Could Montana be as close as it was in 2008 this year?

[OSR stands with Israel]

I don't understand how this forum thinks that blacks, latinos, non college educated whites, and college educated whites can all shift to Biden while the election remains competitive. I at least respect those who say that Trump has no chance for being intellectually honest with themselves.

The polls right now are not showing this election to be competitive lol , they are showing it to be another 2008 .


If this election was competitive Biden wouldn’t be up high single digits in Michigan , 5-6 points in Pennsylvania and tied in Ohio and Texas .


There is still a long time for this to change and Trump can still obviously win but as of today it’s not competitive. It may be in October but as of now the election wouldn’t be competitive

Didn't I hear the 4 Years ago?  MAGA!!!!!!

Read the last sentence again

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Dems are gonna win the Senate race but Gov race and Prez race may go R

Not seeing it.

I do think that if the gap in Montana is narrowed somewhat at the presidential level it could make the senate race a toss up or push Bullock over since you'd just need a handful more of split ticket voters.

I don't Know why a conservative state ever voted for Steve Bullock or Jon Tester anyway.  I'm next door in ND, and while Heidi Heitkamp Won in 2012 (I voted for her opponent Rick Berg), that mistake by the state was swiftly rectified in 2018.  At least from my point of view, as a conservative, I hope MT elects conservatives, and doesn't do split tickets or whatever.  But we'll see.

Why should your view be the monopoly on what it means to be a "conservative"?

[HAMMER77777]

I don't understand how this forum thinks that blacks, latinos, non college educated whites, and college educated whites can all shift to Biden while the election remains competitive. I at least respect those who say that Trump has no chance for being intellectually honest with themselves.

The polls right now are not showing this election to be competitive lol , they are showing it to be another 2008 .


If this election was competitive Biden wouldn’t be up high single digits in Michigan , 5-6 points in Pennsylvania and tied in Ohio and Texas .


There is still a long time for this to change and Trump can still obviously win but as of today it’s not competitive. It may be in October but as of now the election wouldn’t be competitive

Didn't I hear the 4 Years ago?  MAGA!!!!!!

Read the last sentence again

I did.  All that matters is who Wins.  Even if a football team is down 30-points, but they come back to Win, all people will remember is who finally WON THE GAME, not who was up at the half.

[HAMMER77777]

Dems are gonna win the Senate race but Gov race and Prez race may go R

Not seeing it.

I do think that if the gap in Montana is narrowed somewhat at the presidential level it could make the senate race a toss up or push Bullock over since you'd just need a handful more of split ticket voters.

I don't Know why a conservative state ever voted for Steve Bullock or Jon Tester anyway.  I'm next door in ND, and while Heidi Heitkamp Won in 2012 (I voted for her opponent Rick Berg), that mistake by the state was swiftly rectified in 2018.  At least from my point of view, as a conservative, I hope MT elects conservatives, and doesn't do split tickets or whatever.  But we'll see.

Why should your view be the monopoly on what it means to be a "conservative"?

Has nothing to do with MY view, as I am only 1 person.  It has to do with the general consensus of what conservatives like, as opposed to RINOS.  At least in my state of ND, basically the Dem's have been banished from any statewide office and hold, I think 7 seats in the state senate (mostly in districts representing Indian reservations).  Much as the reverse is true in liberal states like HI, MA, etc..  Don't quote me on the exact number, as I'm too lazy to look it up, but I think HI state senate has zero Republicans?  And that's fine.  Keep the liberal states liberal, keep the conservative states conservative, and skip all this squishy middle stuff.  Then people can self-sort (as my wife and I did by leaving NJ and moving to ND).  I like visiting NJ, nice pizza there, Atlantic City is a fun town, but I no longer desire to live there.

[Del Tachi]

Cascade and Lewis & Clark Counties (combined population of ~150k) were both comfortable Obama wins in 2008, but both went to Trump in 2016 (Cascade by >20pts). 

The recent trends in MT have favored the GOP, not Dems.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Dems are gonna win the Senate race but Gov race and Prez race may go R

Not seeing it.

I do think that if the gap in Montana is narrowed somewhat at the presidential level it could make the senate race a toss up or push Bullock over since you'd just need a handful more of split ticket voters.

I don't Know why a conservative state ever voted for Steve Bullock or Jon Tester anyway.  I'm next door in ND, and while Heidi Heitkamp Won in 2012 (I voted for her opponent Rick Berg), that mistake by the state was swiftly rectified in 2018.  At least from my point of view, as a conservative, I hope MT elects conservatives, and doesn't do split tickets or whatever.  But we'll see.

First off, welcome to the forum! And yes, for whatever reason this forum really overrates red state Democrats -- mainly a result of contempt for Republicans and a denial that we actually do have our own conservative values and beliefs that are more then just "haha black people bad." MO 2018, IN 2018, IN 2016, ND 2018, TN 2018, GA 2014, KY 2014, KY 2020, MT 2020, KS 2014, KS 2020 -- there's a laundry list of examples.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I don't understand how this forum thinks that blacks, latinos, non college educated whites, and college educated whites can all shift to Biden while the election remains competitive. I at least respect those who say that Trump has no chance for being intellectually honest with themselves.

The polls right now are not showing this election to be competitive lol , they are showing it to be another 2008 .


If this election was competitive Biden wouldn’t be up high single digits in Michigan , 5-6 points in Pennsylvania and tied in Ohio and Texas .


There is still a long time for this to change and Trump can still obviously win but as of today it’s not competitive. It may be in October but as of now the election wouldn’t be competitive

Didn't I hear the 4 Years ago?  MAGA!!!!!!

Read the last sentence again

I did.  All that matters is who Wins.  Even if a football team is down 30-points, but they come back to Win, all people will remember is who finally WON THE GAME, not who was up at the half.

To take that analogy a little further: when the game is at the half, you'd rather be the team up by 30.  Just because a team came back to win its last game, it should not be automatically assumed that it will do the same thing again.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Cascade and Lewis & Clark Counties (combined population of ~150k) were both comfortable Obama wins in 2008, but both went to Trump in 2016 (Cascade by >20pts).  

The recent trends in MT have favored the GOP, not Dems.

Do you mean to imply that non college educated whites are trending rightwards, even in muh populist swing state Montana? Hersey!

[lfromnj]

I actually do wonder when Deer Lodge votes Republican, its the last Democrat mining county along with those in the Iron range, was +38 Obama,+32 Obama but only +8 Clinton. It was Tester +40 in 2018 but plenty of WV counties still voted for Byrd and Rockefeller in 2000,2002 etc.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

I actually do wonder when Deer Lodge votes Republican, its the last Democrat mining county along with those in the Iron range, was +38 Obama,+32 Obama but only +8 Clinton. It was Tester +40 in 2018 but plenty of WV counties still voted for Byrd and Rockefeller in 2000,2002 etc.

Lean D in 2020, Lean R in 2024

[HAMMER77777]

Dems are gonna win the Senate race but Gov race and Prez race may go R

Not seeing it.

I do think that if the gap in Montana is narrowed somewhat at the presidential level it could make the senate race a toss up or push Bullock over since you'd just need a handful more of split ticket voters.

I don't Know why a conservative state ever voted for Steve Bullock or Jon Tester anyway.  I'm next door in ND, and while Heidi Heitkamp Won in 2012 (I voted for her opponent Rick Berg), that mistake by the state was swiftly rectified in 2018.  At least from my point of view, as a conservative, I hope MT elects conservatives, and doesn't do split tickets or whatever.  But we'll see.

First off, welcome to the forum! And yes, for whatever reason this forum really overrates red state Democrats -- mainly a result of contempt for Republicans and a denial that we actually do have our own conservative values and beliefs that are more then just "haha black people bad." MO 2018, IN 2018, IN 2016, ND 2018, TN 2018, GA 2014, KY 2014, KY 2020, MT 2020, KS 2014, KS 2020 -- there's a laundry list of examples.

Thanks, well Said.  Interesting profile name you have.  What's the story behind it, just curious?

[ElectionsGuy]

lol no. Some people are seriously entering a new level of delusion with regards to Montana, that poll of Trump +5 and Bullock +7 is way off the mark. In a few months, people are going to be wondering why so many of us believe this. Current polls are implying Montana's going to trend 10 points Democratic, not going to happen. I do think the Senate race is close but it's going to be very difficult for Bullock to actually win when in September/October the Senate and Presidential voting behavior will ultimately converge more.

[HAMMER77777]

I don't understand how this forum thinks that blacks, latinos, non college educated whites, and college educated whites can all shift to Biden while the election remains competitive. I at least respect those who say that Trump has no chance for being intellectually honest with themselves.

The polls right now are not showing this election to be competitive lol , they are showing it to be another 2008 .


If this election was competitive Biden wouldn’t be up high single digits in Michigan , 5-6 points in Pennsylvania and tied in Ohio and Texas .


There is still a long time for this to change and Trump can still obviously win but as of today it’s not competitive. It may be in October but as of now the election wouldn’t be competitive

Didn't I hear the 4 Years ago?  MAGA!!!!!!

Read the last sentence again

I did.  All that matters is who Wins.  Even if a football team is down 30-points, but they come back to Win, all people will remember is who finally WON THE GAME, not who was up at the half.

To take that analogy a little further: when the game is at the half, you'd rather be the team up by 30.  Just because a team came back to win its last game, it should not be automatically assumed that it will do the same thing again.

Fair point.  But I don't see the game as that far apart at this juncture.  Basically seems like a tossup (in football terms, maybe a touchdown difference at this point).

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Dems are gonna win the Senate race but Gov race and Prez race may go R

Not seeing it.

I do think that if the gap in Montana is narrowed somewhat at the presidential level it could make the senate race a toss up or push Bullock over since you'd just need a handful more of split ticket voters.

I don't Know why a conservative state ever voted for Steve Bullock or Jon Tester anyway.  I'm next door in ND, and while Heidi Heitkamp Won in 2012 (I voted for her opponent Rick Berg), that mistake by the state was swiftly rectified in 2018.  At least from my point of view, as a conservative, I hope MT elects conservatives, and doesn't do split tickets or whatever.  But we'll see.

First off, welcome to the forum! And yes, for whatever reason this forum really overrates red state Democrats -- mainly a result of contempt for Republicans and a denial that we actually do have our own conservative values and beliefs that are more then just "haha black people bad." MO 2018, IN 2018, IN 2016, ND 2018, TN 2018, GA 2014, KY 2014, KY 2020, MT 2020, KS 2014, KS 2020 -- there's a laundry list of examples.

Thanks, well Said.  Interesting profile name you have.  What's the story behind it, just curious?

I once had a brief (like a week or so) where I kept arguing that Nevada was competitive. Someone mockingly called me Sen. Dean Heller and I took it as my new display name.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Dems are gonna win the Senate race but Gov race and Prez race may go R

Not seeing it.

I do think that if the gap in Montana is narrowed somewhat at the presidential level it could make the senate race a toss up or push Bullock over since you'd just need a handful more of split ticket voters.

I don't Know why a conservative state ever voted for Steve Bullock or Jon Tester anyway.  I'm next door in ND, and while Heidi Heitkamp Won in 2012 (I voted for her opponent Rick Berg), that mistake by the state was swiftly rectified in 2018.  At least from my point of view, as a conservative, I hope MT elects conservatives, and doesn't do split tickets or whatever.  But we'll see.

Why should your view be the monopoly on what it means to be a "conservative"?

Has nothing to do with MY view, as I am only 1 person.  It has to do with the general consensus of what conservatives like, as opposed to RINOS.  At least in my state of ND, basically the Dem's have been banished from any statewide office and hold, I think 7 seats in the state senate (mostly in districts representing Indian reservations).  Much as the reverse is true in liberal states like HI, MA, etc..  Don't quote me on the exact number, as I'm too lazy to look it up, but I think HI state senate has zero Republicans?  And that's fine.  Keep the liberal states liberal, keep the conservative states conservative, and skip all this squishy middle stuff.  Then people can self-sort (as my wife and I did by leaving NJ and moving to ND).  I like visiting NJ, nice pizza there, Atlantic City is a fun town, but I no longer desire to live there.

Both the definition of "conservative" and "liberal" have changed substantially in recent times. Why is Trump supporting Republican a "real conservative" but a #NeverTrumper Republican isn't?

[Orwell]

I doubt it. I'm bullish on Biden but I think Montana is going to be a double-digit Trump win.

I think he wins it by 8-9, but I also believe Bullock and Cooney will win their races as well. I guess I am Bullish about the MT DP haha.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Dems are gonna win the Senate race but Gov race and Prez race may go R

Not seeing it.

I do think that if the gap in Montana is narrowed somewhat at the presidential level it could make the senate race a toss up or push Bullock over since you'd just need a handful more of split ticket voters.

I don't Know why a conservative state ever voted for Steve Bullock or Jon Tester anyway.  I'm next door in ND, and while Heidi Heitkamp Won in 2012 (I voted for her opponent Rick Berg), that mistake by the state was swiftly rectified in 2018.  At least from my point of view, as a conservative, I hope MT elects conservatives, and doesn't do split tickets or whatever.  But we'll see.

Why should your view be the monopoly on what it means to be a "conservative"?

Has nothing to do with MY view, as I am only 1 person.  It has to do with the general consensus of what conservatives like, as opposed to RINOS.  At least in my state of ND, basically the Dem's have been banished from any statewide office and hold, I think 7 seats in the state senate (mostly in districts representing Indian reservations).  Much as the reverse is true in liberal states like HI, MA, etc..  Don't quote me on the exact number, as I'm too lazy to look it up, but I think HI state senate has zero Republicans?  And that's fine.  Keep the liberal states liberal, keep the conservative states conservative, and skip all this squishy middle stuff.  Then people can self-sort (as my wife and I did by leaving NJ and moving to ND).  I like visiting NJ, nice pizza there, Atlantic City is a fun town, but I no longer desire to live there.

Both the definition of "conservative" and "liberal" have changed substantially in recent times. Why is Trump supporting Republican a "real conservative" but a #NeverTrumper Republican isn't?

A NeverTrumper Republican certainly can be a real conservative. Most just aren't.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

I doubt it. I'm bullish on Biden but I think Montana is going to be a double-digit Trump win.

I think he wins it by 8-9, but I also believe Bullock and Cooney will win their races as well. I guess I am Bullish about the MT DP haha.

Ah, so only an 11 point leftwards swing.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Could, yes. Will, hmm it's possible. I think R+6.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Could, yes. Will, hmm it's possible. I think R+6.

Got it, so a 14 point left swing.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I doubt it. I'm bullish on Biden but I think Montana is going to be a double-digit Trump win.

I think he wins it by 8-9, but I also believe Bullock and Cooney will win their races as well. I guess I am Bullish about the MT DP haha.

Ah, so only an 11 point leftwards swing.

If Biden wins by 7-8 nationally yes that is a reasonable swing and that wouldn’t be more than a 6 point Dem trend in MT which matches up almost perfectly with how Montana trends for the party outside the WH

[catographer]

I think Trump will be winning Montana by between 15-20 pts, outrunning Daines by 10-15 pts.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I doubt it. I'm bullish on Biden but I think Montana is going to be a double-digit Trump win.

I think he wins it by 8-9, but I also believe Bullock and Cooney will win their races as well. I guess I am Bullish about the MT DP haha.

Ah, so only an 11 point leftwards swing.

If Biden wins by 7-8 nationally yes that is a reasonable swing and that wouldn’t be more than a 6 point Dem trend in MT which matches up almost perfectly with how Montana trends for the party outside the WH

Perhaps, if you think Montana will have a particularly strong D trend. I'm unconvinced it will, as I expect the strongest trends will come from the metropolitan sunbelt and East Coast.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I doubt it. I'm bullish on Biden but I think Montana is going to be a double-digit Trump win.

I think he wins it by 8-9, but I also believe Bullock and Cooney will win their races as well. I guess I am Bullish about the MT DP haha.

Ah, so only an 11 point leftwards swing.

If Biden wins by 7-8 nationally yes that is a reasonable swing and that wouldn’t be more than a 6 point Dem trend in MT which matches up almost perfectly with how Montana trends for the party outside the WH

Perhaps, if you think Montana will have a particularly strong D trend. I'm unconvinced it will, as I expect the strongest trends will come from the metropolitan sunbelt and East Coast.

MT along with IA are more exceptions to rule as they have history of wild swings

[Progressive Pessimist]

Not as close as 2008, but it could still possibly be close enough to make Republicans within the state, and beyond, panic.