New Hampshire 2020 Redistricting

[Nyvin]

Since the DRA can now make maps with townships and wards rather than census tracks (and also with 2018 pop estimates) I figured it's a good time to go over NH.

Congressional redistricting in NH is pretty dull, so I actually am focused on State Senate and Executive Council.

Starting with State Senate -





https://davesredistricting.org/join/3c594804-cdc8-4d67-8993-f179b75dc749

All districts aimed for 2018's district size (55,984).

Clinton won 12 districts by more than 5%,  Trump won 10 Districts by more than 5%.   The two remaining seats are Carol county's SD-2 (purple),  and SD-11 north of Nashua (light grey).    

SD-11 would be trending D pretty fast, and SD-2 would be trending R pretty fast.   That means, barring any sudden changes, I'd expect the map to produce a 13D-11R delegation in normal years, and in wave years pretty much anything can happen (it is New Hampshire...).

Some notes on the map -

With the Seacoast, it's either draw 3 safe D seats or draw 2 safe D and 2 (probably R-tilted) swing seats.  I choose the former, but either is possible.

With a 2018 population of 111,675, Manchester almost exactly divides into 2 Senate districts.  This is the part of the map where Dems go from their current 14 to 13 (from 3 to 2 in the Manch. area),  but their remaining two seats are much safer.

Connecting Sullivan County with Lebanon is almost perfectly one district and pretty ideal for Democrats, I really think they should push for that next year (the southern Grafton Co. seat is still a dem vote sink!).

I don't particularly like the Nashua + Litchfield district, but Nashua is a real pain to balance population with (UGH!).

I'll do the executive council tomorrow.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

anyone want to do NH General Court?

[TML]

According to 538's Atlas of Redistricting, it is possible to redraw NH's congressional districts to be more compact - this redistricting method could split only 1 county instead of the current 5, and would involve shorter boundaries.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

According to 538's Atlas of Redistricting, it is possible to redraw NH's congressional districts to be more compact - this redistricting method could split only 1 county instead of the current 5, and would involve shorter boundaries.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/b7a47c65-b044-4559-ab3e-0a51cf746a69
this is what a map designed to reduce county splits to just 1 while keeping as much of the current arrangements as possible would look like.

[Nyvin]

Here's what I would try for in the Executive Council

https://davesredistricting.org/join/c53a88cd-36ec-4329-8738-c94dcedd91bd



Districts sized to 2018 pop estimates.

[Nyvin]

According to 538's Atlas of Redistricting, it is possible to redraw NH's congressional districts to be more compact - this redistricting method could split only 1 county instead of the current 5, and would involve shorter boundaries.

County splits in New Hampshire don't really mean anything.   Most of the local government is handled at the township/city level.   No one in NH really associates where they live in the state with what county they're in, except maybe Coos.

Also, at least in the southeast, minimizing county splits actually splits up common COI's like the Manchester area, Dover/Durham/Portsmouth, or the area of western Hillsborough and eastern Cheshire. 

[Skill and Chance]

Assuming control is still split, what is the process to resolve a deadlock in NH?

[Nyvin]

Assuming control is still split, what is the process to resolve a deadlock in NH?

In 2001 it went to the State Supreme Court to decide the maps.

Currently the court is split 2R-2D and 1 vacancy.   The Executive Council can reject the Governor's nominations,  which they did last year when Sununu tried to put up Gordon MacDonald.   

If Sununu is able to fill the vacancy and he wins in 2020 (or Republicans get a majority in either leg chamber),  then I expect they'll push the map drawing to the judges and hope for a favorable map from them.

[Skill and Chance]

Assuming control is still split, what is the process to resolve a deadlock in NH?

In 2001 it went to the State Supreme Court to decide the maps.

Currently the court is split 2R-2D and 1 vacancy.   The Executive Council can reject the Governor's nominations,  which they did last year when Sununu tried to put up Gordon MacDonald.   

If Sununu is able to fill the vacancy and he wins in 2020 (or Republicans get a majority in either leg chamber),  then I expect they'll push the map drawing to the judges and hope for a favorable map from them.

Wow, remarkable that it's by district and Republicans still hold the 2 smallest, densest districts while Democrats still hold the 3 largest, most rural ones.

[Nyvin]

Congressional redistricting, like I said, will be boring most likely.   The district configurations, overall, are unchanged since the 70's (maybe before?), and I see absolutely no reason either party would want to change that now.

I fully expect the same Belknap + Carroll + Manchester area + Seacoast config of some sort or another for NH-1, and everything else for NH-2.    Very similar to what we have now, just re-arranged to equal out population.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/b84c3904-19e7-4a70-9578-612989aac5c5

I got these two within 100 people of being perfectly balanced with 2018 population estimates. 

[Brother Jonathan]

Congressional redistricting, like I said, will be boring most likely.   The district configurations, overall, are unchanged since the 70's (maybe before?), and I see absolutely no reason either party would want to change that now.

I fully expect the same Belknap + Carroll + Manchester area + Seacoast config of some sort or another for NH-1, and everything else for NH-2.    Very similar to what we have now, just re-arranged to equal out population.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/b84c3904-19e7-4a70-9578-612989aac5c5

I got these two within 100 people of being perfectly balanced with 2018 population estimates. 

If I recall, since NH was reduced to 2 districts in 1883, it has always been a lakes region/seacoast seat and an everything else to the west seat. So basically they've been tinkering along the same lines for 137 years.

[Sol]

Out of curiosity, why doesn't NH put the Lakes area in with the rural 1st district, and Nashua into the 2nd?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Assuming control is still split, what is the process to resolve a deadlock in NH?

In 2001 it went to the State Supreme Court to decide the maps.

Currently the court is split 2R-2D and 1 vacancy.   The Executive Council can reject the Governor's nominations,  which they did last year when Sununu tried to put up Gordon MacDonald.   

If Sununu is able to fill the vacancy and he wins in 2020 (or Republicans get a majority in either leg chamber),  then I expect they'll push the map drawing to the judges and hope for a favorable map from them.

Wow, remarkable that it's by district and Republicans still hold the 2 smallest, densest districts while Democrats still hold the 3 largest, most rural ones.

The rural parts of NH are basically East Vermont, so it is not too surprising I guess.

[Nyvin]

Here's something slightly more aggressive for dems if it's possible in the state senate.





10 seats where Clinton won by over 5%, and then another 4 tossups that were all within 2% for either candidate.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a21a369d-6896-4064-a5ec-3d7bfd4fa56b

This also gets rid of that horrible Nashua-Litchfield district with the river crossing.

[avishwanath28]

Given that Republicans took control of the entire state, I thought I'd take two shots at potential maps. The goal for any Republican map in the state should be to guarantee one Republican seat (or get as close as possible to doing so). I don't think it's really possible to draw two Republican seats.

The first map is a "weak" gerrymander. Compared to the existing map, I put the core of Manchester in the second district and move up north with NH-01 to make it a little more Republican leaning. I get that NH-01 is R+6 and NH-02 is D+5. However, I think that Trump would have lost NH-01 this year as I have drawn it here.

davesredistricting.org/join/613f4380-c935-43bc-ac42-4e66a9dfa227

The second map is a "strong" gerrymander. I put the cores of all the major Democratic areas (Dover, Manchester, Nashua, and Concord) in the 2nd district and tried to squeeze out all the Republican areas in southeast and around Concord that I could. I get that NH-01 is R+12 and NH-02 is D+11. Trump should have won this NH-01.

davesredistricting.org/join/413420fb-d908-453a-b0ec-1c1f5c0c7047

[Nyvin]

Given that Republicans took control of the entire state, I thought I'd take two shots at potential maps. The goal for any Republican map in the state should be to guarantee one Republican seat (or get as close as possible to doing so). I don't think it's really possible to draw two Republican seats.

The first map is a "weak" gerrymander. Compared to the existing map, I put the core of Manchester in the second district and move up north with NH-01 to make it a little more Republican leaning. I get that NH-01 is R+6 and NH-02 is D+5. However, I think that Trump would have lost NH-01 this year as I have drawn it here.

davesredistricting.org/join/613f4380-c935-43bc-ac42-4e66a9dfa227

The second map is a "strong" gerrymander. I put the cores of all the major Democratic areas (Dover, Manchester, Nashua, and Concord) in the 2nd district and tried to squeeze out all the Republican areas in southeast and around Concord that I could. I get that NH-01 is R+12 and NH-02 is D+11. Trump should have won this NH-01.

davesredistricting.org/join/413420fb-d908-453a-b0ec-1c1f5c0c7047

I doubt Nashua and Manchester end up in the same district, much less expect that either would have it's wards split on the congressional map.

I'm not really even convinced the Republicans would be up for making two safe seats rather than two tossups (or one tilt d, one swing?).   Maybe they will though, who knows.

One way or another, New Hampshire is darn near impossible to perfectly gerrymander, especially the congressional districts, there's just too many independent voters.

[Former President tack50]

Since Republicans have a trifecta and NH trended quite heavily D in 2020, I think Republicans will just try to gerrymander 1 district. So here is how an R gerry probably looks like:



NH-01: Trump+8, R+5
NH-02: Clinton+9, D+5

Given trends, the 2nd district would be safe D, while the 1st should still be a tossup?

[Mr.Phips]

So Biden basically brought out voters that ended up voting for a Republican gerrymander of the state? 

[Idaho Conservative]

Since Republicans have a trifecta and NH trended quite heavily D in 2020, I think Republicans will just try to gerrymander 1 district. So here is how an R gerry probably looks like:



NH-01: Trump+8, R+5
NH-02: Clinton+9, D+5

Given trends, the 2nd district would be safe D, while the 1st should still be a tossup?

Lean R

[It’s so Joever]

Since Republicans have a trifecta and NH trended quite heavily D in 2020, I think Republicans will just try to gerrymander 1 district. So here is how an R gerry probably looks like:



NH-01: Trump+8, R+5
NH-02: Clinton+9, D+5

Given trends, the 2nd district would be safe D, while the 1st should still be a tossup?

I don’t think so.
The state is pretty erratic in its voting patterns and the districts haven’t changed that much in decades.
Plus if there is a suburban/exurban Boston swing to the Dems, that could backfire.

[Nyvin]

Since Republicans have a trifecta and NH trended quite heavily D in 2020, I think Republicans will just try to gerrymander 1 district. So here is how an R gerry probably looks like:



NH-01: Trump+8, R+5
NH-02: Clinton+9, D+5

Given trends, the 2nd district would be safe D, while the 1st should still be a tossup?

I don't think it'd be tossup for long with the way Hillsborough is trending, you also have New London and the Monadnock region in NH-1 too.

I think something like this would be better for the NHGOP, they can also kinda sorta claim it's a least change map-



https://davesredistricting.org/join/840ba65a-0ffc-4af0-b470-7971db586500

Using data from the NH SOS site,  NH-1 in this is 51% Biden to 47.4% Trump,  but Biden won the state so broadly it's tough to get much better than that without an obscene map.

NH-2 is 54.8 Biden to 43.5% Trump.

[Mike Thick]

Why not just go HAM?



Not going to take the time to do 2020 data, but these were 52-41 Clinton and 52-42 Trump. McCain won the red seat by about a point and a half.

[lfromnj]

Why not just go HAM?



Not going to take the time to do 2020 data, but these were 52-41 Clinton and 52-42 Trump. McCain won the red seat by about a point and a half.

Because its still a relatively narrow trifecta of citizen legislators?

Sununu also may not want to sign something that bad while planning to run for Senate. Its the same thing Mitch Daniels did.

[Skye]

I'm proud of this monstrosity:



The 1st is Trump +10, the 2nd is Clinton +11.

Yes, that part that contains Concord and Manchester is connected to the other alright. It doesn't look like it unless you zoom in, but it's contiguous.

[muon2]

County chops in NH aren't that big of a deal, but keeping towns together is. Also, there are 259 towns, so it should be possible to get exact equality without crazy gerrymandering. This was my effort after the 2010 Census and the population deviation is 0 with no town chops.



I'll look at the 2018 ACS data on DRA (closer to 2016 total pop estimates) and see what might happen.