New Hampshire 2020 Redistricting

[lfromnj]

It's just funny that R's are going to town in NH of all places after showing restraint in so many red states.

Well 2 factors
Legislatively its a matter of survival basically. Congressionaly is the fact they want 1/2 seats.

[Mr.Phips]

It's just funny that R's are going to town in NH of all places after showing restraint in so many red states.

Well 2 factors
Legislatively its a matter of survival basically. Congressionaly is the fact they want 1/2 seats.

NH Dems had to have been the most incompetent state party in the nation (outside of Florida) in 2020.   How do you lose control of both chambers of a legislature (when you have incumbents in them) when Biden easily won a majority of the seats?

[Nyvin]

It's just funny that R's are going to town in NH of all places after showing restraint in so many red states.

Well 2 factors
Legislatively its a matter of survival basically. Congressionaly is the fact they want 1/2 seats.

NH Dems had to have been the most incompetent state party in the nation (outside of Florida) in 2020.   How do you lose control of both chambers of a legislature (when you have incumbents in them) when Biden easily won a majority of the seats?

Voters in NH hate the idea of paying state taxes, that's really all it is.

[Nyvin]

They're voting on the maps now...kind of out of nowhere as far as I can tell

https://nhhouse.edifymultimedia.com/

[Nyvin]

The vote failed 177 to 178 for HB52, which is the congressional map

[Oryxslayer]

The vote failed 177 to 178 for HB52, which is the congressional map

Well then....

[BoiseBoy]

https://twitter.com/AdamSextonWMUR/status/1478825132823044104?s=20

[Nyvin]

oh, the 177 to 178 vote was to dismiss the Congressional map.

[BoiseBoy]

oh, the 177 to 178 vote was to dismiss the Congressional map.

House rejects the Democrat's least change plan. Looks like the GOP map will be the final one?
https://twitter.com/KlandriganUL/status/1478827650114277376?s=20

[BoiseBoy]

Map passes House on a 186-164 vote. Good luck New Hampshire you're in for a world of pain the next few years.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

All eyes on the NH State Senate now...

[Nyvin]

All eyes on the NH State Senate now...

From what I've heard the Senate is a lock to pass the map, if it was going to fail anywhere it would've been the House.

[lfromnj]

All eyes on the NH State Senate now...

Sununu. The senate is way more partisan

[BoiseBoy]

All eyes on the NH State Senate now...

Sununu. The senate is way more partisan

He won't veto it. It's not like it even matters since most of the district both swung and trended away from Republicans from 2012-2020 anyway.

https://twitter.com/imbecilesrus/status/1478839357918351364?s=20

[GALeftist]

RIP Pappas. Seat will likely still be competitive from 2024 on though.

[BoiseBoy]

RIP Pappas. Seat will likely still be competitive from 2022 on though.

The seat he's in only went to Trump by 1.7 and is trending to the left. Pappas is in danger but he's not necessarily screwed.

[Nyvin]

RIP Pappas. Seat will likely still be competitive from 2022 on though.

The seat he's in only went to Trump by 1.7 and is trending to the left. Pappas is in danger but he's not necessarily screwed.

Ironically it's almost exactly the same margin Trump won the current NH-1 by in 2016, of course Carol Shea-Porter won the seat that year so...

[BoiseBoy]

RIP Pappas. Seat will likely still be competitive from 2022 on though.

The seat he's in only went to Trump by 1.7 and is trending to the left. Pappas is in danger but he's not necessarily screwed.

Ironically it's almost exactly the same margin Trump won the current NH-1 by in 2016, of course Carol Shea-Porter won the seat that year so...

Trump won the new NH-1 by 9.2 in 2016.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

GOP are homophobes for axing Pappas (jokes)

[Meatball Ron]

RIP Pappas. Seat will likely still be competitive from 2022 on though.

The seat he's in only went to Trump by 1.7 and is trending to the left. Pappas is in danger but he's not necessarily screwed.

Ironically it's almost exactly the same margin Trump won the current NH-1 by in 2016, of course Carol Shea-Porter won the seat that year so...

Trump won the new NH-1 by 9.2 in 2016.

Nyvin is saying that Trump won the old NH-1 in 2016 by the same margin he won the new NH-1 in 2020. Trump's 2016 performance in the new NH-1 is not of interest for this comparison.

[ElectionsGuy]

Map passes House on a 186-164 vote. Good luck New Hampshire you're in for a world of pain the next few years.

lol what?

Since NH only has two districts, R's are willfully giving up their chances on the 2nd district so they can have more of a lock on the 1st for the decade. It's a tradeoff that will actually hurt them in 2022, if anything.

[Meatball Ron]

Map passes House on a 186-164 vote. Good luck New Hampshire you're in for a world of pain the next few years.

lol what?

Since NH only has two districts, R's are willfully giving up their chances on the 2nd district so they can have more of a lock on the 1st for the decade. It's a tradeoff that will actually hurt them in 2022, if anything.

Kuster won by 10 against a strong opponent in 2014 of all years. She was never going to lose in '22 under the old map. So I disagree, this map *does* help the GOP in '22 (though it's neutral or slightly beneficial to Dems in the longer term)

[ProgressiveModerate]

Ye as others have pointed out, you can’t really gerrymander NH as it’s a swing state with 2 districts.

I feel like this indicates the GOP believes on average Dems will win more votes statewide because if they felt they’d win statewide more often than not they’d be better off making 2 seats which roughly vote in line with the state. Instead, they’d rather have 1 seat that holds until the state gets to about D + 10

Ironically even though this is an “R gerrymander”, it still should on average produce a slightly better delegation for Dems than neighboring Maine which is bluer as of now and whose maps were bipartisan

[Former President tack50]

I disagree with the notion that one cam't gerrymander. One can very easily gerrymander, NH isn't quite a perfectly neutral state?

It is incredibly easy to see that a map that has a Trump+2 and Biden+16 seats is much better for the GOP than a map that has say, two Biden+7 seats

Sure, in a wave they might flip one of the Biden+7 seats (or both) but they are very heavy lifts?

[MT Treasurer]

This gerrymander seems weird even if it could have been a lot worse (moving the Seacoast towns into NH-2 was their smartest move). I guess it could backfire in a GOP wave year if the non-college-based rural/small-town parts of the old NH-02 start zooming to the right, but I still approve of the NH GOP drawing out the lone male member of the Congressional delegation and shoring up Kusty. They clearly know what the voters in their state want.

Pappas will probably run again in 2024 or 2026, and I could see this NH-1 quickly becoming a perennial swing seat again like in the 2010s (while Democrats ironically have less to worry about NH-02 after this GOP gerrymander).