? Why would the commissioners go out of their way to make mostly seemingly random precincts in a draft map when their population deviations are often p far off?

Precincts seem to be nice and square, city lines on the other hand.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Anyone know why in the proposed CD map precinct splitting is insane despite the large population deviations? Why would the commissioners go out of their way to make mostly seemingly random precincts in a draft map when their population deviations are often p far off?

Precincts seem to be nice and square, city lines on the other hand.

But I mean it’s not even like the precinct splits follow any sort of city or obvious road lines in a lot of cases. If you want an example look at the Fresno Clovis part of CA-23 where it borders the new 22. It just seems so random

As you’ve said California precincts are generally nice to work with too, with a few exception of the geographically large mountain precincts next to or in more developed areas, this isn’t a case where precincts splitting is even a must (unlike say Hamilton County Ohio)

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

The new map potentially prevents a Democratic flip by managing the backlash to Young Kim’s homophobia:

https://www.twitter.com/rpyers/status/1468795184372609025
Good news for Democrats as her across-the-ballot negative coattails will hurt Republicans across the nation.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Uh I wouldn’t exactly call Kim’s district a GOP vote sink; looks like it only went to Trump by 5 or so. Steele’s looks like Biden + 4ish and Porter like Biden + 14 or smtg

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Uh I wouldn’t exactly call Kim’s district a GOP vote sink; looks like it only went to Trump by 5 or so. Steele’s looks like Biden + 4ish and Porter like Biden + 14 or smtg

That is a GOP vote sink by Orange County/Young Kim standards. Young Kim currently represents a Biden +10 district where she won by 1.2, and Orange County in general and Northeast OC/Korean-American Southeast LA were both favorable/very favorable to ticket-splitting in 2020, so giving Kim a Trump seat of any kind, let alone a Trump +5 one, is a "sink."

[Kamala's side hoe]

Uh I wouldn’t exactly call Kim’s district a GOP vote sink; looks like it only went to Trump by 5 or so. Steele’s looks like Biden + 4ish and Porter like Biden + 14 or smtg

That is a GOP vote sink by Orange County/Young Kim standards. Young Kim currently represents a Biden +10 district where she won by 1.2, and Orange County in general and Northeast OC/Korean-American Southeast LA were both favorable/very favorable to ticket-splitting in 2020, so giving Kim a Trump seat of any kind, let alone a Trump +5 one, is a "sink."

Yeah there’s no way that Eastern Orange County + Yorba Linda + Chino Hills district isn’t a R vote sink

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

Following the commission today, apparently this is what their current configs look like, roughly:



Did a little rough estimation in DRA and this is what it spit out, very rough because the lines on the stream are awful:
NOCOAST: Biden +11
SAVANAANA: Biden +6
SANTANA: Biden +21
OCSBLA: Biden +2? Ended up with a big surplus so take this with a grain of salt.
BEAVICVAL is incomplete because I didn't get enough of a look at it.




I'd reckon they're getting closer, trying for deviations of 0-1 right now.

[lfromnj]

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::64d5b36c-00a6-4a3d-900d-ad9b7c2711b4

Seems like one  iteration. Using uniform swing Levin would only have won by 1.2 points in 2020!

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

Mocked up the iterations from today in DRA, take with a massive grain of salt because I'm lazy and most of these are off by quite a bit

Garcia District: Clinton +11 -> Biden +15
Big SB district: Trump +14.5 -> Trump +11.5
Crachkhead Corona-Coachella district: Trump + 6 -> Trump +1.5
Loopy Little Saigon district: Clinton +13 -> Biden +6
Coastal OC district (Steel/Porter): Clinton +7.5 -> Biden +11
East OC pack: Trump +4 -> Biden +2
North SD district (Levin): Clinton +1.3 -> Biden +7.5
Riverside-Imperial district(Ruiz): Clinton +17 -> Biden +15
Issa district: Trump +20 -> Trump +12 (!!)

Left out three SD districts and the rest of the LA metro districts because they're all deep blue.

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::64d5b36c-00a6-4a3d-900d-ad9b7c2711b4

Seems like the current iteration. Using uniform swing Levin would only have won by 1.2 points in 2020!

I think they uploaded an old version, the line drawing today had a Steel/Porter district from HB to Irvine, checked it out and it hadn't had today's iterations worked up

[ProgressiveModerate]

That Corona district looks like a child scribbled a blob.

I think they’re trying to create a COI which doesn’t really exist in this case causing that district to kinda become leftovers. SoCal is not an easy place to redistrict but they seriously need to fix that up

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Are these drafts pre-citizen comment?

[Pedocon Theory is not a theory]

They published the iterations from yesterday, getting ready to do more socal line drawing today.



I think I got the districts like 99% right-ish, just got lazy with blocks

https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/190ZSNlmId7m_mlvGysuN5_kcXNpaOt2N

[Thunder98]

The SoCal seats are ugly as hell.

[Brittain33]

BEAVICAL is an abomination.

[lfromnj]

BEAVICAL is an abomination.

Basically Beavical takes in white areas in East Riverside which I think is the Coachella Valley but  SECAL takes in mixed exurbs in central Riverside. However said white areas are famously gay and very Democratic while the exurbs are actually R.

Basically an attempt to boost the hispanic population of SECAL.

Still quite streching a majority minority seat as a Coachella valley seat is way more compact and logical even if it may not fully maximize hispanic %