New Hampshire 2020 Redistricting

[Nyvin]

Sununu rejected the NH GOP's new map.  Not surprising since all they really did is slightly clean up the county lines (and they still aren't great), and didn't address the partisan aspects Sununu originally brought up.

https://twitter.com/AdamSextonWMUR/status/1518693549650415616

I'm kinda getting the impression what Sununu actually doesn't like is one of the districts being a double digit Biden win, but that's just my opinion.

[Brother Jonathan]

https://www.wmur.com/article/nh-house-republicans-redistricting-map/39842689

Looks like the House GOP is going to try and push the new map forward even with Sununu pretty clearly being against it. The Redistricting Committee voted 8-7 to advance it, and I doubt it will have a problem clearing the full House. The one hope here may be that the Senate amends it, but after the first round in which the Senate fell in line for the House map, I can't see that being a real option on the table. As far as I can tell there hasn't been an explicit veto threat on this one yet either, though the statement put out already is very close to one.

[Brother Jonathan]

https://indepthnh.org/2022/05/04/state-gop-elected-leaders-argue-for-no-changes-in-congressional-districts/

It appears that the GOP has decided that there is no path forward in the short term, and seem to be trying to convince the Courts just to keep the current maps rather than redrawing them. Not that there is much risk of the Court going for anything other than a least change map, which could move a few as one town. Not totally sure, but I am guessing that the GOP is just trying to make sure the issue stays firmly with the legislature.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/norwood270/status/1485670812006948868
Sununu signed it yesterday.
The tweet exaggerates how strong it is. IMO coalition shifts whether it be a reversal of trends or further trends will change the map up. We can see Obama won 14 districts while some further trends could create more blue districts even if NH isn't much more blue.

Still overall relatively secure for the near future.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Ig the main downside to their gerrymander is they give Dems 8 relatively safe D seats whereas none of the GOP seats can be absolutely secure for the decade. Also in the 4 narrow Biden seats trends have  generally been favorable to Dems

[Brother Jonathan]

https://twitter.com/norwood270/status/1485670812006948868
Sununu signed it yesterday.
The tweet exaggerates how strong it is. IMO coalition shifts whether it be a reversal of trends or further trends will change the map up. We can see Obama won 14 districts while some further trends could create more blue districts even if NH isn't much more blue.

Still overall relatively secure for the near future.

And it already has a Court challenge from the Democrats. Not sure that it will go anywhere, but I would think that's unlikely though far from impossible. Will be following it.

https://indepthnh.org/2022/05/07/suit-claims-unconstitutional-gerrymandering-for-senate-and-executive-council-plans/

[ProgressiveModerate]

One interesting note about the congressional map is Sununu’s map is basically drawn under the impression Rs will have a good shot at winning NH on the federal level going forwards whereas the legislatures map seems to think NH will generally lean D

[Brother Jonathan]

Another update: the Supreme Court has ruled that the current map cannot stand if a new one is not passed, and has said it will impose a least-change map by the end of the month. The State Senate has also now signaled that it wants to make changes to the House's most recently passed proposal (which Sununu has said does not meet his criteria), so we may be seeing the legislature starting to get itself together, though it remains to be seen if they can get to a consensus map that also appeases Sununu.

One interesting note about the congressional map is Sununu’s map is basically drawn under the impression Rs will have a good shot at winning NH on the federal level going forwards whereas the legislatures map seems to think NH will generally lean D

That is an interesting reading of it, and basically a role reversal from where things usually stand, with the legislative GOP having a very inflated sense of its prospects. I think Sununu's motives in particular are fairly multifaceted though, and part of it may be that he does not want someone like Al Baldasaro winning a primary in the proposed NH-1 and standing a shot in the general, while on a less awful map he would both stand less of a chance in the primary and would certainly face a steep climb in the general. Not that Sununu would not like an R held seat, but he does not want the state GOP to deal with someone from the Kook Caucus elevated to the national stage since it will probably drag the whole slate down.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/KlandriganUL/status/1525221487581577218

[Nyvin]

NH-1 is Biden+1

NH-2 is Biden+14

I don't think Sununu will go for it since NH-2 is still out of reach for Republicans, but we'll see.  Sununu's wording makes it sound like he's more interested in the partisanship than the shape of the districts.

[Schiff for Senate]

I was able to make a map in NH where Hassan was able to carry both of NH's districts in 2016 despite getting just 50.07% of the 2-way vote (she got 50.06% in one and 50.08% in the other): https://districtr.org/plan/129332.

Tellingly, however, despite their minimalistic deviation in the Senate race and both backing Hassan despite her ultra-razor-thin win (and in fact, the more rural seat voted to the left of the more urban one), the more northern/sparse/large/rural seat 1st district supported Trump (and voted a point to the right of the more urban 2nd). In 2020, both went for Biden (this time, though the 1st voted like 4 points to the right of the 2nd).

[lividnyx]

You can get the populations of the two districts within a range of 51 people just by moving Hampstead to CD2. Would this be what the NHSC considers least change?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/norwood270/status/1529893257739743235?s=20&t=7CZ3te2bHnh...

We're gonna get the "a single-town moves between districts map" after all!

[Nyvin]

Filing starts on June 1st, which is next Wednesday, so they still have some time to pass another map, but it seems unlikely especially considering it's a holiday weekend.

[Devils30]

Seems like a minimal change map is most likely at this point.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Bruh it's 2 districts, either you get a Lean R and Safe D seat or 2 lean D seats. Is it that hard!

Either Sununu really is good hearted on this issue or he's really cocky about the future of NH Rs on the federal level since he's kinda assuming they'd reliably win a Biden + 5ish NH-01 and have a good chance in a Biden + 9ish NH-02 in most years, which seems a bit like wishful thinking.

[lfromnj]

Bruh it's 2 districts, either you get a Lean R and Safe D seat or 2 lean D seats. Is it that hard!

Either Sununu really is good hearted on this issue or he's really cocky about the future of NH Rs on the federal level since he's kinda assuming they'd reliably win a Biden + 5ish NH-01 and have a good chance in a Biden + 9ish NH-02 in most years, which seems a bit like wishful thinking.

The answer is neither based on signing the legislative maps. It's most likely that creating a district with 60% of the R primary voters or so is a perfect venue from which to primary Sununu from.

[IAMCANADIAN]

Can someone convince me that Chris Sununu is not working for the Democrats? Republicans will not win both New Hampshire ridings no matter how it is drawn.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Republicans will not win both New Hampshire ridings no matter how it is drawn.

I don't understand this attitude. I mean, I definitely hope you're right, but both current NH seats are perfectly winnable in a good GOP year? In fact they won both not so long ago. Sure, NH trended D in 2020, but are we really going to extrapolate from a single election cycle?

[Brother Jonathan]

https://www.wmur.com/article/veto-congressional-district-map-new-hampshire-supreme-court-52622/40121440

So, clearly it is going to the Courts, and from the documents we have already seen they have not done what was widely expected and go for least change, but the draft now presented goes for minimum deviation, only -1. So instead 5 towns were moved from the north of CD 1 into CD 2.

Here's the report:

https://www.courts.nh.gov/sites/g/files/ehbemt471/files/documents/2022-05/052722norellivsos-plan.pdf

[Nyvin]

Special Master's recommended plan -

https://davesredistricting.org/join/1571f14f-8a72-4d77-b574-448cd87e7b20

NH-1 exactly Biden+6

NH-2 Biden+8.9

Slightly better for the GOP than just moving Hampstead, so not bad for them really.

[Devils30]

Big fail by Rs, NH-1 was lean R had they just passed a map. Now if Dems keep the House close they probably hold it.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Big fail by Rs, NH-1 was lean R had they just passed a map. Now if Dems keep the House close they probably hold it.

If the court draws a map where NH-01 votes to the left of the median House seat it'll only be very narrowly. Also one thing that kinda sucks for Rs is that many of the reddest pockets of the state are getting bluer while the bluest pockets are gettting redder which creates a weird dynamic

[ProgressiveModerate]

Anyone else worried can become a CT situation? Basically I can see how for the next couple redistricting cycles split control leads to court intervention and each time they draw a pretty least change map, leading to favourable outcome for Dems and a map that honestly doesn't represent COIs very well.

[smoltchanov]

Can someone convince me that Chris Sununu is not working for the Democrats? Republicans will not win both New Hampshire ridings no matter how it is drawn.

There are different Republicans and different Democrats. The fact, that he doesn't support extreme  right-wing wingnuts, doesn't makes Sununu less Republican...