COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Omega21]

https://patch.com/img/cdn/users/22821259/2016/04/raw/201604571e8f034279b.JPG?width=725

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

More assaults by people who love freedom. Two teenage employees of McDonald’s were shot by people upset the restaurant was take-out only.

https://www.koco.com/article/suspects-in-custody-after-2-employees-shot-at-mcdonalds-in-southwest-okc-police-say/32395365#

The Founding Fathers would be so proud of this use of the Second Amendment.

It is beyond my understanding how a country just assumes that incidents like these just happen once in a while because the Founding Fathers were apparently some infallible demi-gods whose opinions can never be questioned, never.

 The price of freedom¹ is that teenagers working a fast food job should expect to be shot by disgruntled customers. That's just the price we have to pay!

¹For purposes of this slogan, freedom is defined as billionaires and their enablers continuing to get richer, live well, and escape consequences. Outcomes for anyone else are highly likely to be negative. Use of the word freedom is for advertising purposes only and should not be considered an expressed or implied guarantee of, or advocacy for, actual freedom of any sort. Other terms and restrictions may apply.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A member of the US Navy who serves as one of President Donald Trump's personal valets has tested positive for coronavirus, CNN has learned Thursday, raising concerns about the President's possible exposure to the virus.
...
A White House source said the valet, a man who has not been identified, exhibited "symptoms" Wednesday morning, and said the news that someone close to Trump had tested positive for coronavirus was "hitting the fan" in the West Wing.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/07/politics/trump-valet-tests-positive-covid-19/index.html

On an unrelated note: would people please stop posting wide images and extra-long URLs?  It widens the page and makes it a pain to navigate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/whereisdaz/status/1257586054363635714

[Bandit3 the Worker]

https://twitter.com/whereisdaz/status/1257586054363635714

I remember the exponential graph actually being true in mid-March. Everyone said that EVERYONE in the whole country would be infected very quickly.

[Skill and Chance]

Social distancing assumes that, at some point or another, you will eventually come into contact with a high enough concentration of the virus to get infected.  The only thing that varies is the timing. 

No I don't think that's right. Suppose a kid is asymptomatic and visits his grandma. If they try to stay 6 feet apart she'll probably get a smaller load than if they hug and kiss when they meet/leave. This affects her mortality. After that, if she survives she's immune. It doesn't matter how many other infected people she comes into contact with at that point.

Not to nitpick, but that is what social distancing assumes because the "flatten the curve" models are unspecified in regards to viral loads/divergent infectivity.   

Even so, viruses are not poisons - within the body they are self-replicating.  While the initial "dose" of virus someone receives may affect their disease's progression (their innate immune response could be overwhelmed, thus making their later acquired immune response less effective), higher viral loads are themselves a result of severe cases more so than a cause.  Asymptomatic children are not going to be carrying enough virus to seriously impede the innate immune response of an (even older) adult; if grandma gets sick this way and dies, her immune system was already operating at severe disadvantage.   

My understanding is that social distancing that is sufficient to make the reproductive rate permanently go below 1 would lead to the virus eventually dying out in the population if sustained long enough and any infected international travelers are quarantined before entry.

However, at our current degree of social distancing, the reproductive rate in most states appears to be 0.8-1.1 depending on how this is influenced by the ramp up of testing.  With an initial reproductive rate of 0.9 and large outbreak to begin with, whatever social distancing conditions led to the 0.9 rate would have to be sustained for a very long time--potentially multiple years--for the virus to die out rather than spreading throughout that population.  If prohibitions on 100+ gatherings alone are sufficient to drive infection reproduction to 0.9, that might be socially sustainable until it's gone in the summer of 2022, but it's clear the current measures in the more restrictive states will not be sustainable that long.  However it's also true that, in practice, we are trying to hold the line until effective outpatient treatments are available and may not ultimately need to drive it to 0, just keep a lid on it until better medicine comes along.  That is more viable. 

[Person Man]

Social distancing assumes that, at some point or another, you will eventually come into contact with a high enough concentration of the virus to get infected.  The only thing that varies is the timing. 

No I don't think that's right. Suppose a kid is asymptomatic and visits his grandma. If they try to stay 6 feet apart she'll probably get a smaller load than if they hug and kiss when they meet/leave. This affects her mortality. After that, if she survives she's immune. It doesn't matter how many other infected people she comes into contact with at that point.

Not to nitpick, but that is what social distancing assumes because the "flatten the curve" models are unspecified in regards to viral loads/divergent infectivity.   

Even so, viruses are not poisons - within the body they are self-replicating.  While the initial "dose" of virus someone receives may affect their disease's progression (their innate immune response could be overwhelmed, thus making their later acquired immune response less effective), higher viral loads are themselves a result of severe cases more so than a cause.  Asymptomatic children are not going to be carrying enough virus to seriously impede the innate immune response of an (even older) adult; if grandma gets sick this way and dies, her immune system was already operating at severe disadvantage.   

My understanding is that social distancing that is sufficient to make the reproductive rate permanently go below 1 would lead to the virus eventually dying out in the population if sustained long enough and any infected international travelers are quarantined before entry.

However, at our current degree of social distancing, the reproductive rate in most states appears to be 0.8-1.1 depending on how this is influenced by the ramp up of testing.  With an initial reproductive rate of 0.9 and large outbreak to begin with, whatever social distancing conditions led to the 0.9 rate would have to be sustained for a very long time--potentially multiple years--for the virus to die out rather than spreading throughout that population.  If prohibitions on 100+ gatherings alone are sufficient to drive infection reproduction to 0.9, that might be socially sustainable until it's gone in the summer of 2022, but it's clear the current measures in the more restrictive states will not be sustainable that long.  However it's also true that, in practice, we are trying to hold the line until effective outpatient treatments are available and may not ultimately need to drive it to 0, just keep a lid on it until better medicine comes along.  That is more viable. 

I can almost buy that. All I know is that my supervisor doesn't want us back into the office until the pandemic is completely "over". What ever that means. I guess until there's a vaccine?

[jimrtex]

More assaults by people who love freedom. Two teenage employees of McDonald’s were shot by people upset the restaurant was take-out only.

https://www.koco.com/article/suspects-in-custody-after-2-employees-shot-at-mcdonalds-in-southwest-okc-police-say/32395365#

The Founding Fathers would be so proud of this use of the Second Amendment.

An update on the story including a picture of the alleged shooter.

Police Identify Woman Accused In SW OKC McDonald's Shooting

Since she was arrested a few blocks away, it sounds like she was on foot. If she were in a car she would have gone through the drive-through. So she likely entered the store, ordered at the counter, and then sat down at a table. The initial altercation was when the employees forced her out of the restaurant.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1258433129905340416

I believe this is the test the White House is using to regularly test the President and VP, and those who come into contact with them.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1258433129905340416

I believe this is the test the White House is using to regularly test the President and VP, and those who come into contact with them.

One of Trump's personal valets has tested positive for coronavirus

A member of the US Navy who serves as one of President Donald Trump's personal valets has tested positive for coronavirus, CNN learned Thursday, raising concerns about the President's possible exposure to the virus.

The valets are members of an elite military unit dedicated to the White House and often work very close to the President and first family. Trump was upset when he was informed Wednesday that the valet had tested positive, a source told CNN, and the President was subsequently tested again by the White House physician.

In a statement, the White House confirmed CNN's reporting that one of the President's staffers had tested positive.

"We were recently notified by the White House Medical Unit that a member of the United States Military, who works on the White House campus, has tested positive for Coronavirus," deputy White House press secretary Hogan Gidley said in a statement. "The President and the Vice President have since tested negative for the virus and they remain in great health."

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I Kind of Regret Getting an Antibody Test

This article from Slate makes it sounds like antibody tests are now widely available to basically anyone who wants on.  Is this actually true, and does anyone have experience with this?

(FWIW, the actual spin of the article, that the author was sad and frustrated about getting the test because it turned out negative, is incredibly stupid.)

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

A Broadband Engineer Was Spat on by a 5G Conspiracy Theorist. Then He Got Coronavirus: In UK the attacks on network workers are getting more frequent, brazen, and violent.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/4ayg8g/a-broadband-engineer-was-spat-on-by-a-5g-conspiracy-theorist-now-he-has-coronavirus?utm_source=reddit.com

[Sbane]

A Broadband Engineer Was Spat on by a 5G Conspiracy Theorist. Then He Got Coronavirus: In UK the attacks on network workers are getting more frequent, brazen, and violent.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/4ayg8g/a-broadband-engineer-was-spat-on-by-a-5g-conspiracy-theorist-now-he-has-coronavirus?utm_source=reddit.com

These people need to be arrested and brought up on terrorism charges.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

A Broadband Engineer Was Spat on by a 5G Conspiracy Theorist. Then He Got Coronavirus: In UK the attacks on network workers are getting more frequent, brazen, and violent.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/4ayg8g/a-broadband-engineer-was-spat-on-by-a-5g-conspiracy-theorist-now-he-has-coronavirus?utm_source=reddit.com

These people need to be arrested and brought up on terrorism charges.

The mindset that the mainstream political right embodies and relies on requires a mindset that is different from the 5G coronavirus craziness only in the specifics; the general lack of reasoning and critical thinking, the appeals to instinctive patterns, the rejection of science, evidence, and objective truth are all shared between "mainstream" Republicans and the right-wingnuts. I think that's a big part of why this sort of dangerous insanity is tolerated. To reject it is to implicitly reject the entire Republican (or "populist" right-wing) worldview. And that, in turn, means coming to terms with the reality that a good portion of your neighbors and fellow citizens are barely-human maniacs who might kill you for no comprehensible reason.  And that is a pretty hefty load of cognitive dissonance for even the most reasonable and intelligent non-Republicans to swallow.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

A Broadband Engineer Was Spat on by a 5G Conspiracy Theorist. Then He Got Coronavirus: In UK the attacks on network workers are getting more frequent, brazen, and violent.

https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/4ayg8g/a-broadband-engineer-was-spat-on-by-a-5g-conspiracy-theorist-now-he-has-coronavirus?utm_source=reddit.com

You know, normally I can at least understand the general contours of the logic of a conspiracy theory, however flawed that logic may be, but this one is really beyond my ability to comprehend.

[Grassroots]

I'm back. In the two weeks I've been gone, I (and everyone else) now have a much clearer picture about this virus and where we are going.

I think we are going to be generally back to normal by July. Cases p/d are not decreasing, only because testing is surging. Today (5/7) had the most tests in a day so far. The only metric that works now is percent of positives, which continues to fall to the lowest point (9%) since testing for this virus began.

Deaths have been decreasing steadily, which is very good because it's literally a two week lag from the cases p/d. Today and yesterday have had a not so good amount of deaths, but this is due to NY dumping a backlog of nursing home deaths (about 700) yesterday.

The treatment front is ok. Remdesivir is at least generally effective, and it should be in the hands of anyone who needs it within one to two weeks at best, before the end of this month for sure. That itself should lower the death rate considerably. Along with plasma treatments which have shown great promise, and multiple others in development, I am very optimistic.

The vaccine front is great. We may very well have one approved by September. But be careful, it's unlikely that they will be in the hands of the public before November/December even if that happens.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 5/7 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/19-4/25 in this post>

4/26: <Sunday>

• Cases: 987,160 (+26,509 | Δ Change: ↓25.56% | Σ Increase: ↑2.76%)
• Deaths: 55,413 (+1,157 | Δ Change: ↓44.13% | Σ Increase: ↑2.13%)

4/27:

• Cases: 1,010,299 (+23,139 | Δ Change: ↓12.71% | Σ Increase: ↑2.34%)
• Deaths: 56,797 (+1,384 | Δ Change: ↑19.62% | Σ Increase: ↑2.50%)

4/28:

• Cases: 1,035,454 (+25,155 | Δ Change: ↑8.71% | Σ Increase: ↑2.49%)
• Deaths: 59,252 (+2,455 | Δ Change: ↑77.38% | Σ Increase: ↑4.32%)

4/29:

• Cases: 1,064,572 (+29,118 | Δ Change: ↑15.75% | Σ Increase: ↑2.81%)
• Deaths: 61,669 (+2,417 | Δ Change: ↓1.55% | Σ Increase: ↑4.08%)

4/30:

• Cases: 1,095,023 (+30,451 | Δ Change: ↑4.58% | Σ Increase: ↑2.86%)
• Deaths: 63,856 (+2,187 | Δ Change: ↓9.52% | Σ Increase: ↑3.55%)

5/1:

• Cases: 1,131,280 (+36,257 | Δ Change: ↑19.07% | Σ Increase: ↑3.31%)
• Deaths: 65,766 (+1,910 | Δ Change: ↓12.67% | Σ Increase: ↑2.99%)

5/2:

• Cases: 1,160,774 (+29,484 | Δ Change: ↓18.68% | Σ Increase: ↑2.61%)
• Deaths: 67,444 (+1,678 | Δ Change: ↓12.15% | Σ Increase: ↑2.55%)

5/3: <Sunday>

• Cases: 1,187,804 (+27,030 | Δ Change: ↓8.32% | Σ Increase: ↑2.11%)
• Deaths: 68,589 (+1,142 | Δ Change: ↓31.94% | Σ Increase: ↑1.70%)

5/4:

• Cases: 1,212,835 (+25,031 | Δ Change: ↓7.40% | Σ Increase: ↑2.33%)
• Deaths: 69,921 (+1,332 | Δ Change: ↑16.64% | Σ Increase: ↑1.54%)

5/5:

• Cases: 1,236,987 (+24,152 | Δ Change: ↓3.51% | Σ Increase: ↑1.99%)
• Deaths: 72,241 (+2,320 | Δ Change: ↑74.17% | Σ Increase: ↑3.32%)

5/6 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 1,263,092 (+26,105 | Δ Change: ↑8.09% | Σ Increase: ↑2.11%)
• Deaths: 74,799 (+2,558 | Δ Change: ↑10.26% | Σ Increase: ↑3.54%)

5/7 (Today):

• Cases: 1,292,594 (+29,502 | Δ Change: ↑13.01% | Σ Increase: ↑2.34%)
• Deaths: 76,926 (+2,127 | Δ Change: ↓16.85% | Σ Increase: ↑2.84%)

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Latest cumulative European case & death graphs.  I've added a 7-day unweighted average graph for deaths (which completely wipes out day-of-week effects but is a little more lagging in trends) in addition to my 5-day weighted averages.

Several European countries had a bit more of a midweek spike this week compared to the last two.  But nothing severe enough to stop the overall downward trend across the board.  US cases have actually declined somewhat this week, but no indication of a national downward trend in deaths yet.

[Mr. Morden]

A member of the US Navy who serves as one of President Donald Trump's personal valets has tested positive for coronavirus, CNN has learned Thursday, raising concerns about the President's possible exposure to the virus.
...
A White House source said the valet, a man who has not been identified, exhibited "symptoms" Wednesday morning, and said the news that someone close to Trump had tested positive for coronavirus was "hitting the fan" in the West Wing.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/07/politics/trump-valet-tests-positive-covid-19/index.html

About that:

https://twitter.com/CarolLeonnig/status/1258561290680832000

Also:

https://twitter.com/DavidNakamura/status/1258571996524355586

[Grassroots]

I'm a fan of the measures for now, but the only thing I don't really like is the masks. My concern is that people won't know when to stop using them. I'm worried people will keep using them after the threat is gone, and I don't like that.

[Calthrina950]

I'm a fan of the measures for now, but the only thing I don't really like is the masks. My concern is that people won't know when to stop using them. I'm worried people will keep using them after the threat is gone, and I don't like that.

This is a question I've been curious about as well. How long will mask-wearing be a norm? Probably for the next several months. Even though they're necessary, I've struggled to get myself used to seeing them (and wearing them).

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I'm a fan of the measures for now, but the only thing I don't really like is the masks. My concern is that people won't know when to stop using them. I'm worried people will keep using them after the threat is gone, and I don't like that.

That's funny...wearing masks is basically the only major measure that I unconditionally favor.

This may be because my wife is from Korea.  She describes that Koreans have been conditioned from past viruses in Asia to universally wear masks at any sign of an outbreak.  And she thinks this is a major factor in why so many Asian counties fared so well compared to Europe and the US.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Mask wearing will probably be a common thing, it is what stops most asian countries from suffering as badly from the flu, when I used to work at a restaurant a lot of the asian customers would come in wearing masks

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

China knew about this Pandemic and didnt tell Americans about it

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

China knew about this Pandemic and didnt tell Americans about it

Being quiet would have been better than this.

https://twitter.com/who/status/1217043229427761152?lang=en