New Hampshire 2020 Redistricting

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/KlandriganUL/status/1479459480198946817?s=20

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/KlandriganUL/status/1479459480198946817?s=20

Interesting. I guess the GOP is more divided on strategy than it looked.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Talk is cheap

[Oryxslayer]

Talk is cheap

Yes, an appearance of a 'reluctantly doing what the party wants' is what this points too, since it allows him to once again do a partisan move while attempting to appear #moderate.

Even if they are vetoed, expect the redrawn 1st to be less Democratic than previously.

[Dan the Roman]

Talk is cheap

Yes, an appearance of a 'reluctantly doing what the party wants' is what this points too, since it allows him to once again do a partisan move while attempting to appear #moderate.

Even if they are vetoed, expect the redrawn 1st to be less Democratic than previously.

He'd prefer Papas to think he has a shot at reelection. And does not really care about the national GOP holding a house majority or not. Owes them little, and likes them barely at all.

Furthermore, a lot depends here on what sort of R gets the seat. An establishment one is fine, but one who is lightning rod is a potential liability so this may be about playing games with the primary

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/KlandriganUL/status/1479459480198946817?s=20

For me, to see Sununu express a degree of dissatisfaction with the map is in line with expectations.

[Brother Jonathan]

https://twitter.com/AdamSextonWMUR/status/1484521302673301508

Sununu is continuing to push back on the maps passed by the House, but it also sounds to me like he is clearly giving himself some room to sign the map if the Senate won't change it.

[Brittain33]

It’s all noise without a veto threat.

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/wmur9/status/1500910087120068613?s=21

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Do y'all think there's a chance for Sununu to veto?

[Mr.Phips]

Do y'all think there's a chance for Sununu to veto?

No he’ll basically do what DeWine did in Ohio. 

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/AdamSextonWMUR/status/1504463189144219657

https://twitter.com/KlandriganUL/status/1504465901994790913

Updates out of the Granite State. Sununu veto confirmed. Between Florida, New Hampshire, and Missouri, R Trifectas have been having a rough go of it this cycle, relatively speaking.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/KlandriganUL/status/1504465901994790913

Updates out of the Granite State. Sununu veto confirmed. Between Florida, New Hampshire, and Missouri, R Trifectas have been having a rough go of it this cycle, relatively speaking.

Sununu seems to understand what the GOP does not: breaking the 100-year Rockingham-Belknap-Strafford-Carroll arrangement might be too much political capital and come back to bite them when the dems use the lack of precedent to do their own thing. Even if this arrangement is preserved, you can still be selectively favorable and remove Manchester city and add in some suburbs or rural areas to benefit the NH-01 GOP.

[Brother Jonathan]

https://twitter.com/KlandriganUL/status/1504465901994790913

Updates out of the Granite State. Sununu veto confirmed. Between Florida, New Hampshire, and Missouri, R Trifectas have been having a rough go of it this cycle, relatively speaking.

Sununu seems to understand what the GOP does not: breaking the 100-year Rockingham-Belknap-Strafford-Carroll arrangement might be too much political capital and come back to bite them when the dems use the lack of precedent to do their own thing. Even if this arrangement is preserved, you can still be selectively favorable and remove Manchester city and add in some suburbs or rural areas to benefit the NH-01 GOP.

I think that is at least part of what he is thinking. You can make much less egregious maps that still make NH-01 much more favorable to the GOP while also not making NH-02 totally unwinnable (though it is still a reach for sure). I also think Sununu knows the cost of a veto here is probably lower than if he signs it, since I can see how it might have been a minor issue in the election but now it gets relegated to an intraparty squabble that could possibly be pretty quietly patched up.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/KlandriganUL/status/1504465901994790913

Updates out of the Granite State. Sununu veto confirmed. Between Florida, New Hampshire, and Missouri, R Trifectas have been having a rough go of it this cycle, relatively speaking.

Sununu seems to understand what the GOP does not: breaking the 100-year Rockingham-Belknap-Strafford-Carroll arrangement might be too much political capital and come back to bite them when the dems use the lack of precedent to do their own thing. Even if this arrangement is preserved, you can still be selectively favorable and remove Manchester city and add in some suburbs or rural areas to benefit the NH-01 GOP.

I think that is at least part of what he is thinking. You can make much less egregious maps that still make NH-01 much more favorable to the GOP while also not making NH-02 totally unwinnable (though it is still a reach for sure). I also think Sununu knows the cost of a veto here is probably lower than if he signs it, since I can see how it might have been a minor issue in the election but now it gets relegated to an intraparty squabble that could possibly be pretty quietly patched up.

Yeah that's the other, personal side of things. Similar to DeSantis, Sununu's strength is his image, only as a supposed moderate rather than a fire-breather like DeSantis. Both saw/are seeing their image tarnished by national forces when they tried to go national: Sununu got tons of hit pieces and saw his approval drop during the Senate speculation period, DeSantis is deemed insufficiently loyal to Trump and an upstart. Both are therefore picking high-profile fights with the amorphous blob of their state party that is easily framed so as to bolster their images.

[Brother Jonathan]

https://twitter.com/KlandriganUL/status/1504465901994790913

Updates out of the Granite State. Sununu veto confirmed. Between Florida, New Hampshire, and Missouri, R Trifectas have been having a rough go of it this cycle, relatively speaking.

Sununu seems to understand what the GOP does not: breaking the 100-year Rockingham-Belknap-Strafford-Carroll arrangement might be too much political capital and come back to bite them when the dems use the lack of precedent to do their own thing. Even if this arrangement is preserved, you can still be selectively favorable and remove Manchester city and add in some suburbs or rural areas to benefit the NH-01 GOP.

I think that is at least part of what he is thinking. You can make much less egregious maps that still make NH-01 much more favorable to the GOP while also not making NH-02 totally unwinnable (though it is still a reach for sure). I also think Sununu knows the cost of a veto here is probably lower than if he signs it, since I can see how it might have been a minor issue in the election but now it gets relegated to an intraparty squabble that could possibly be pretty quietly patched up.

Yeah that's the other, personal side of things. Similar to DeSantis, Sununu's strength is his image, only as a supposed moderate rather than a fire-breather like DeSantis. Both saw/are seeing their image tarnished by national forces when they tried to go national: Sununu got tons of hit pieces and saw his approval drop during the Senate speculation period, DeSantis is deemed insufficiently loyal to Trump and an upstart. Both are therefore picking high-profile fights with the amorphous blob of their state party that is easily framed so as to bolster their images.

That comparison occurred to me as well. Of course, they have very different images but yes, its a very similar dynamic at play. I think this would have gone differently if Sununu had been running for Senate or faced a more serious potential primary challenge, but for where he is keeping up that independent image helps him more than appeasing the state party.

[IAMCANADIAN]

Chris Sununu is a clown and is working for the democrats. Convince me otherwise.

[Torie]

If I were Sununu, I would just say that while some other governors have found favor with obvious gerrymanders, he is not one of them, and there is no reason for NH to go there in particular, so let's just draw a clean map, which also just happens to make both seats competitive to varying degrees, and that is a good thing rather than  bad thing. The end. And given the numbers, he will get his way, and it does burnish a more non partisan image, and that is a good thing too in a country that is ever more packed with unpleasant partisan hacks.

[BoiseBoy]

Chris Sununu is a clown and is working for the democrats. Convince me otherwise.

Why bother when you’re incapable of understanding that bad maps should not be passed?

[IAMCANADIAN]

Chris Sununu is a clown and is working for the democrats. Convince me otherwise.

Why bother when you’re incapable of understanding that bad maps should not be passed?

If you use efficiency gap metrics such as what is "required" in Ohio and North Carolina, the GOP map is better.

A 1-1 split in New Hampshire is more fair than a 2-0 map. In an ideal world I would be ok with a minimal change map in  but seeing what happened in those two states as well as Democratic drawn maps in a few other states it is fair to do some soft Gerrymandering.

[Torie]

Who knew that "soft gerrymanders" could be so butt ugly?

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is such a dumb hill for the GOP to die on anyway. The choice is between 1-1-0 and 0-0-2. Be sure to win one seat vs have a good shot at winning two. I understand that the legislature prefers the former, but is it really that bad? For all we known Sununu's map might end up netting the GOP more seats.

Honestly I don't even like either map. They're both ugly and don't follow meaningful CoIs, although the GOP map is particularly ridiculous.

[Brother Jonathan]

If I were Sununu, I would just say that while some other governors have found favor with obvious gerrymanders, he is not one of them, and there is no reason for NH to go there in particular, so let's just draw a clean map, which also just happens to make both seats competitive to varying degrees, and that is a good thing rather than  bad thing. The end. And given the numbers, he will get his way, and it does burnish a more non partisan image, and that is a good thing too in a country that is ever more packed with unpleasant partisan hacks.

I mean that is essentially what he did say to reporters today:

"I want something [a map] that more matches the character of the state. We're a purple state. I want Republicans over in CD2 to know they can get a good candidate and win and be part of the process, and  Democrats in CD1 to be part of the process as opposed to saying 'well, the Democrat in CD2 is going to have the job as long as they want it and the Republican in CD1 is going to have the job as long as they want it.' That's just not who we are in terms of the character of New Hampshire, that's not the live free or die spirit, and so I think everyone right now what everybody is looking for is a little more of a balance."

I'll also say, as a registered Republican (who, granted, comes from CD2), this was the right call on principle but also politically. As others have noted this sort of gerrymander is just so pointless, especially when CD1, as proposed, was still close in 2020—I mean Shaheen won it in the Senate race with around 52.5% of the vote. There is no real way to wave proof a GOP seat in NH against strong candidates, so it's really not worth it. Just draw a softer gerrymander if you really want to and find better candidates.

I will say I see where the Republican logic is coming from, as CD2 has been a hard hill for them to climb as of late. They tend to think CD2 is already something of a Democratic-leaning seat, at least that is the impression I get, so they just see their proposal as shoring up CD1 without actually making CD2 any less competitive in a meaningful sense. I tend to disagree, again because it all comes down to candidates and the campaigns they have run. I think Kuster is a pretty poor incumbent, but she hasn't faced strong and well-organized competition since she defeated Charlie Bass (and yet the 2016 race was still managed to be pretty close), so it's not fair to totally write off the GOP's ability to win in CD2 in a good environment with the right candidate.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/RedistrictNet/status/1506346359456210947?s=20&t=3R3DRCfJ...

[Minnesota Mike]

Sununu plan on DRA.


https://davesredistricting.org/join/317a7577-1b7a-4b15-83eb-973e381d2e87