Could Montana be as close as it was in 2008 this year?

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Recently polls have shown that Montana could be a dark horse state for Joe Biden and the Democrats. Could Montana be close like it was in 2008 or is it too early to tell or is it ridiculous to think that?

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think it "could" but the chance is obviously very small. The Ds have a good ground game in MT, and they'll be a lot of money invested in the state because of house, senaet, and governors race. Tester got way more: about 75k more raw votes than Hillary did in 2016, and most of that was from Democrats and Indies, very few Rs actually crosed tha aisle to vote for him despite popular belief. Biden COULD come close to winning MT in very specific circumstances, and is almost bound to do better than Hillary based off of 2018. I doubt there will be many Tester-Trump voters, as Biden isn't much more liberal than Tester is. Likely R for now; time will tell if it'll become safe for Trump

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems are gonna win the Senate race but Gov race and Prez race may go R

[Skill and Chance]

I genuinely have no idea what's going on in Montana.  It could be Trump +30 or it could be Trump +3 and Bullock +3.

[SaneDemocrat]

Close in the way a 16 seed leads a 1 seed at the half march madness and loses by 15.

[Podgy the Bear]

If the economic situation is as bad or worse than 2008 as Election Day approaches, it will be close. Don't think that Biden will win, but it will be close.

[ON Progressive]

I think single digits is plausible, but I don’t think Biden will do quite as well as Obama 2008.

[BigVic]

I got MT as a R for the Gubernatorial election

[HAMMER77777]

Dems are gonna win the Senate race but Gov race and Prez race may go R

Not seeing it.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

I got MT as a R for the Gubernatorial election

That depends on who gets their respective nominations. AG Fox probably defeats the daughter of former Rep. Williams, but Lt. Governor Cooney probably has a good shot against religious nutbar (and criminal pugilist) Rep. Gianforte. 

[Galeel]

I think the race there could be surprisingly close, but I really doubt that it could get seriously competitive.

[Mr. Smith]

No, 'cuz Trump has consistently been in the green there, even while generally disapproved. We'll be lucky if it's even as close as 1988.

[TML]

If Biden wins the NPV by a substantial margin (>=5%) and/or is on track to rack up 360+ EVs, then I could see MT being not further right than R+5 or so. On Election night, if this state isn’t called for Trump at poll closing time, chances are the final result will probably be comparable to 1992, 1996, or 2008.

[Kleine Scheiße]

Could. Doubt we'll win, but it could be very close.

[It’s so Joever]

It could be, but it only will be more Democrat than 2008 if Trump is screwing up with campaigning/messaging. I honestly think Alaska is the real sleeper West State this cycle.

[morgieb]

Doubtful. Though part of me does see it and Alaska as possible sleeper states. More likely is a moderate Trump win of around 8-10 points though.

[McGarnagle]

Yes

Steve Bullock's Senate run could help make it closer than usual - he's popular there, and that could result in more votes for Biden than there might otherwise be

Bullock never should have run for president - he made the right decision by dropping his bid and focusing on trying to flip the Senate seat, even if it was at the last minute

I doubt it will flip, but the pandemic has thrown so many assumptions out the window that maybe, possibly, it could. I wouldn't have said that at the beginning of the year

[Tender Branson]

Microsoft Polling currently has it Biden +8 in Montana, so ...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/elections-2020/polls

[Orwell]

Hypothetically, Yes. In all reality probably no.

[Lognog]

down ballot sure, on the prez level I think not

[wbrocks67]

Civiqs approval has him in the red in Montana, for what its worth

https://civiqs.com/results/approve_president_trump?annotations=true&uncertainty=true&zoomIn=true

[GeorgiaModerate]

Good timing for this thread: a new poll by Montana State U. shows Trump up by 5.6% in the state.

https://www.ktvh.com/news/montana-news/msu-poll-bullock-leads-daines-in-senate-contest

[OneJ]

Probably not as close as 2008 barring an absolute landslide/larger economic downturn as others have said, but it won't be surprising to see Biden losing the state by the single digits.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Probably not unless there is a monumental shift in the race where everyone expects Trump to lose and badly.

[😥]

Yes, I can think about 1-3 points win for Biden here