COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Badger]

What do you guys think? Could this turn into something or is it a nothing burger?

https://twitter.com/SethAbramson/status/1253785676274970625?s=20

Looks like another crank theory to file next to the Hooker Piss Tape.

Other than the fact it's extremely well documented, cites numerous credible media sources, has multiple such sources corroborating his argument, fits Trump's MO to a T, and provides an undeniable motive, and there is an actual novel insertion in the recent trade deal that would hold China harmless for such incidents as by sheer coincidence a pandemic outbreak, you are absolutely right!

As noted in another post, I'll be the first to agree that Seth Abramson is generally a sketchy Source. However, this is a surprisingly cogent and well documented argument he presents. Good enough that just standard knee-jerk denial that Trump is a chronic f****-up just won't cut it as a response.

[Badger]

https://mobile.twitter.com/thehill/status/1253734108448120834

a) Trump's probably lying and making up excuses for his behavior,

b) if Trump's not lying the question is whether a global pandemic is really the right time for the President of the United States to troll the press, instead of acting, um, presidential.

There's no reason whatsoever to give him Trump the benefit of the doubt regarding the mind blowing, but still lesser evil of option b. There was absolutely zero in his tone, body language, or delivery that implies he was just trolling the Press. Offering BS insane ball excuses that literally make his medical advisers cringe publicly on camera next to him is something we've seen over and over again. As is when even his gargantuan idiocy reaches Quantum Mass that he walks it back with blatant lies.

[wbrocks67]

https://mobile.twitter.com/thehill/status/1253734108448120834

There are over 52,000 deaths in the USA, and he is being "sarcastic" during a Covid-19 pandemic briefing. Just think about that for a second or two.

Yeah, not sure why he went with this. That makes him look even WORSE tbh

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1253834453782351876

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/24 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>

4/12: <Sunday>

• Cases: 560,323 (+27,444 | Δ Change: ↓10.20% | Σ Increase: ↑5.15%)
• Deaths: 22,108 (+1,531 | Δ Change: ↓17.33% | Σ Increase: ↑7.44%)

4/13:

• Cases: 586,941 (+26,618 | Δ Change: ↓3.01% | Σ Increase: ↑4.75%)
• Deaths: 23,640 (+1,532 | Δ Change: ↑0.07% | Σ Increase: ↑6.93%)

4/14:

• Cases: 613,886 (+26,945 | Δ Change: ↑1.23% | Σ Increase: ↑4.59%)
• Deaths: 26,047 (+2,407 | Δ Change: ↑57.11% | Σ Increase: ↑10.18%)

4/15:

• Cases: 644,089 (+30,203 | Δ Change: ↑12.09% | Σ Increase: ↑4.92%)
• Deaths: 28,529 (+2,482 | Δ Change: ↑3.12% | Σ Increase: ↑9.53%)

4/16: <Missing Older Cases & Deaths Added / Δ Change Calculations Misleading>

• Cases: 677,570 (+33,481 | Σ Increase: ↑5.20%)
• Deaths: 34,617 (+6,088 | Σ Increase: ↑21.34%)

4/17: <Δ Change Calculations Based on 4/15>

• Cases: 709,735 (+32,165 | Δ Change: ↑6.50% | Σ Increase: ↑4.09%)
• Deaths: 37,154 (+2,537 | Δ Change: ↑2.22% | Σ Increase: ↑7.33%)

4/18:

• Cases: 738,830 (+29,095 | Δ Change: ↓9.54% | Σ Increase: ↑4.75%)
• Deaths: 39,014 (+1,860 | Δ Change: ↓26.69% | Σ Increase: ↑5.01%)

4/19: <Sunday>

• Cases: 764,303 (+25,473 | Δ Change: ↓12.45% | Σ Increase: ↑3.45%)
• Deaths: 40,548 (+1,534 | Δ Change: ↓17.53% | Σ Increase: ↑3.93%)

4/20:

• Cases: 792,759 (+28,456 | Δ Change: ↑11.71% | Σ Increase: ↑3.28%)
• Deaths: 42,514 (+1,966 | Δ Change: ↑28.16% | Σ Increase: ↑4.85%)

4/21:

• Cases: 818,744 (+25,985 | Δ Change: ↓8.68% | Σ Increase: ↑3.72%)
• Deaths: 45,318 (+2,804 | Δ Change: ↑42.62% | Σ Increase: ↑6.60%)

4/22:

• Cases: 848,555 (+29,811 | Δ Change: ↑14.72% | Σ Increase: ↑3.64%)
• Deaths: 47,654 (+2,336 | Δ Change: ↓16.69% | Σ Increase: ↑5.15%)

4/23 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 880,204 (+31,649 | Δ Change: ↑6.17% | Σ Increase: ↑3.73%)
• Deaths: 49,845 (+2,191 | Δ Change: ↓6.21% | Σ Increase: ↑4.60%)

4/24 (Today):

• Cases: 925,038 (+44,834 | Δ Change: ↑41.70% | Σ Increase: ↑5.09%)
• Deaths: 52,185 (+2,340 | Δ Change: ↑6.80% | Σ Increase: ↑4.69%)

[Dr. Arch]

Ugh...

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://miami.cbslocal.com/2020/04/24/miami-dade-covid-19-screening-program-infection-rate/

The early findings of SPARK-C, the Surveillance Program Assessing Risk and Knowledge of Coronavirus, a public-private partnership designed to determine the actual rate of COVID-19 exposure in the community found 6% of participants tested positive for COVID-19 antibodies, which equates to 165,000 Miami-Dade County residents.

This figure directly contrasts with testing site data.

As of Friday afternoon, there are 10,700 positive cases, according to the Florida Department of Health, suggesting that the actual number of infections is potentially 16.5 times the number of those captured through testing sites and local hospitals alone.

Researchers say they are “95% certain that the true amount of infection lies between 4.4% and 7.9% of the population, or between 123,000 and 221,000 residents. These results are similar but not identical to other recent, non-randomized testing programs that have been conducted throughout the United States.”

I think at a certain point even the most skeptical people need to acknowledge that a critical mass of serology studies have been done, and that they all point to the same fundamental conclusion: we are severely undercounting covid cases by somewhere around a factor of 10.

It’s true that none of these studies is perfect.  But they are diverse in their sampling pool and methodologies, and their flaws are pretty idiosyncratic.  There might be reason not to trust any single one in isolation.  But taken together, they paint a very convincing picture.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

UK



UK 24 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 84,996 – April 23
Recoveries added to curve – 40,000

UK has blown out with an increase in new cases causing the peak to move to the right.


France



France 24 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 59,955 – April 11
Recoveries added to curve – 59,500

France on the way down now.


Germany



Germany 24 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 66,264 – April 6
Recoveries added to curve – 14,400

Since April 19, the number of recoveries added has steadily decreased reflecting an increase in reporting this data-set by the Germans.


Spain



Spain 24 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 78,610 – April 9
Recoveries added to curve – 58,000

Spain has had a small increase in the last two days.


Italy



Italy 24 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 68,528 – March 30
Recoveries added to curve – 90,000

Italy following the curve downward.


USA



USA 24 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 458,503 – April 21
Recoveries added to curve – 325,000

USA on it's way down although the latest numbers in the last two days have lessened the downward slope considerably. It will now take longer for the number of Active Cases to reach 10% of the maximum. June 10-15 would be the predicted date now.


Growth Curve

When all the growth curves in Active Cases are plotted together, we get:



All growth curves have been smoothed with 3 point averaging.

For Australia, our current mortality rate is 1.18% of those who tested positive. So if 75% of people exposed are asymptomatic or simply non-symptomatic and were not tested, then our real mortality rate would be 0.3%. Australia only tested people with lung symptoms.

Clearly in colder climates were people are more condensed in their living arrangements, this number would be higher. New York, Milan, Wuhan etc.

Just looking through two months of scientific research and a couple of things are clear:

• We still don't know the exposure levels - that will hopefully come from serological testing which is underway in the USA with Dr Birx focusing on elderly care homes.
• We still don't know the risk of death once someone contracts the disease. The variability in patient response to the virus make this very difficult.

Although some patients (elderly, sick) are at a greater risk, there is currently no way to predict whether a patient will have a severe immunological response or otherwise to the virus.

So that means we have the following possibilities from infection into a person:

(a) People with no symptoms;
(b) People dying from viral pneumonia;
(c) People suffering severe immune response shock and dying;
(d) People recovering fully;

But there is simply no way to predict which category you will go into once you become infected. Most interestingly and worrying for medical professionals is that we have people walking around with no symptoms having no idea that they are infecting people with the virus.

So there is a lot we still do not know about the actual virus itself, and for that, we need to gather more data. Without the data which governs the risk of death, we simply cannot measure the risk against lives against the cost of closing the economies of the world.

For example, 150 million people in East Africa are under threat of starvation. If Governments close the economies of the world, that number could increase to 350 million people if food relief is not made available by the Western World. That is, one of the effects of closing the worlds' economies could be introducing a further 200 Million people in Africa to a life without food stability.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

As I said, the U.S is not flattening we're rising

[Dr. Arch]

At this rate, we'll hit 1,000,000 cases by Monday.

[Calthrina950]

At this rate, we'll hit 1,000,000 cases by Monday.

There are already over a million cases of coronavirus in the United States, and probably several million at this point, as the serology studies have indicated. However, why was there such a significant increase in the number of cases today? Coronavirus is on the verge of overtaking the Vietnam War in terms of the number of officially recorded casualties, and I don't think the White House's estimate of 60,000 is going to hold up.

[Dr. Arch]

At this rate, we'll hit 1,000,000 cases by Monday.

There are already over a million cases of coronavirus in the United States, and probably several million at this point, as the serology studies have indicated. However, why was there such a significant increase in the number of cases today? Coronavirus is on the verge of overtaking the Vietnam War in terms of the number of officially recorded casualties, and I don't think the White House's estimate of 60,000 is going to hold up.

Yes. I update the post from the same source every day at around the same hour. That's the net increase from yesterday at 8:00PM CST.

And, just from active cases alone and assuming not a single additional case takes place after today, we're looking at around 100,000 deaths already. In reality, we can be looking at least a couple hundred thousand.

If states start opening up again in the midst of this (I'm looking at you, GA, FL, and TX), we can start thinking of parts of a million. This is really serious.

[Calthrina950]

At this rate, we'll hit 1,000,000 cases by Monday.

There are already over a million cases of coronavirus in the United States, and probably several million at this point, as the serology studies have indicated. However, why was there such a significant increase in the number of cases today? Coronavirus is on the verge of overtaking the Vietnam War in terms of the number of officially recorded casualties, and I don't think the White House's estimate of 60,000 is going to hold up.

Yes. I update the post from the same source every day at around the same hour. That's the net increase from yesterday at 8:00PM CST.

And, just from active cases alone and assuming not a single additional case take place after today, we're looking at around 100,000 deaths already. In reality, we can be looking at least a couple hundred thousand.

If states start opening up again in the midst of this (I'm looking at you, GA, FL, and TX), we can start thinking of parts of a million. This is really serious.

Georgia's reopening has definitely been ill-advised, but Texas seems to be taking greater precautions, comparable to those here in Colorado. What framework do you think should be established for lifting shutdowns? As I've noted before, I don't think they can be sustained beyond June. Nevertheless, it is very likely that coronavirus approaches or even surpasses the casualty figures of either World War I (116,516) or World War II (407,000).

[Meclazine for Israel]

https://miami.cbslocal.com/2020/04/24/miami-dade-covid-19-screening-program-infection-rate/

The early findings of SPARK-C, the Surveillance Program Assessing Risk and Knowledge of Coronavirus, a public-private partnership designed to determine the actual rate of COVID-19 exposure in the community found 6% of participants tested positive for COVID-19 antibodies, which equates to 165,000 Miami-Dade County residents.

This figure directly contrasts with testing site data.

As of Friday afternoon, there are 10,700 positive cases, according to the Florida Department of Health, suggesting that the actual number of infections is potentially 16.5 times the number of those captured through testing sites and local hospitals alone.

Researchers say they are “95% certain that the true amount of infection lies between 4.4% and 7.9% of the population, or between 123,000 and 221,000 residents. These results are similar but not identical to other recent, non-randomized testing programs that have been conducted throughout the United States.”

I think at a certain point even the most skeptical people need to acknowledge that a critical mass of serology studies have been done, and that they all point to the same fundamental conclusion: we are severely undercounting covid cases by somewhere around a factor of 10.

It’s true that none of these studies is perfect.  But they are diverse in their sampling pool and methodologies, and their flaws are pretty idiosyncratic.  There might be reason not to trust any single one in isolation.  But taken together, they paint a very convincing picture.

Some pretty good points in there. Keep in mind we simply don't know yet. But the actual "exposure" is one of the most critical numbers we need to get to evaluate the population spread and therefore, the actual mortality rate from which risks of re-opening can be established.

If you did an effective serological test in Italy, USA, South Korea and Australia, you would get 4 different results.

Although, I tend to feel more comfortable based on what I am looking at with your overall comment of underestimation. Your '10' figure is higher than the figure from the first German research of '4' but lower than what people are thinking in Sweden. Sweden are now talking about the initial stages of 'herd immunity' if you listen to their chief epidemiologist. I don't know what number he is basing that on.

Keep in mind that there is much more that is not known than known at this early stage.

Dealing with the unknown changes the type of statements one can make about the virus.

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/AnnaESanders/status/1253818333243355136

By same period, do they mean the 4th Thursday in April, or the 23rd of April?

If I were a serious reporter, I'd want the daily reports for the past 5 years.

[Meclazine for Israel]

At this rate, we'll hit 1,000,000 cases by Monday.

There are already over a million cases of coronavirus in the United States, and probably several million at this point, as the serology studies have indicated. However, why was there such a significant increase in the number of cases today? Coronavirus is on the verge of overtaking the Vietnam War in terms of the number of officially recorded casualties, and I don't think the White House's estimate of 60,000 is going to hold up.

Mike Pence today said that the USA is about to see increased numbers due to increased testing:

"As testing increases dramatically across the country, cases will accelerate as well."

[Dr. Arch]

At this rate, we'll hit 1,000,000 cases by Monday.

There are already over a million cases of coronavirus in the United States, and probably several million at this point, as the serology studies have indicated. However, why was there such a significant increase in the number of cases today? Coronavirus is on the verge of overtaking the Vietnam War in terms of the number of officially recorded casualties, and I don't think the White House's estimate of 60,000 is going to hold up.

Mike Pence today said that the USA is about to see increased numbers due to increased testing:

"As testing increases dramatically across the country, cases will accelerate as well."

Sure, but that's an artificial inflation of positive recorded case numbers. The deaths would still be happening regardless.

[YE]

https://twitter.com/smith31kev/status/1253889120767807489?s=21

[It’s so Joever]

I remember when I was an alarmist for thinking millions would be infected and hundreds of thousands would die.

[Badger]

At this rate, we'll hit 1,000,000 cases by Monday.

There are already over a million cases of coronavirus in the United States, and probably several million at this point, as the serology studies have indicated. However, why was there such a significant increase in the number of cases today? Coronavirus is on the verge of overtaking the Vietnam War in terms of the number of officially recorded casualties, and I don't think the White House's estimate of 60,000 is going to hold up.

Yes. I update the post from the same source every day at around the same hour. That's the net increase from yesterday at 8:00PM CST.

And, just from active cases alone and assuming not a single additional case take place after today, we're looking at around 100,000 deaths already. In reality, we can be looking at least a couple hundred thousand.

If states start opening up again in the midst of this (I'm looking at you, GA, FL, and TX), we can start thinking of parts of a million. This is really serious.

Georgia's reopening has definitely been ill-advised, but Texas seems to be taking greater precautions, comparable to those here in Colorado. What framework do you think should be established for lifting shutdowns? As I've noted before, I don't think they can be sustained beyond June. Nevertheless, it is very likely that coronavirus approaches or even surpasses the casualty figures of either World War I (116,516) or World War II (407,000).

I thought Colorado was also doing an (ill advised) early opening.

[Koharu]

Apparently the federal government is essentially running a blockade on PPE, making it difficult for states and municipalities to get the supplies they need.

Here's a letter from the New England Journal of Medicine, and I'll share a few bits from it:

Deals, some bizarre and convoluted, and many involving large sums of money, have dissolved at the last minute when we were outbid or outmuscled, sometimes by the federal government. Then we got lucky, but getting the supplies was not easy.

...Two semi-trailer trucks, cleverly marked as food-service vehicles, met us at the warehouse. When fully loaded, the trucks would take two distinct routes back to Massachusetts to minimize the chances that their contents would be detained or redirected.

...I was soon shocked to learn that the Department of Homeland Security was still considering redirecting our PPE. Only some quick calls leading to intervention by our congressional representative prevented its seizure.

Firefighters in Miami were not so lucky, and had their shipment taken by the feds.

[T'Chenka]

Apparently the federal government is essentially running a blockade on PPE, making it difficult for states and municipalities to get the supplies they need.

Here's a letter from the New England Journal of Medicine, and I'll share a few bits from it:

Deals, some bizarre and convoluted, and many involving large sums of money, have dissolved at the last minute when we were outbid or outmuscled, sometimes by the federal government. Then we got lucky, but getting the supplies was not easy.

...Two semi-trailer trucks, cleverly marked as food-service vehicles, met us at the warehouse. When fully loaded, the trucks would take two distinct routes back to Massachusetts to minimize the chances that their contents would be detained or redirected.

...I was soon shocked to learn that the Department of Homeland Security was still considering redirecting our PPE. Only some quick calls leading to intervention by our congressional representative prevented its seizure.

Firefighters in Miami were not so lucky, and had their shipment taken by the feds.

If Obama was doing this to American citizens instead of Trump, there would be viral videos on the news right now of Republican voters calling Obama the N word and threatening him with violence. You know I'm right.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Apparently the federal government is essentially running a blockade on PPE, making it difficult for states and municipalities to get the supplies they need.

Here's a letter from the New England Journal of Medicine, and I'll share a few bits from it:

Deals, some bizarre and convoluted, and many involving large sums of money, have dissolved at the last minute when we were outbid or outmuscled, sometimes by the federal government. Then we got lucky, but getting the supplies was not easy.

...Two semi-trailer trucks, cleverly marked as food-service vehicles, met us at the warehouse. When fully loaded, the trucks would take two distinct routes back to Massachusetts to minimize the chances that their contents would be detained or redirected.

...I was soon shocked to learn that the Department of Homeland Security was still considering redirecting our PPE. Only some quick calls leading to intervention by our congressional representative prevented its seizure.

Firefighters in Miami were not so lucky, and had their shipment taken by the feds.

If Onama was doing this to American citizens instead of Trump, there would be viral videos on the news right now of Republican voters calling Obama the N word and threatening him with violence. You know I'm right.

Frankly, I miss President Onama.  

[Tender Branson]

New York Reports Over 30 Cases Fearing Disinfectant Ingestion After Trump's Dangerous Call

https://www.republicworld.com/world-news/us-news/after-trumps-inject-disinfectants-claim-new-york-reported-over-30-ca.html

Oh man ...

[T'Chenka]

Apparently the federal government is essentially running a blockade on PPE, making it difficult for states and municipalities to get the supplies they need.

Here's a letter from the New England Journal of Medicine, and I'll share a few bits from it:

Deals, some bizarre and convoluted, and many involving large sums of money, have dissolved at the last minute when we were outbid or outmuscled, sometimes by the federal government. Then we got lucky, but getting the supplies was not easy.

...Two semi-trailer trucks, cleverly marked as food-service vehicles, met us at the warehouse. When fully loaded, the trucks would take two distinct routes back to Massachusetts to minimize the chances that their contents would be detained or redirected.

...I was soon shocked to learn that the Department of Homeland Security was still considering redirecting our PPE. Only some quick calls leading to intervention by our congressional representative prevented its seizure.

Firefighters in Miami were not so lucky, and had their shipment taken by the feds.

If Onama was doing this to American citizens instead of Trump, there would be viral videos on the news right now of Republican voters calling Obama the N word and threatening him with violence. You know I'm right.

Frankly, I miss President Onama.  

He was born in Algeria, and nobody can tell me otherwise... unless he can produce a birth cerificate.