COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[jamestroll]

Some are saying we may have to cancel elections due to COVID 19 worries.

We can not constitutionally do that. But if we must... let's have a grand compromise.

Kick Trump out of the white house and install Larry Hogan as President.

https://twitter.com/FaceTheNation/status/1254768468232036352

https://twitter.com/GovLarryHogan/status/1252297144754716672

This is what real leadership looks like!

[Technocracy Timmy]

(Reuters) - Oklahoma's governor has called on U.S. President Donald Trump to declare the coronavirus pandemic an "act of God," a step to help oil-producing states contend with a crude glut that caused futures prices to close below $0 last week for the first time.

Source.

We gonna pray on this one y’all. Praise be to Christ.

Nothing to do with religion, Tim Bob.

What the COVID-19 Pandemic Means for Force Majeure Provisions

As the Reuters article explains producers lose their leases if they stop producing. If they keep producing, they have to pay someone to take the oil.

Lame

[Meclazine for Israel]

Your weekly reminder that we still have no plan for the next 12 months.

Does the world? Sure, Mr. Trump and his admin are utterly incompetent, but I don't see other countries with a better crisis management have a detailed plan for the next 12 months either.

Other leaders have articulated what measures will be implemented in the near term and, while no one has a complete 'master' plan, other governments have provided local and provincial authorities with a better roadmap for the future.

The Federal Government has so far failed to provide anything beyond a skeletal plan for reopening the country. Major concerns of transmission post lockdown remain unaddressed, as do concerns about critical national supply chains.

The whole point of this lockdown was to buy time. Time to produce more gear. Time to send Federal resources to the states. Time to formulate a long term strategy. It has been six weeks since the start of this lockdown and over 111 days since China confirmed COVID-19's existence. Yet we are no closer to fixing our protective gear shortage.

Going for herd immunity, with no viable plan in place for protecting the public, will be disastrous. Suggesting people wear cloth rags as makeshift masks is not a solution!

No. That is simply not true.

These are just assertions based on fear. Dealing with the unknown is not a comfortable feeling for some people.

There is much more advanced medical thinking underway with the Task Force's medical experts.

They cover the response through a science driven process with paths you have not even thought about.

[jimrtex]

It's funny how there is a lot of hate for DeSantis and lots of love for Whitmer, although Florida has less cases and deaths than Michigan even though it has more than double the population of the Wolverine State.

Death counts matter, but they still don't account for the fact that DeSantis is an idiot and Whitmer is not.

Correlation equals causation. Democratic governors cause death.

If we divide the 50 states and DC into tertiles based on deaths per million:

Top 3rd D: (12) NY, NJ, NJ, CT, LA, MI, DC, RI, IL, PA, CO, DE, WA
Top 3rd R: (5) MA, IN, GA, MS, MD

Mid 3rd D: (9) NV, VA, KY, WI, NM, MN, CA, KS, ME
Mid 3rd R: (8) VT, OH, OK, FL, MO, NH, AL, AZ

Bottom 3rd D: (4) NC, OR, MT, HI
Bottom 3rd R: (13) IA, SC, ID, NE, TN, TX, ND, WV, AR, UT, AK, WY, SD

But this is basically just a list of state population densities, broken up into tiers that suit your narrative.

Population density is a partial explanation.

Top 3rd D (12) DC, NJ, RI, CT, DE, NY, PA, CA-, IL, HI--, VA-, NC--
Top 3rd D (5) MD, MA, FL-, OH-, IN

CA, HI, VA, NC are better at preventing COVID-19 deaths than expected based on density, as are FL and OH.

Mid 3rd D (6) MI+, KY, LA+, WA+, WI, MN
Mid 3rd R (11) GA+, SC, TN-, TX-, AL, MO, WV-, VT, MS+, AZ, NH

MI, LA, WA are worse at preventing COVID-19 deaths than expected based on density, as are GA and MS. TN, TX, and WV are doing better than expected.

Bottom 3rd D(7) CO++, ME+, OR, NV+, NM+, MT, KS+
Bottom 3rd R(10) AR, OK+, IA, UT, NE, ID, SD, ND, WY, AK

CO, NE, NV, NM, KS are worse at preventing COVID-19 deaths than expected based on density, as is OK.

Governorships are nearly evenly split 25D:26R.

8 states led by Democrats do worse than expected based on density, 4 do better.

3 states led by Republicans do worse than expected based on density, 6 do better.

Florida is twice as densely populated as Michigan, yet Michigan has almost 7 times the death rate. Governor Whitmer tries to keep Michiganders indoors, won't let them travel to their summer cottages, and won't let them buy seeds for vegetables. We know UV sunlight promotes production of Vitamin D, which supports the immune system and bone health. Exposure to sunlight also reduces depression. Whitmer's pallor suggests a lack of sun exposure. Florida under DeSantis' leadership permits Floridians to enjoy the beaches.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It's funny how there is a lot of hate for DeSantis and lots of love for Whitmer, although Florida has less cases and deaths than Michigan even though it has more than double the population of the Wolverine State.

Death counts matter, but they still don't account for the fact that DeSantis is an idiot and Whitmer is not.

Correlation equals causation. Democratic governors cause death.

If we divide the 50 states and DC into tertiles based on deaths per million:

Top 3rd D: (12) NY, NJ, NJ, CT, LA, MI, DC, RI, IL, PA, CO, DE, WA
Top 3rd R: (5) MA, IN, GA, MS, MD

Mid 3rd D: (9) NV, VA, KY, WI, NM, MN, CA, KS, ME
Mid 3rd R: ( VT, OH, OK, FL, MO, NH, AL, AZ

Bottom 3rd D: (4) NC, OR, MT, HI
Bottom 3rd R: (13) IA, SC, ID, NE, TN, TX, ND, WV, AR, UT, AK, WY, SD

But this is basically just a list of state population densities, broken up into tiers that suit your narrative.

Population density is a partial explanation.

Top 3rd D (12) DC, NJ, RI, CT, DE, NY, PA, CA-, IL, HI--, VA-, NC--
Top 3rd D (5) MD, MA, FL-, OH-, IN

CA, HI, VA, NC are better at preventing COVID-19 deaths than expected based on density, as are FL and OH.

Mid 3rd D (6) MI+, KY, LA+, WA+, WI, MN
Mid 3rd R (11) GA+, SC, TN-, TX-, AL, MO, WV-, VT, MS+, AZ, NH

MI, LA, WA are worse at preventing COVID-19 deaths than expected based on density, as are GA and MS. TN, TX, and WV are doing better than expected.

Bottom 3rd D(7) CO++, ME+, OR, NV+, NM+, MT, KS+
Bottom 3rd R(10) AR, OK+, IA, UT, NE, ID, SD, ND, WY, AK

CO, NE, NV, NM, KS are worse at preventing COVID-19 deaths than expected based on density, as is OK.

Governorships are nearly evenly split 25D:26R.

8 states led by Democrats do worse than expected based on density, 4 do better.

3 states led by Republicans do worse than expected based on density, 6 do better.

Florida is twice as densely populated as Michigan, yet Michigan has almost 7 times the death rate. Governor Whitmer tries to keep Michiganders indoors, won't let them travel to their summer cottages, and won't let them buy seeds for vegetables. We know UV sunlight promotes production of Vitamin D, which supports the immune system and bone health. Exposure to sunlight also reduces depression. Whitmer's pallor suggests a lack of sun exposure. Florida under DeSantis' leadership permits Floridians to enjoy the beaches.

If I saw real evidence Whitmer did this and thinks this, I'd agree with you regarding her response. But do you have any news items to that effect?
I did a comprehensive look at the news and I couldn't find any actual evidence she was pushing particularly harsh policies. I came off with the impression that the news cycle was distorting how she was actually acting, policy-wise.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

Beware of subscriptions that are worse than the disease. If you extend the span of time for consideration long enough and just slavishly insist on lockdowns, you unleash a massive array of massively ugly consquences onto society, above and beyond what corona would be capable of.
The worst case scenario is not all efforts to contain corona spreading through the wider population failing. It is our economy collapsing under the weight of lockdowns, lockdowns being defied by the broader populace and thus being rendered ineffective, governments locking up people for not following its unpopular policies, society unraveling under the weight of humans being starved of face-to-face contact, and a whole host of negative consequences stemming from vain efforts on part of authorities to force mankind, an inherently social species, to talk to itself mainly by a set of screens and not normally for longer than it is willing to bear.
Corona stinks, but it isn't the end of world. The closest we can get to end of the world would be humanity sinking into collective insanity.

You missed the worst case for the 1%, that has them sweating bullets: a widespread successful response that involves drastic restructuring of our society and economy in a way that proves abusive and exploitative capitalism is worse than unnecessary.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1254791955755626496

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Beware of subscriptions that are worse than the disease. If you extend the span of time for consideration long enough and just slavishly insist on lockdowns, you unleash a massive array of massively ugly consquences onto society, above and beyond what corona would be capable of.
The worst case scenario is not all efforts to contain corona spreading through the wider population failing. It is our economy collapsing under the weight of lockdowns, lockdowns being defied by the broader populace and thus being rendered ineffective, governments locking up people for not following its unpopular policies, society unraveling under the weight of humans being starved of face-to-face contact, and a whole host of negative consequences stemming from vain efforts on part of authorities to force mankind, an inherently social species, to talk to itself mainly by a set of screens and not normally for longer than it is willing to bear.
Corona stinks, but it isn't the end of world. The closest we can get to end of the world would be humanity sinking into collective insanity.

You missed the worst case for the 1%, that has them sweating bullets: a widespread successful response that involves drastic restructuring of our society and economy in a way that proves abusive and exploitative capitalism is worse than unnecessary.

Why would a system unfavorable to the 1% be put in place if the public has became more docile than ever?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1254791955755626496

Open admission that the entire White House response has been a farce catering to Mr. Trump's ego.

Death is too good for these people. Long jail terms in SuperMax for Mr. Trump, his advisers and cabinet members.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/_cingraham/status/1254792999080349697

Of course, not all the excess deaths are necessarily due to COVID-19.  It's likely that there are some due to other medical conditions where people sought help too late due to fear of going to the hospital.  In the other direction, there's probably also a decline in deaths due to auto accidents.  But regardless of the exact numbers, it seems clear that "official" COVID-19 deaths are an underestimate (which is not really a surprise).

[Del Tachi]

https://twitter.com/_cingraham/status/1254792999080349697

Of course, not all the excess deaths are necessarily due to COVID-19.  It's likely that there are some due to other medical conditions where people sought help too late due to fear of going to the hospital.  In the other direction, there's probably also a decline in deaths due to auto accidents.  But regardless of the exact numbers, it seems clear that "official" COVID-19 deaths are an underestimate (which is not really a surprise).

I would just like to add that this probably isn't as scary as it looks because almost all of the excess mortality from COVID-19 is occurring in the oldest age cohorts, and a lot of these people would have probably died in the next 24 months anyway.  The pandemic has just hastened their demise.  If anything, we should expect to see reduced all cause mortality for several months after the pandemic ends (as a lot of folks who would have died in that future time period ending up dying early from COVID).   

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

https://twitter.com/_cingraham/status/1254792999080349697

Of course, not all the excess deaths are necessarily due to COVID-19.  It's likely that there are some due to other medical conditions where people sought help too late due to fear of going to the hospital.  In the other direction, there's probably also a decline in deaths due to auto accidents.  But regardless of the exact numbers, it seems clear that "official" COVID-19 deaths are an underestimate (which is not really a surprise).

I would just like to add that this probably isn't as scary as it looks because almost all of the excess mortality from COVID-19 is occurring in older age cohorts, and a lot of these people would have probably died in the next 24 months anyway.  The pandemic has just hastened their demise.  If anything, we should expect to see reduced all cause mortality for several months after the pandemic ends (as a lot of folks who would have died in that future time period ending up dying early from COVID).  

This is, of course, entirely speculative, in addition to being a rather cruel way to minimize the impacts of the virus.

e: NickG actually laid out some empirical evidence below suggesting this is true in nursing facilities to support the threadbare assertion provided above

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/_cingraham/status/1254792999080349697

Of course, not all the excess deaths are necessarily due to COVID-19.  It's likely that there are some due to other medical conditions where people sought help too late due to fear of going to the hospital.  In the other direction, there's probably also a decline in deaths due to auto accidents.  But regardless of the exact numbers, it seems clear that "official" COVID-19 deaths are an underestimate (which is not really a surprise).

I would just like to add that this probably isn't as scary as it looks because almost all of the excess mortality from COVID-19 is occurring in older age cohorts, and a lot of these people would have probably died in the next 24 months anyway.  The pandemic has just hastened their demise.  If anything, we should expect to see reduced all cause mortality for several months after the pandemic ends (as a lot of folks who would have died in that future time period ending up dying early from COVID).  

This is, of course, entirely speculative, in addition to being a rather cruel way to minimize the impacts of the virus.

It is certainly speculative with respect to individuals, and I don’t think it is accurate in the aggregate when applied to most seniors.  An otherwise healthy person in their early 70s has a life expectancy of about another 15 years.

However, it is true in aggregate when applied to nursing home patients where we have seen the greatest concentration of deaths.  The majority of nursing home patients die within six months of being admitted to the home (I’ve linked to the study below).  

If we are talking about extending restrictions for the better part of a year, most nursing home patients will have died from something else before they are lifted, likely with a much lower quality of life if they can’t see visitors or participating in most activities.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2945440/

[Devout Centrist]

No. That is simply not true..

Okay, do you have any evidence to the contrary? The President has yet to speak of a long term strategy for containment. Perhaps this is all 'behind the scenes', but surely it would be much more transparent to tell the public what the Feds plan to do over the next year. Secrecy is not good in the midst of a global pandemic.

These are just assertions based on fear. Dealing with the unknown is not a comfortable feeling for some people.

Our future is always uncertain, that's been true for all of human history. The problem here is that our government has yet to offer any meaningful contingency for that uncertain future. In fact, I'd argue that our uncertain future makes it even more important to articulate some kind of strategy.

We don't have a firm grasp of what will happen in the next year, but we can make educated guesses. And even if those guesses are proven wrong, we can adjust our strategy over time. Uncertainty is no excuse for a lack of preparedness.

There is much more advanced medical thinking underway with the Task Force's medical experts.

They cover the response through a science driven process with paths you have not even thought about

Surely they have devised a strategy of some sort, but that's not my concern. I'm worried about the Federal Government's leadership and handling of their ideas.

The President is the ultimate decision maker. If his judgement is any indication, we are in trouble. Whatever 'plan' the experts devise, I have no faith in Trump to explain it to the public or execute it properly. He will break; it is in his nature.

[Brittain33]

Whitmer's pallor suggests a lack of sun exposure.

[Panda Express]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1254791955755626496

lol what a baby

[Arizona Iced Tea]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1254791955755626496

He probably wants to improve his polling numbers

[Del Tachi]

https://twitter.com/_cingraham/status/1254792999080349697

Of course, not all the excess deaths are necessarily due to COVID-19.  It's likely that there are some due to other medical conditions where people sought help too late due to fear of going to the hospital.  In the other direction, there's probably also a decline in deaths due to auto accidents.  But regardless of the exact numbers, it seems clear that "official" COVID-19 deaths are an underestimate (which is not really a surprise).

I would just like to add that this probably isn't as scary as it looks because almost all of the excess mortality from COVID-19 is occurring in older age cohorts, and a lot of these people would have probably died in the next 24 months anyway.  The pandemic has just hastened their demise.  If anything, we should expect to see reduced all cause mortality for several months after the pandemic ends (as a lot of folks who would have died in that future time period ending up dying early from COVID).   

This is, of course, entirely speculative, in addition to being a rather cruel way to minimize the impacts of the virus.

1) It's not speculative.  Almost 60% of U.S. coronavirus deaths have occurred in persons age 75 or older.  Life expectancy for a 75-year old U.S. male is only 11.8 years, and only 5.6 years for an 85-year old.  People who are dying of this disease are mostly already at end-of-life, or at least very susceptible to developing other severe conditions/complications under non-pandemic conditions.

2) This is how excess mortality works in flu pandemics (and while COVID-19 is *not the flu, pathologically and epidemiological it behaves like a flu virus - one aspect of that being mortality is mostly confined to older, more comorbid populations).  Excess mortality from the 1957-58 flu pandemic was followed by a period of reduced all-cause mortality.  That's how epidemiological theory tells us excess mortality from an unmitigated flu pandemic works - a short period of high excess mortality, followed by a longer period of less noticeable below-average mortality.

You'd think after being dunked on time and time again in these exchanges you would learn some humility and lay low, but apparently not so. A person who gets refuted this often and returns to make the same points repeatedly is clearly dealing in bad faith.

[jimrtex]

It's funny how there is a lot of hate for DeSantis and lots of love for Whitmer, although Florida has less cases and deaths than Michigan even though it has more than double the population of the Wolverine State.

Death counts matter, but they still don't account for the fact that DeSantis is an idiot and Whitmer is not.

Correlation equals causation. Democratic governors cause death.

If we divide the 50 states and DC into tertiles based on deaths per million:

Top 3rd D: (12) NY, NJ, NJ, CT, LA, MI, DC, RI, IL, PA, CO, DE, WA
Top 3rd R: (5) MA, IN, GA, MS, MD

Mid 3rd D: (9) NV, VA, KY, WI, NM, MN, CA, KS, ME
Mid 3rd R: ( VT, OH, OK, FL, MO, NH, AL, AZ

Bottom 3rd D: (4) NC, OR, MT, HI
Bottom 3rd R: (13) IA, SC, ID, NE, TN, TX, ND, WV, AR, UT, AK, WY, SD

But this is basically just a list of state population densities, broken up into tiers that suit your narrative.

Population density is a partial explanation.

Top 3rd D (12) DC, NJ, RI, CT, DE, NY, PA, CA-, IL, HI--, VA-, NC--
Top 3rd D (5) MD, MA, FL-, OH-, IN

CA, HI, VA, NC are better at preventing COVID-19 deaths than expected based on density, as are FL and OH.

Mid 3rd D (6) MI+, KY, LA+, WA+, WI, MN
Mid 3rd R (11) GA+, SC, TN-, TX-, AL, MO, WV-, VT, MS+, AZ, NH

MI, LA, WA are worse at preventing COVID-19 deaths than expected based on density, as are GA and MS. TN, TX, and WV are doing better than expected.

Bottom 3rd D(7) CO++, ME+, OR, NV+, NM+, MT, KS+
Bottom 3rd R(10) AR, OK+, IA, UT, NE, ID, SD, ND, WY, AK

CO, NE, NV, NM, KS are worse at preventing COVID-19 deaths than expected based on density, as is OK.

Governorships are nearly evenly split 25D:26R.

8 states led by Democrats do worse than expected based on density, 4 do better.

3 states led by Republicans do worse than expected based on density, 6 do better.

Florida is twice as densely populated as Michigan, yet Michigan has almost 7 times the death rate. Governor Whitmer tries to keep Michiganders indoors, won't let them travel to their summer cottages, and won't let them buy seeds for vegetables. We know UV sunlight promotes production of Vitamin D, which supports the immune system and bone health. Exposure to sunlight also reduces depression. Whitmer's pallor suggests a lack of sun exposure. Florida under DeSantis' leadership permits Floridians to enjoy the beaches.

If I saw real evidence Whitmer did this and thinks this, I'd agree with you regarding her response. But do you have any news items to that effect?
I did a comprehensive look at the news and I couldn't find any actual evidence she was pushing particularly harsh policies. I came off with the impression that the news cycle was distorting how she was actually acting, policy-wise.

Legal Battle to Reach Vacation Homes Kicks Off Amid Travel Bans

The bizarre part was that the ban did not apply to residents of other states. Lots of Chicagoans have cottages along Lake Michigan.

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/_cingraham/status/1254792999080349697
Of course, not all the excess deaths are necessarily due to COVID-19.  It's likely that there are some due to other medical conditions where people sought help too late due to fear of going to the hospital.  In the other direction, there's probably also a decline in deaths due to auto accidents.  But regardless of the exact numbers, it seems clear that "official" COVID-19 deaths are an underestimate (which is not really a surprise).

I would just like to add that this probably isn't as scary as it looks because almost all of the excess mortality from COVID-19 is occurring in the oldest age cohorts, and a lot of these people would have probably died in the next 24 months anyway.  The pandemic has just hastened their demise.  If anything, we should expect to see reduced all cause mortality for several months after the pandemic ends (as a lot of folks who would have died in that future time period ending up dying early from COVID).   

The article is behind a paywall (most news outlets are not blocking coronavirus news).

But it shows 6300 excess deaths in NYC, 2200 in NJ, 700 in MI. It is possible that even more than 40% of deaths have occurred in NY.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1254825274786668546

Good news.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Beware of subscriptions that are worse than the disease. If you extend the span of time for consideration long enough and just slavishly insist on lockdowns, you unleash a massive array of massively ugly consquences onto society, above and beyond what corona would be capable of.
The worst case scenario is not all efforts to contain corona spreading through the wider population failing. It is our economy collapsing under the weight of lockdowns, lockdowns being defied by the broader populace and thus being rendered ineffective, governments locking up people for not following its unpopular policies, society unraveling under the weight of humans being starved of face-to-face contact, and a whole host of negative consequences stemming from vain efforts on part of authorities to force mankind, an inherently social species, to talk to itself mainly by a set of screens and not normally for longer than it is willing to bear.
Corona stinks, but it isn't the end of world. The closest we can get to end of the world would be humanity sinking into collective insanity.

You missed the worst case for the 1%, that has them sweating bullets: a widespread successful response that involves drastic restructuring of our society and economy in a way that proves abusive and exploitative capitalism is worse than unnecessary.

Why would a system unfavorable to the 1% be put in place if the public has became more docile than ever?

A lot of people have this bizarre idea that we're going to take a look at our free trial of bread lines, local travel restrictions, and snitching lines and sign up for a lifetime subscription under Glorious Communism.

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1254791955755626496

He probably wants to improve his polling numbers

Trump is briefing the nation today. Breaking in the last hour. So much for your petty sniping.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

https://twitter.com/axios/status/1254791955755626496

Can't wait for him to embarrass himself and tell us what kind of miracle cure we need to inject in our veins or shoved down our throats again

He probably wants to improve his polling numbers

Trump is briefing the nation today. Breaking in the last hour. So much for your petty sniping.