New Hampshire 2020 Redistricting

[Torie]

Anyone else worried can become a CT situation? Basically I can see how for the next couple redistricting cycles split control leads to court intervention and each time they draw a pretty least change map, leading to favourable outcome for Dems and a map that honestly doesn't represent COIs very well.

One has to smash mouth the existing lines as inimical to accepted neutral line drawing principles. I think that had something to do with the demise of the shape of NY-10 in this cycle, which was an extreme example of that. The meaning and application of the local Florida state law aside, there is a case to be made for the demise of the lines of FL-05 for the same reason.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Looks like the court map went into effect?

[Nyvin]

Looks like the court map went into effect?

Yes, the court approved the Special Master's recommended plan at about noon.

https://twitter.com/KlandriganUL/status/1531666556521955330

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Looks like NH Dems basically got what they wanted, eh?

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/yeargain/status/1729869225588920784?t=cEE6_wmvyMs14oC-1r7lrw...

This case went under the radar here, but not me. NH State Senate and Board of Executives are fairly extensively but this is New Hampshire. Everything is held together in a shaky manner, and depends upon local split ticketing. So it's no guarantee that both flip even though the State House seems likely to. This case sought to bring some sensibility to the maps and a district distribution more in line with the state's lean, but they failed to convince the court, and more precisely the sununu appointees.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Does anyone have a link to the new map compared to the old?

[Oryxslayer]

Does anyone have a link to the new map compared to the old?

There are no new maps being drawn here, but you can compare the old and new senate maps the DRA portal. This being NH everything is delicate when it's the minority GOP drawing the maps, which can be seen how in much the old 2010 gerrymander had collapsed under the Biden coalition. The current map is 12-12 under the 2020 election, but the most Republican district is Trump+14. Thr GOP vote os spead as much as they dare. Everything only really holds up cause the NH GOP brand has been better than the national GOP brand for a while, but there is some evidence the two are getting linked in voters minds.

If you mean the executive council, it has the same fate, only with larger districts. So the Dem vote is harder to Pack. Was gerrymandered last decade. The desire to maintain just 1 Dem pack means all other 4 are Biden-win seats, just very marginal. More marginal than they ended up on the old map in 2020 though. All won by just 52/53% for their GOP candidates in 2022.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Yeah, the EC map is a matter of when, not if it dummymanders.

[Mr.Phips]

Does anyone have a link to the new map compared to the old?

There are no new maps being drawn here, but you can compare the old and new senate maps the DRA portal. This being NH everything is delicate when it's the minority GOP drawing the maps, which can be seen how in much the old 2010 gerrymander had collapsed under the Biden coalition. The current map is 12-12 under the 2020 election, but the most Republican district is Trump+14. Thr GOP vote os spead as much as they dare. Everything only really holds up cause the NH GOP brand has been better than the national GOP brand for a while, but there is some evidence the two are getting linked in voters minds.

If you mean the executive council, it has the same fate, only with larger districts. So the Dem vote is harder to Pack. Was gerrymandered last decade. The desire to maintain just 1 Dem pack means all other 4 are Biden-win seats, just very marginal. More marginal than they ended up on the old map in 2020 though. All won by just 52/53% for their GOP candidates in 2022.

Why didnt they concede two safe Dem seats to make the majority Trump seats?

[Nyvin]

Why didnt they concede two safe Dem seats to make the majority Trump seats?

There were four R incumbents in 2021.

[Mr.Phips]

Why didnt they concede two safe Dem seats to make the majority Trump seats?

There were four R incumbents in 2021.

There were five in 2011 when they decided to concede Dems a seat.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Why didnt they concede two safe Dem seats to make the majority Trump seats?

There were four R incumbents in 2021.

There were five in 2011 when they decided to concede Dems a seat.

The 5-0 map was a perfect storm. The landslides in EC-1 and EC-4 back then were due to local institutions (Ray Burton and Ray Wieczorek) occupying the seats and they were well into their 80s. Wieczorek retired in 2012, and Pappas held it for 6 years. EC-1 has always been a battleground since Burton died in office.

Either way, it cannot be overstated how badly Feltes/the NHDP campaign f**ked this up in 2020. To lose control of the legislature and give the GOP a trifecta was a fireable offense.

[Mr.Phips]

Why didnt they concede two safe Dem seats to make the majority Trump seats?

There were four R incumbents in 2021.

There were five in 2011 when they decided to concede Dems a seat.

.

Either way, it cannot be overstated how badly Feltes/the NHDP campaign f**ked this up in 2020. To lose control of the legislature and give the GOP a trifecta was a fireable offense.

Yes those incumbent Dem State Senators who lost at the same time Biden was solidly carrying their districts never should have lost.  Dems and the Biden campaign should have made sure the voters that they turned out were straight ticket Dem voters rather than voters that were gonna stab them in the back downballot.

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Yes those incumbent Dem State Senators who lost at the same time Biden was solidly carrying their districts never should have lost.  Dems and the Biden campaign should have made sure the voters that they turned out were straight ticket Dem voters rather than voters that were gonna stab them in the back downballot.

Oh no, it's not even turnout. The NHDP statewide campaign was literally single-issue anti-Trumpism until this moment. The party itself was also deathly afraid of COVID and scaled back their in-person campaigning dramatically. Sununu's popularity, and the trifecta is a crisis of their own doing. They could have messaged on many things - mainly his fake moderation, open support of voter suppression, and his Brownbackian education policies.

Feltes himself was also uninspiring, invisible despite a clear primary challenge, and the most scripted candidate I've ever seen since Marco Rubio. Despite having a groundswell of establishment support, he nearly lost to Andru Volinsky, the progressive candidate who entered late. Everything he read was a rehearsed talking point - usually Sununu's "Trump guy through and through" line ad nauseam. Unlike Volinsky, he had no counter-message, and I'd argue his "trust me brah I don't support one" message failed to bring it up.

To give you an idea of how disastrous his campaign was, he lost his own state senate district to Sununu. It's not like it's a swing seat either. It's Concord! This is the third-bluest district in the country, and he lost it with geographic advantage. You do literally one more thing right and the state senate holds.

The really aggravating thing is that a Republican voted against the EC map. The 2020 map split the North Country into two, and a senator from there voted against it. You hold literally one seat and you stem the bleeding. Instead they soyjakked about how they beat Trump by 8 points while baking GOP control in for 10 more years. Planned Parenthood is defunded and the Dem agenda will be neutered, but hey, you sure owned Orange Man this time!

Has the NHDP learned? Yes and no. They're still single-issue, but they're beating the drum of Dobbs instead. Which objectively works, especially since Ayotte is directly connected to the Dobbs court. Sununu is a strong operative, but he couldn't have done this well without Democratic incompetence. This was not a few state senators - this was the symptom of a party that was fundamentally broken and sick.